Ivan the Terrible

[wisten]

This guy has mean written all over him.. pinballing in strength, and looks to be making reservations in the Gulf of Mexico for an extended stay...

 

[exiledNms]

Here's hoping Ivan crosses the Central American peninsula in an area where nobody lives, & then just dies out....

 

[U-A]

Lord, stay away from the Gulf

 

[POWERLINEMAN42]

hate to say this but i think its gonna hit the gulf :conf3:

 

[BamaLuver]

Would it be too much to wish for a strong low pressure system over our area around the first of next week??

 

[U-A]

I mean, I feel bad because I don't wish it to maybe hit Florida.....like I have sometimes when a Hurricane goes up that way.....but they have suffered enough.

 

[BamaLuver]

I agree U-A. Maybe it'll just head off into the hills of Mexico.

 

[wisten]

BTW, the image I linked changes to show the current path

 

[TexasBama]

Here's another site

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/09L.html

 

[rizolltizide]

Please, two storms in a couple of weeks is enough for anyone. I've got a bad feeling in my stomach about this one. I only got about 4 hrs. of sleep Sat. and Sun. nights as it was. I don't wish these things on anyone but Florida is set for a while on the receiving end.

 

[CrimsonNan]

Please, two storms in a couple of weeks is enough for anyone. I've got a bad feeling in my stomach about this one. I only got about 4 hrs. of sleep Sat. and Sun. nights as it was. I don't wish these things on anyone but Florida is set for a while on the receiving end.

I have a bad feeling about this one too. My brother and his wife live in Tampa, and I've already called them about the first two hurricanes concerned about their welfare. Now I'm worried again.

 

[IH8Orange]

Ivan is now Category 5 with 160 mph sustained winds.

...and still forecast to strengthen more.

There might be little left of Jamaica after he's through.

 

[bwdial]

This may be the killer we've feared for so long. Tampa has been really lucky as far as these things are concerned, but I am fearing our luck may be about to run out.

 

[FAYETTE4BAMA]

God bless and be safe!

 

[U-A]

And now it starts to turn towards Florida


WOW

 

[TexasBama]

The track being predicted goes through Jamaica, Havana & Key West. Note that the predicted track is an average of several computer models. The forecast error is large; point being, there's not very many places out of the woods.

 

[wisten]

Any of us from Texas to Florida could get a taste of this monster, though I lean towards it hitting south florida in a glancing blow, then hitting ....

*gulp*

Pensacola/Panama City area..

 

[BamaLuver]

Shift to the West??

From the latest discussion -- today at 5pm:

There were some indications from microwave data and now confirmed with the plane that Ivan has a double eyewall structure. This may explain the recent slight weakening.

As mentioned in the previous discussion...there is high confidence in this portion of the forecast because the hurricane will be steered by the flow
surrounding a well-established subtropical ridge. All models are highly clustered during this period...bringing the hurricane near or over Jamaica...the Cayman Islands and western Cuba with a decrease in forward speed.

Thereafter...the track continues to be uncertain since steering currents are forecast to weaken and models diverge. However...models from 12z are in slightly better agreement than in earlier runs...and in general have shifted a little bit westward. The official forecast also shows a slight westward shift.

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see the forecast shift westward -- seems the low pressure system is losing its punch. That'd be good for VJ and the east coast of Florida ... bad for the west coast of Florida and anyone else in the gulf region.

 

[wisten]

If the low develops over Alabama, Ivan would veer closer to Florida; if it develops over Arkansas, it would move farther west over open water toward the upper Gulf Coast, he said.

I am liking this less and less. This one has nasty written all over it.

CNN

 

[BamaLuver]

Sat's Update:

And it's not looking much better today either....

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 38
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2004

Water vapor images show that a ridge of high pressure at the mid to upper-levels has developed from the Gulf of Mexico eastward across Florida. It appears that this ridge has been forcing the hurricane on a more westward track...delaying the expected northwest and northward turn. This track increases the hurricane risk for the northeastern Gulf of Mexico region and decreases it for South Florida.