Russia Invades Ukraine IX

[TIDE-HSV]

My posts above are the translation.

I saw them. It makes all kinds of sense. It's definitely attrition war now. Russia is trying to use 40-year old artillery and few of the shells work. Ukraine's worse off right now, but there's a lot of NATO 155 mm artillery ammo in the world than the Russian stuff, if we and the allies can just get it to Ukraine fast enough - and train them up on the more sophisticated kit. It's a big task...

 

[JDCrimson]

It's a win for the taking for UKR if they just have the weapons. Russia doesn't have the resources to hold out.

But they need the weapons and need guerrilla warfare to break out in the occupied regions.

 

[TexasBama]

Ukraine Fears Defeat in East Without Surge in Military Aid

Russia is advancing in the Donbas region as the U.S. and its allies prepare to discuss new heavy-weapons supplies for Kyiv.

www.wsj.com

 

[Bamaro]

Ukraine Fears Defeat in East Without Surge in Military Aid

Russia is advancing in the Donbas region as the U.S. and its allies prepare to discuss new heavy-weapons supplies for Kyiv.

www.wsj.com

I'm afraid eastern Ukraine will become the new East Germany.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I'm afraid eastern Ukraine will become the new East Germany.

I fear you're right and it has most of the resources and a lot of the best farmland...

 

[Tidewater]

I fear you're right and it has most of the resources and a lot of the best farmland...

Most of Ukraine's good farmland is outside the Donbas, but a substantial hunk of Ukraine's industrial capacity was in the Donbas before 2014. Eight years of war have wrecked most of that, and what wasn't wrecked 2014-2022 has been wrecked now. Getting it up and running again will be an expensive proposition.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Most of Ukraine's good farmland is outside the Donbas, but a substantial hunk of Ukraine's industrial capacity was in the Donbas before 2014. Eight years of war have wrecked most of that, and what wasn't wrecked 2014-2022 has been wrecked now. Getting it up and running again will be an expensive proposition.

I was mistaken. I thought there was more in the way of resources there. Here is an interesting read on the Donbas...

DW.com

 

[Tidewater]

I was mistaken. I thought there was more in the way of resources there. Here is an interesting read on the Donbas...

DW.com

Deutsche Welle is always good.
That article is more than a bit dated now, but it is surprising how much Kyiv subsidized the Donbas before 2014. It did not buy Kyiv much good will when the GRU guys showed up in March 2014 and started whipping up the "rent-a-mobs."

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Deutsche Welle is always good.
That article is more than a bit dated now, but it is surprising how much Kyiv subsidized the Donbas before 2014. It did not buy Kyiv much good will when the GRU guys showed up in March 2014 and started whipping up the "rent-a-mobs."

I noticed the date on it, but the underlying point was still pertinent, I thought. The loss of Donbas is not the disaster for the rest of the country I thought. In fact, I think the South is really more important...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Articles like this amaze me, about Russia marching over the rest of Europe. I always think "with what, trained monkeys?" When you're down to Syrians to fight in Europe, you're at the bottom of the barrel. AND - he's bringing 50-year old tanks out of mothballs to fight in Ukraine. I think people are enjoying being scared of the big, bad RFA...

Beast

 

[Tidewater]

Articles like this amaze me, about Russia marching over the rest of Europe. I always think "with what, trained monkeys?" When you're down to Syrians to fight in Europe, you're at the bottom of the barrel. AND - he's bringing 50-year old tanks out of mothballs to fight in Ukraine. I think people are enjoying being scared of the big, bad RFA...

Beast

There are a lot of bureaucratic urges the lead to maintaining the idea that the Russians are ten feet tall. (Raytheon comes readily to mind).
Not sure why this guy is falling for that. OSCE's mission is sponsoring democracy & human rights and keeping the peace (where possible). Where does over-estimating Russians' military capabilities support those tasks?

 

[crimsonaudio]

If everyone doesn't join in sanctions, they can backfire...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536724077322313728

Article:

Russia’s Oil Revenue Soars Despite Sanctions, Study Finds (Published 2022)

Rising oil prices more than offset a decline in export volumes during the first 100 days of the assault on Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

 

[BamaFlum]

I’m afraid this is going to end up a no man’s land between to the two fronts as they lob artillery at each other. I feel for the Ukrainians and Putin can push up daisies for all I care.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

There are a lot of bureaucratic urges the lead to maintaining the idea that the Russians are ten feet tall. (Raytheon comes readily to mind).
Not sure why this guy is falling for that. OSCE's mission is sponsoring democracy & human rights and keeping the peace (where possible). Where does over-estimating Russians' military capabilities support those tasks?

