Link: Per Lane Kiffin-"Dynasties are over"

[Cruiser]

Yesterday GMac was discussing how few teams; only 5 weeks into the season, were winning games by an average of more than 14 points compared to previous years. I think it was something like only 4 teams in the SEC? The betting lines are tighter. Bama probably finished the 2020 season winning by some crazy number; like 30? The "second tier" teams are much more competitive with their ability to re-make their rosters due to re-distribution of talent. FSU has 50 new players; State has 36 and they are totally different teams.

 

[TideEngineer08]

the Bama mystique permeated Thursday night football last night. Matt Stafford (UGA) VS Mac Jones. In overtime, At home, the Rams forego the chip shot FG to tie the game and go for it on 4th and 1 and don’t make it. Mac Jones Wins Again!

Stafford is 0-2 vs. Alabama QBs this year.

Jones is making quite the comeback as well. Now 3-0, and he's having to play without SF's top 3 WRs.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Stafford is 0-2 vs. Alabama QBs this year.

Jones is making quite the comeback as well. Now 3-0, and he's having to play without SF's top 3 WRs.

Will they learn their lesson?

 

[bamaga]

Stafford is 0-2 vs. Alabama QBs this year.

Jones is making quite the comeback as well. Now 3-0, and he's having to play without SF's top 3 WRs.

It’s all system and fit. Yes, in Shanahan’s system, Mac can flourish. If they drafted him in ‘21, his Career would be different. Got to see him wait and show what he can do. Another example , Sam Darnold. Looked terrible in New York and Carolina. In Minnesota and now Seattle, one of the best QB’s in the league

 

[cdub55]

It will never be broken or tied or close to it because of how the game has so quickly changed.

It’s as safe as Cy Young’s Win total, DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak, Rickey’s SB records, Ripken’s Consecutive Starts streak..etc.

HC's are getting younger and younger and to think someone who starts out coaching at 30 and has 35-40 shots at a title can't get 8 is a stretch. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Absolutely.

 

[TideEngineer08]

It’s all system and fit. Yes, in Shanahan’s system, Mac can flourish. If they drafted him in ‘21, his Career would be different. Got to see him wait and show what he can do. Another example , Sam Darnold. Looked terrible in New York and Carolina. In Minnesota and now Seattle, one of the best QB’s in the league

It is that way with every QB. Very few, in very rare circumstances, would excel in any system you drop them into. And even those would struggle or fail if the system was being run by incompetence.

"System QB" is one of the most overused and overrated phrases in football. What NE did with Mac (and the entire franchise post-Brady) was criminal. Moronic, and criminal.

 

[Cruloc]

HC's are getting younger and younger and to think someone who starts out coaching at 30 and has 35-40 shots at a title can't get 8 is a stretch. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Absolutely.

A coach at the age of Lanning could indeed. He's 39. Ryan Day is 46 and has a title. DeBoer is 50. Kirby is 49. Cristobal is 55.

Someone like Lanning, if he got 2 in his 40's, a couple in his 50's....sure, he could get to 6 or 7 eventually. If he decided to keep going for that many years.

I do like the Cy Young reference though. Baseball has changed so much from his time that no one will ever come close to 511. #2 guy, Walter Johnson has 417. Or the Cal Ripken reference....with him at 2632 consecutive games and the only active player over 500 is Matt Olsen. Baseball changed.

 

[Bama197]

[/QUOTE]

``Water is not wet; wetness is a description of the sensation experienced when a liquid, like water, comes into contact with a solid surface. Therefore, while water can make other things wet, it itself is not considered wet.''

Interesting

 

[BAMARICH]

It's an easy thing to say, but...

It's not necessarily true. It's a bit like saying free agency ended the dynasties in pro sports, which at first glance makes sense. If you could just keep a Bill Russell or a Babe Ruth, having a dynasty was much easier. But we still saw dynasties form after that.

Kiffin's statements are under the assumption that rosters will still have to radically change from year to year, but that's not necessarily the case. We're seeing the rise of extended eligibility, I predicted that with NIL and Alabama is about to face a guy playing in his six year of college football.

How does that apply to potential dynasties? Well, let's say Oregon football ends up with a pretty good trio of skill players. Let's say for example, it's along the lines of Jacob Coker, Ardarius Stewart, and Derrick Henry.

I chose Stewart (instead of Ridley) and the year Coker was there for a reason. Coker and Stewart both made less than a million a year under their rookie contract. With current NIL payments, paying them more than that, especially for a program like Oregon is trivial. Even Henry was making less than two million a year!

So, you offer Stewart and Coker a million a year to keep playing college, and you expect continued development from both of them. You pay Henry 3 million a year or so, and he continues to brutalize college football. You can build a dynasty around that sort of thing. To apply that even within current confines, Cam Newton only played 3 years in the FBS and one of those years he played little enough to redshirt. So, you can have Cam Newton at least two more years without changing the status quo.

That's just one scenario, but NIL, rich boosters, and breaking the eligibility rules will open new pathways to domination. What might be more accurate is that we can't necessarily expect the same dynasties we've seen in the past moving forward, because now it's more about deep pockets than anything else.

