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Players leaving early for the draft

twofbyc

twofbyc

Hall of Fame
Oct 14, 2009
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XXIII said:
Or he may be weighing what it would be like to be a starting quarterback - and face of a franchise - in the NFL (arguably the most highly regarded position in all of sports) vs. work his way through the Oakland A's farm system...

While his odds of succeeding in the MLB long-term may be marginally higher, the guaranteed money for a first round QB should be way higher than the first contract for an MLB draft pick. Not sure why so many are questioning the logic?
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When they see how short he really is at the combine, I doubt ( and several scouts have already said) he goes in the first round. I really don’t believe he’s even 5’10”.
Kirk Cousins just got a huge contract with Minnesota - but 1) he’s not a top ten QB IMO and 2) he showed it this year. So some team may throw tens of millions at KM...and they may not.
He can “potentially” get big money fast in the NFL, but I’ll go on record now saying he’ll never be a top ten QB. In MLB he could be an All Star and have a (I love this) “marginally” longer career.
It all depends on what he wants more and if he buys in to his decision completely.


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Snuffy Smith

Snuffy Smith

All-American
Sep 12, 2012
3,671
900
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Huntsville, AL
twofbyc said:
When they see how short he really is at the combine, I doubt ( and several scouts have already said) he goes in the first round. I really don’t believe he’s even 5’10”.
Kirk Cousins just got a huge contract with Minnesota - but 1) he’s not a top ten QB IMO and 2) he showed it this year. So some team may throw tens of millions at KM...and they may not.
He can “potentially” get big money fast in the NFL, but I’ll go on record now saying he’ll never be a top ten QB. In MLB he could be an All Star and have a (I love this) “marginally” longer career.
It all depends on what he wants more and if he buys in to his decision completely.


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Click to expand...
Some too early radio guy (I was on the way to the airport @ 5AM) said KM was not much more than 5’8”. He didn’t act like he was joking. I think his words were basically “what GM is going to go out on that much of a limb to take a 5’8” QB regardless of what he looked like in college”?




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X

XXIII

Scout Team
Feb 3, 2011
109
0
0
Atlanta, GA
twofbyc said:
When they see how short he really is at the combine, I doubt ( and several scouts have already said) he goes in the first round. I really don’t believe he’s even 5’10”.
Kirk Cousins just got a huge contract with Minnesota - but 1) he’s not a top ten QB IMO and 2) he showed it this year. So some team may throw tens of millions at KM...and they may not.
He can “potentially” get big money fast in the NFL, but I’ll go on record now saying he’ll never be a top ten QB. In MLB he could be an All Star and have a (I love this) “marginally” longer career.
It all depends on what he wants more and if he buys in to his decision completely.


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Click to expand...
The height factor has become less and less of an issue with spread offenses becoming the norm in the NFL. Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Baker Mayfield have proven that shorter QBs can have success. Even with most expecting him to measure in around 5'9" - 5'10", most scouts are projecting him in the top 10. I expect a team desperate at QB will take a chance on him in the first round.


I will take note that you went (I love this) "on record" with your take... Regardless, you are proving the point that you don't have to be a top 10 QB to get paid like one - so he could still have a long, well-paid career even if he has moderate success in first few years.


Only 66% of first round MLB picks even make it out of the minors, let alone earn a significant second contract... so yeah, "marginal" if he ends up as a first round selection at QB.

SOURCE: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...aft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues#slide1


I just don't buy the argument that he is giving up any opportunity for long-term financial and professional success by pursuing football... He has an opportunity to earn more guaranteed money from the draft, more prominence in the NFL, and at least similar odds at long-term success based on draft pick success in both leagues.
 
bamaga

bamaga

Hall of Fame
Apr 29, 2002
14,917
10,436
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JAWJA
From Ian Rappaport today via twitter-
Kyler Murray will now get feedback from NFL scouts regarding his draft position and many scouts estimate he’ll be a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He also has millions from baseball waiting for him. Big decision still looms.
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The first pick in the second round of 2018 draft signed a $7.5 million/ four year deal . So , if selected in second round, don’t expect more than 9.5 mil over 4 years max. Couple that with the physical toll, and I think the choice is easy! But maybe he will get selected in the first round by a team wanting to catch lightning in a bottle!
 
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bamacon

bamacon

Hall of Fame
Apr 11, 2008
17,186
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College Football's Mecca, Tuscaloosa
I've included the pay scale table with signing bonus so people can see the financial side of the thinking. Like I've said I believe if he could only play ONE and he'd be given a chance KM would pick football. I think it's his passion and the NFL has changed SOOOOOOO much that his height will not exclude him. If he is taken ANYWHERE in the 1st round he's guaranteed 15 million dollars more or less (see Lamar Jackson at pick 32). I think he'll be taken 20 or before. At the 20th pick he's at 20 million dollars.

FWIW I don't think money is his motivation but you'd have to be dense not to use the leverage that God's blessings of talent had been given to you in every way possible.

One thing is for sure, it will be the most anticipated storyline in this year's draft.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonb...d-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#391c825f4581
 
J

JDCrimson

Hall of Fame
Feb 12, 2006
6,545
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Here is the way I see it as a baseball or football GM, there is always a draft next year with a new crop of players. KM is not a roster changing player in either sport. I personally thinking he is way overestimating his value. If I am the A's I tell him this is highest and final over from us if you dont want it good luck in the NFL.