As I said, IDK either. This guy should be better informed and it makes one wonder exactly how closely he follows current events. Russia has continued to advance in Donbas for one reason only - more artillery power and there are signs they are starting to run short on shells...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Here's Tom Cooper's latest installment. Towards the end, he references the RFA's manpower problems...

Tom Cooper

 

[Tidewater]

If everyone doesn't join in sanctions, they can backfire...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536724077322313728

Article:

Russia’s Oil Revenue Soars Despite Sanctions, Study Finds (Published 2022)

Rising oil prices more than offset a decline in export volumes during the first 100 days of the assault on Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

Yep. A pretty fungible commodity.

 

[Tidewater]

As I said, IDK either. This guy should be better informed and it makes one wonder exactly how closely he follows current events. Russia has continued to advance in Donbas for one reason only - more artillery power and there are signs they are starting to run short on shells...

I have colleagues who work at OSCE and they follow current events extremely closely. Not sure why the US ambassador would not be among those paying close attention. Weird.
Mark Galeotti was pondering Russia's ability to declare this a war and call up reserves, but (a) Russian reservists do not drill like American Guardsmen and Reservists do so training them up will take lots of time and (b) the equipment has been in storage since the 1970s, which means it was in storage in the 1990s, when everybody was cashing in on their positions in public service to sell stuff for personal profit, so reserve uniforms are probably in tatters, equipment has dry-rotted or is unserviceable, etc. If it was serviceable, it would have been sold long ago and the proceeds going into the commander's pocket.
I, however, am not one of those worried about Russia going beyond the borders of Ukraine, not for a long time. It is going to take a long time to rebuild the Russian army, but equipment-wise and psychologically.

 

[UAH]

There are a lot of bureaucratic urges the lead to maintaining the idea that the Russians are ten feet tall. (Raytheon comes readily to mind).
Not sure why this guy is falling for that. OSCE's mission is sponsoring democracy & human rights and keeping the peace (where possible). Where does over-estimating Russians' military capabilities support those tasks?

When I worked for Raytheon it was an ultra conservative Lexington, Ma. based company with leadership whose heritage dated back to John Adams. Then the consolidation of the defense industry began with Lockheed Martin. Raytheon chose to join the fray by acquiring Hughes Aerospace and E systems taking on $8 Billion or so in debt which frightened the thrifty New Englanders to no end. Today they are all gone and last week the company announced that they are moving their headquarters to the Beltline in DC. It is certainly not the company it was and today it is all about being on the inside politically.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I have colleagues who work at OSCE and they follow current events extremely closely. Not sure why the US ambassador would not be among those paying close attention. Weird.
Mark Galeotti was pondering Russia's ability to declare this a war and call up reserves, but (a) Russian reservists do not drill like American Guardsmen and Reservists do and (b) the equipment has been in storage since the 1970s, which means it was in storage in the 1990s, when everybody was cashing in on their positions in public service to sell stuff for personal profit, so reserve uniforms are probably in tatters, equipment has dry-rotted or is unserviceable, etc. If it was serviceable, it would have been sold long ago and the proceeds going into the commander's pocket.
I, however, am not one of those worried about Russia going beyond the borders of Ukraine, not for a long time. It is going to take a long time to rebuild the Russian army, but equipment-wise and psychologically.

I don't remember where I read it, but in the last couple of days, I read that Russia had some ancient guns, 122s, I think, and that only one out of forty shells would fire. Also that they had taken 152s out of the hands of some separatists and reallocated them to RFA units. Who would know this and how, IDK. They can still lay down some impressive barrages in certain areas, but I get the feeling they're having to pick their spots more...

 

[Tidewater]

I don't remember where I read it, but in the last couple of days, I read that Russia had some ancient guns, 122s, I think, and that only one out of forty shells would fire. Also that they had taken 152s out of the hands of some separatists and reallocated them to RFA units. Who would know this and how, IDK. They can still lay down some impressive barrages in certain areas, but I get the feeling they're having to pick their spots more...

The D-30 is a venerable old Soviet cannon. Less range than the 152mm cannon, and packs a smaller punch, but the Soviets made a bunch of them. Not sure about the ammo.
When I was in the Army, we went to Guernsey, Wyo. (National Guard training installation) and fired some 81mm illum rounds. That charge cards (tells you how much powder to use at which elevation to hit a target at a various ranges) were dated 1945. The rounds all fired but the illumination was yellow, not white.