With the rules currently in place, CLK is absolutely correct. The major issue with college football is that it takes so many people on a roster to establish a dynasty whereas basketball by comparison is so much easier. Even colleges with deep pockets won't be able to sustain it.

 

[KrAzY3]

With the rules currently in place, CLK is absolutely correct. The major issue with college football is that it takes so many people on a roster to establish a dynasty whereas basketball by comparison is so much easier. Even colleges with deep pockets won't be able to sustain it.

TLDR is that Ohio State won a championship because their boosters got together and decided they needed to spend more to win one. They did that. Continued success largely rests with whether or not they continue to do so, at least until the current pool of talent they have dries up.

Phil Knight has spent over a billion on Oregon athletics. Ellison reportedly spent 10 million on a QB recruit for Michigan. I don't know if the claim that Oregon is spending 40 million a year on NIL alone is accurate, but Phil Knight is worth about 1,000 times that. My net worth might take a bigger hit when I go to an Alabama game than that would take on his net worth.

We're not talking about needing to meet an NFL salary cap, which for the record is 279 million, even Knight and Ellison would stop well short of that (though they could easily afford it indefinitely). But for example, the next highest level of professional football is the CFL and they have a cap of 6 million. They field an entire team of professionals for 6 million maximum.

That gets you a (now veteran) QB like Chad Kelly, who went 10-3 in the SEC and threw for 4,000 yards and 31 TDs. Once you get to the point that you're spending 5 times that much, what you're able to do is pretty substantial. The key there is many programs can not afford that. If you're not Ohio State, Texas, or a few other programs you can't keep up unless you too have your own Phil Knight. That technically would make building a dynasty easier.

Lane Kiffin's statements are entirely accurate from an Ole Miss perspective, no one anywhere near the program can spend with Phil Knight or Larry Ellison. It also is true for Georgia and Alabama. But as things stand now, with even the limits of eligibility being pushed and costs continuing to increase, whether or not we see continued dynasties likely rest with how much people with billions in spare cash laying around want to see one.

Remember we now live in a world where people are paying 250 million for WNBA teams, that's a league that's never made a profit in it's entire existence. Sports have become a playground for wealth.

Edit: To put it into a perspective that Kiffin will never have because he's at Ole Miss, there's the other side to NIL which some schools can start to exploit, and that's keeping their players from leaving for the NFL. Let's just take Ohio State for example, let's say they win the championship this year. Well, Caleb Downs will be eligible to leave for the draft, where he's likely to be top 10. With NIL though they can offer him enough to come back, and even without breaking the now fragile eligibility rules, that's still another year of elite play at that position. Then there's Sayin, he's not going to be eligible yet, but if he continues to play great they can pay him extra to stick around at least two more years.

Mind you, I'm not saying Ohio State WILL win a championship this year, but I'm just saying they have a path towards building a dynasty as long as their boosters pay up. Also, those are not the best examples because one of the better tricks is a lot of value moves, like when Alabama was able to get Reichard to come back another year. Just wise NIL spends could keep several guys from declaring for the draft, Alabama lost a lot of talent not just to the first couple rounds but also guys leaving early like Vinnie Sunseri. NIL can help keep those guys around longer.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

I disagree. With the right coach, a Dynasty can exist. I hear about NiL and the transfer portal, and that is helping some lesser teams, but as an example, Alabama has 64 four and five star players on the roster. That is three deep on offense and defense. The rest are three star kids . It’s not like top teams are fielding walkons. And those numbers are after Bama lost 30 transfers after Nick left. And with the new 100 scholarship rule, I can see those numbers getting better. The only difference is good teams will be younger because the older players that have sat for 2 years will transfer. Upper classmen and
Experienced depth will be a premium.

It isn't just about the the talent. NIL is affecting attitudes as much as talent levels.

THAT is why Coach Saban left the NFL...and ultimately CFB.

The players today are more difficult to coach/motivate than they were 10 or 20 years ago.

 

[dtgreg]

TLDR is that Ohio State won a championship because their boosters got together and decided they needed to spend more to win one. They did that. Continued success largely rests with whether or not they continue to do so, at least until the current pool of talent they have dries up.

Phil Knight has spent over a billion on Oregon athletics. Ellison reportedly spent 10 million on a QB recruit for Michigan. I don't know if the claim that Oregon is spending 40 million a year on NIL alone is accurate, but Phil Knight is worth about 1,000 times that. My net worth might take a bigger hit when I go to an Alabama game than that would take on his net worth.

We're not talking about needing to meet an NFL salary cap, which for the record is 279 million, even Knight and Ellison would stop well short of that (though they could easily afford it indefinitely). But for example, the next highest level of professional football is the CFL and they have a cap of 6 million. They field an entire team of professionals for 6 million maximum.

That gets you a (now veteran) QB like Chad Kelly, who went 10-3 in the SEC and threw for 4,000 yards and 31 TDs. Once you get to the point that you're spending 5 times that much, what you're able to do is pretty substantial. The key there is many programs can not afford that. If you're not Ohio State, Texas, or a few other programs you can't keep up unless you too have your own Phil Knight. That technically would make building a dynasty easier.

