Russia Invades Ukraine IX
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His summary on other hour-long videos is that we have crunchy borders and a gooey interior.
Atlantic Ocean on the East, Pacific Ocean on the West, and at least relatively friendly neighbors on the north and south….both of whom would go down the drain about a nanosecond after we do, if it comes to that. IOW, it’s in Canada’s and Mexico’s existential interest that the USA stays healthy.
Rephrased, if we’re threatened, Canada and Mexico will help us with everything they have….not because they love us, but because if we die, they do too.
Less metaphorically, we have boundaries, especially on the east and west, that would be really tough for a foe to physically penetrate.
Even if they did, we have the combination of mass of area, two conveniently placed mountain ranges (Rockies on the west and Appalachians on the east), and a massively armed population, that would make it far more difficult to hold territory than to take it in the first place….and taking it would be no mean feat.
All that is at least in part because it’s really easy for us to move stuff around internally — rivers, rail, an interstate highway network (which a few of the OFC might remember was initially funded with defense dollars).
In addition to which, there’s a whole bunch of secondary roads that, regardless of how much we complain about potholes, are in incredibly good condition compared to anywhere else in the world, and would be impossible to disable en masse.
Keep in mind that even that dire scenario doesn’t count God’s own number of landing strips in major airports, lesser ones, and hundreds of others like the Shelby County Airport outside of Birmingham. We can put down air cover anywhere in the country, and do it within minutes.
I’m worried about a lot of things, but I’m not worried about America’s physical security against an enemy invading from the outside.
An inside job is another story…….
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I found his discussion about Mexico interesting (and a bit surprising) - they could well become a real world power in the future.
The US ambassador to Brazil said, "Brazil is a potential superpower. And always will be."
Their legal structure, tax structure, trade restrictions and tradition of corruption practically assures that they will never achieve first world economic status.
Demographically, Mexico is the antithesis of Russia.
Russia’s demographic distribution is diamond-shaped, meaning there are fewer and fewer young people to replace the older ones as they die off. In their case, a cohort of men in the age range of effective military combat is both limited and shrinking.
Mexico’s looks much more like an champagne coupe turned upside down — lots of young people as compared to older ones.
I’m not as sure as Zeihan is that they can become an economic power. Their economy is just so dominated by drugs. Their police, judiciary and government are notoriously corrupt, and enforceability of contracts is spotty at best (that’s the corrupt judiciary playing in).
The older I get, the more I think that last thing — reliable enforceability of contracts — is the single most important non-military aspect to national security.
That and the reliability of government, from the lowest to the highest level, to deal with you honestly. More than just government - professionals, tradesmen, merchants, etc. I'll give you an example. My daughter lives in France and she has a rare condition, requiring seeing several different specialists. It's been a rocky road, with a couple actually discharging her. They have a friend, native to the area, who is independently wealthy but has worked for them, mostly as a favor. (They only found out about his wealth when he offered to buy the place.) Now, France is a single provider country, supposedly, though the federal insurance does have tiers. They have the top tier, where there's no copay - everything is supposedly covered. Dan, the friend/employee let them know the customs. You are expected to offer a gratuity to the doctor for a favorable, early appointment. He told them that, if they had been French, the doctor would have asked for the bribe right on the front end. He said that, since Dominik is German and Rachel is American, the doctors knew they weren't familiar with having to bribe doctors. But he said it probably had something to do with the doctors releasing them - not making enough money off them. And France is supposedly a first world country...
Yep. If the government is corrupt then the country will decline, if it has ever managed to reach some success.
Those who want the US to move to a single provider healthcare system often cite the French system as the example of how it should be done.
I’m truly sorry for the trouble your daughter has had getting adequate treatment for her medical conditions. Your past accounts of her being essentially fired as a patient, in the midst of life-threatening illness, have been chilling examples that the promise is simply not the reality.
Doctors don’t make the huge salaries that they do in the US. But they make it up in bribes — which I’m guessing aren’t taxed — and the general French population just views it as part of the deal. Don’t make enough money on a given patient? No worries…just cut her off, never mind that she’s fighting potentially deadly conditions.
The flip side of a “free” medical system.
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France apparently either does not have the protections the US does or it does not enforce them. Either way, that does not invalidate the entire idea of insurance for all or even single payer.
I didn't want to get boring, but it permeates society there. No small businessman pays the huge taxes to support both the medical and the expansive social safety net. Instead a huge part of the economy is under the table. They found out they were the only ones paying the government. All the others' employees were "off the books." However, with the pandemic, it came back to bite a lot in the ass. The government's payments for restaurants, etc., having to close for the pandemic, were based on what you'd reported to the government. They did quite well, while other restaurants went under because they received little in the way of subsidy during the lockdown...
Oh, I'm all for insurance. I even came around on ObamaCare when it became apparent that the insurance companies and the healthcare providers adjusted and made it profitable for both sides.
The problem is that about the time the insurance companies and healthcare providers got their stuff together, Congress went in and removed the individual mandate, which was the main underpinning for the whole thing. So young people opted out in droves, leaving only the OFC and a way-too-high proportion of high-risk people actually buying the stuff, making it financially unstable.
Which gets around to my point from another direction -- you involve government in the delivery of just about anything, and you'll get inefficiency at best, and corruption at worst, putting the screws to the very people it purports to protect. No, the system we have isn't perfect -- not even close. But it beats the hell out of anybody else's.
Fully acknowledging that I played a big part in the thread drift, it's probably time to get back on the Ukrainian topic heading. If anyone wants to start a thread on healthcare, feel free.
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Frankly, if one side would stop obstructing and deliberately sabotaging things it would be of help.
I'll add that Medicare has been a resounding success despite its shortcomings. Medicare for all is not a bad idea, if we can keep bad actors from sabotaging it.
Ukraine: UK man's family 'devastated' by death sentence
The family of a British man condemned to death for fighting for Ukraine says it's devastated by the outcome of what it termed a “show trial” and called for him to be released.
apnews.com
Russia-Ukraine war: 'That grain needs to get out,' former NATO Supreme Allied Commander says
The world is "edging into serious global food security issues" as the Russia-Ukraine war drags on, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis told Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer.
I've come to the reluctant conclusion that the Ukrainians will lose. IDK know how much - I don't think they'll lose the entire country - but they'll lose. IDK if we could have gotten more weapons, and especially ammo, to them or we hedged our bets too long, but they don't have enough weapons nor ammo, particularly for artillery. The other side of the coin is learning curve. In too many cases, they just don't know yet how to use what they have. It's a sad situation...
Edit: I didn't read the Kasparov tweet before I posted, but I totally agree with him...
Edit: I didn't read the Kasparov tweet before I posted, but I totally agree with him...
Nicaragua authorizes entry of Russian troops, planes, ships
The government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has authorized Russian troops, planes and ships to deploy to Nicaragua for purposes of training, law enforcement or emergency response
abcnews.go.com
The good news is that the condemnation is only intended to increase pressure on Kyiv to exchange Medvedchuk. I do not actually expect Donetsk to carry out the execution unless they believe the Donetsk Peoples' Republic is on the edge of losing the war.Ukraine: UK man's family 'devastated' by death sentence
The family of a British man condemned to death for fighting for Ukraine says it's devastated by the outcome of what it termed a “show trial” and called for him to be released.
Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia all had Russian troops legally in their countries. How did that work out for them?Nicaragua authorizes entry of Russian troops, planes, ships
The government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has authorized Russian troops, planes and ships to deploy to Nicaragua for purposes of training, law enforcement or emergency response
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