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X

XXIII

Scout Team
Feb 3, 2011
109
0
0
Atlanta, GA
JDCrimson said:
Here is the way I see it as a baseball or football GM, there is always a draft next year with a new crop of players. KM is not a roster changing player in either sport. I personally thinking he is way overestimating his value. If I am the A's I tell him this is highest and final over from us if you dont want it good luck in the NFL.

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The reality is that the MLB is looking at him as arguably the highest profile athlete since Bryce Harper to enter a league severely lacking in national stars, and NFL GMs may see him as a potential franchise-changing QB.

The A’s / MLB are and should do whatever they can to try to keep him from going to the NFL. I don’t see a scenario, however, that doesn’t end with him at least entering the draft.
 
P

pigsinspace

1st Team
Jan 26, 2011
609
27
47
One thing about college players going into pro baseball is that the better ones often start in Double or Triple A, and can make it to the majors in a year or two. A few even start off in the majors. Four years of college ball can help a player develop like in the minors, but with a much higher standard of living. KM might have to spend a little time in the low minors just to get adjusted to full time baseball after being focused on football, but I would expect him to be in Midland or Nashville by the end of the season if he plays well. If all goes well for him, he could make the show by September 2020.
 
bamaga

bamaga

Hall of Fame
Apr 29, 2002
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JAWJA
bamacon said:
I've included the pay scale table with signing bonus so people can see the financial side of the thinking. Like I've said I believe if he could only play ONE and he'd be given a chance KM would pick football. I think it's his passion and the NFL has changed SOOOOOOO much that his height will not exclude him. If he is taken ANYWHERE in the 1st round he's guaranteed 15 million dollars more or less (see Lamar Jackson at pick 32).

FWIW I don't think money is his motivation but you'd have to be dense not to use the leverage that God's blessings of talent had been given to you in every way possible.

One thing is for sure, it will be the most anticipated storyline in this year's draft.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonb...d-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#391c825f4581
Click to expand...
Ahh, but you have that wrong. Lamar Jackson made 9.5 mil. The signing bonus is included in total contract, not in addition to. The 20th pick made $12 mil.

Ian Rappaport is reporting that scouts he has spoken with are giving him a 2nd or third round grade. I think he prolly goes mid 1st myself. Someone is looking for excitement, but apparently many think he is Menziel 2.0 , that’s the reason for the low draft grade.
 
bamacon

bamacon

Hall of Fame
Apr 11, 2008
17,186
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bamaga said:
Ahh, but you have that wrong. Lamar Jackson made 9.5 mil. The signing bonus is included in total contract, not in addition to. The 20th pick made $12 mil.

Ian Rappaport is reporting that scouts he has spoken with are giving him a 2nd or third round grade. I think he prolly goes mid 1st myself. Someone is looking for excitement, but apparently many think he is Menziel 2.0 , that’s the reason for the low draft grade.
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Sucked at math anyway:) but Lamar’s is still more than double the baseball contract is the bigger point. He’ll go higher than LJ too.


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AlistarWills

AlistarWills

Hall of Fame
Jul 26, 2006
5,636
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I’m sorry but Murray May be Mr Excitement but I just don’t see him translating to the NFL at all. You are asking a team to change their offensive philosophy to fit a 5-8 or 5-9 (at best) QB. He may be fast, but on a field of NFL vets, that speed differential becomes minimal. Also I just don’t see him as being able to really throw it in a small window on a consistent basis. His receivers seemed to me to either get behind the D/outrun the D/outbattle for the ball. None of these things is going to happen at the next level. I realize Baker Mayfield seems to be making it at Cleveland but for me the jury is still out. I’ll hold judgement till year 2 to see how teams adjust.
 
R

RollTide_HTTR

Hall of Fame
Feb 22, 2017
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I actually think Murray has some of the tools that would help him succeed in the NFL. That said, I'd be terrified of him getting injured if I were an NFL team. He just doesn't look like he could hold up in the NFL.
 
Con

Con

Hall of Fame
Dec 19, 2006
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RollTide_HTTR said:
I actually think Murray has some of the tools that would help him succeed in the NFL. That said, I'd be terrified of him getting injured if I were an NFL team. He just doesn't look like he could hold up in the NFL.
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Cam Newton is a big guy and he gets beaten up. Murray will not survive.
 
RTR91

RTR91

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Nov 23, 2007
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XXIII said:
The height factor has become less and less of an issue with spread offenses becoming the norm in the NFL. Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Baker Mayfield have proven that shorter QBs can have success. Even with most expecting him to measure in around 5'9" - 5'10", most scouts are projecting him in the top 10. I expect a team desperate at QB will take a chance on him in the first round.
Click to expand...

Exactly how tall is Kyler Murray anyway?



Drew Brees listed at 6-0

Baker Mayfield listed at 6-1

Russell Wilson listed at 5-11

With the OU assist SID saying he measured at 5'9 7/8 without socks, he would be an inch+ shorter than all three. That's pretty significant.
 
CajunCrimson

CajunCrimson

Moderator (FB,BB) and Vinyl Enthusiast
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