Lane Kiffin's statements are entirely accurate from an Ole Miss perspective, no one anywhere near the program can spend with Phil Knight or Larry Ellison. It also is true for Georgia and Alabama. But as things stand now, with even the limits of eligibility being pushed and costs continuing to increase, whether or not we see continued dynasties likely rest with how much people with billions in spare cash laying around want to see one.

Remember we now live in a world where people are paying 250 million for WNBA teams, that's a league that's never made a profit in it's entire existence. Sports have become a playground for wealth.

Edit: To put it into a perspective that Kiffin will never have because he's at Ole Miss, there's the other side to NIL which some schools can start to exploit, and that's keeping their players from leaving for the NFL. Let's just take Ohio State for example, let's say they win the championship this year. Well, Caleb Downs will be eligible to leave for the draft, where he's likely to be top 10. With NIL though they can offer him enough to come back, and even without breaking the now fragile eligibility rules, that's still another year of elite play at that position. Then there's Sayin, he's not going to be eligible yet, but if he continues to play great they can pay him extra to stick around at least two more years.

Mind you, I'm not saying Ohio State WILL win a championship this year, but I'm just saying they have a path towards building a dynasty as long as their boosters pay up. Also, those are not the best examples because one of the better tricks is a lot of value moves, like when Alabama was able to get Reichard to come back another year. Just wise NIL spends could keep several guys from declaring for the draft, Alabama lost a lot of talent not just to the first couple rounds but also guys leaving early like Vinnie Sunseri. NIL can help keep those guys around longer.

Help me out here. Are you saying that with Rookie caps in the NFL, NIL can beat a NFL starting salary/contract in terms of money or guarantees? Like high first-round-draft-pick numbers?Honest question. I have no clue about the numbers.

 

[KrAzY3]

Help me out here. Are you saying that with Rookie caps in the NFL, NIL can beat a NFL starting salary/contract in terms of money or guarantees? Like high first-round-draft-pick numbers?Honest question. I have no clue about the numbers.

Yes, they can in certain situations. There are already several college players who are likely to make more in college than they ever make in the NFL.

Now, this is going back a bit in time but for instance when I mentioned Coker's NFL contract or Stewart's NFL contract, both those guys were making less than a million a year in the NFL and it wasn't guaranteed!

Now specifically first round guaranteed money, at least at the top of the first round, probably not wise to try to do that. Bryce had around 10 million a year guaranteed. What you can do with NIL though is move people who are on the fence. Even going back to pre-NIL there were a lot of QBs who agonized over leaving for the draft or not, it is certainly within NIL budgets and what's going on now to offer a multi-million dollar deal to keep a QB around.

The best bang for buck could be a Tebow like player, his NFL deal was a little over 2 million a year, certainly worth is in today's NIL market. I'm kind of covering two different scenarios though. One is the extended eligibility, for instance Diego Pavia could have a 7th year of eligibility, which he says he won't use but the eligibility rule will continue to be challenged. Once you do that, you have the potential to keep a core together. Then it's just a matter of assembling the right pieces.

Then there's the strike while the iron is hot type of situation like Ohio State currently has (their head coach currently has the highest winning percentage of all time). Which is you invest in a good roster, then if you can continue to invest you can at least for a few years keep the key pieces together. It will be expensive, but a few schools can afford it, up to a point at least. If you have a championship caliber team, it makes it easier to write the checks I'm sure.

There's the third variation though, which is the value proposition and that's being used as well but could be used more effectively if someone gives it the moneyball treatment. We know the downside of NIL and the portal, you can lose key backups. The upside though is you no longer should have holes anywhere on your roster. You lose a QB? You can get a QB (that's what Ohio State did, they already had the next one lined up via NIL). You lose a kicker? You can get a kicker.

So a school can now spend up to 20 million themselves on NIL (plus what ever boosters spend) and the roster of scholarship player can now go up to 100. That's quite a bit. The key here by the way is only so many schools can afford to keep up, Alabama football alone makes more than all but about 25 of the athletic departments, their department takes in over double what UCLA or Maryland does.

If you use the money wisely, you won't ever have bad special teams play again. You can affordably find elite kickers, punters, snappers, and returners anytime you need one. You won't have players leaving early for the middle rounds, you can always afford to pay them more than their rookie contracts will be. Only about a dozen programs in my opinion can afford to keep up at all with NIL, it is an expensive proposition but of those programs, it's just a matter of spending wisely. Which is no different than the NFL, or any other league, where dynasties do continue to exist. In fact, I think since there's no cap and there's so much stratification, it's might be easier now to build a dynasty in college football than the NFL and in fact might be easier than before if you have the means.

 

[Rush]

It isn't just about the the talent. NIL is affecting attitudes as much as talent levels.

THAT is why Coach Saban left the NFL...and ultimately CFB.

The players today are more difficult to coach/motivate than they were 10 or 20 years ago.

Well said...

Hence why every time I see someone trying to gain traction on X by positing that Coach Saban may return to coaching, I can't help but laugh...

 

[Windsortide]

He may be right. There is a new landscape in college football. We will find out over the next decade.