I suppose they'd go after the Suawalki Gap, but then at that point, with Lithuania being a NATO member, I'd hope they'd find out what its like to go up against the Varsity.
Russia Invades Ukraine IX
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Our weapons are starting to make a real difference in Ukraine, with soldiers who trained on Russia's weapons. They've got to be thinking about coming up against those weapons in NATO hands, after what their army has shown. I read today that they're just trying to hold out for our '22 midterms. They believe that the Republicans will call off the dogs. I've begun to adopt what Tidewater's opinion that Russia's real problem is demographics. They'd like a professional army like ours, but they're forced to conscript off a skinny base...
The Suwalki Corrridor. It is our corridor that connects Poland and Lithuania. It is Russia's gap that separates Belarus and Kaliningrad.
I cannot claim credit for that phrasing. Lt Gen Ben Hodges (Ret.), former command of the US Army Europe, said that. He's right. It is our corridor. It is the Russians' gap.
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A skinny base on a crash diet.
As I said previously, in 2018, Russia lost 1 million people, through deaths and out-migration. One million people in one year. I bet 2022 will be similar, with a lot of out-migration, especially among the young and talented. They will move to Europe (or America) to get away from the regime.
Google "Peter Zeihan Russian Demographics." The first return on the search will be a YouTube video in which Zeihan goes into chilling (if you're Russian) detail on the Russians' demographic situation and how they got themselves in such a bad spot. In short, they lack both numbers and skill sets due to a systemic lack of education and several policies that drive out educated people, or restrict the birth rate, or both.
His diamond-shaped demographic chart is highly illustrative, and as Zeihan points out, takes the Russians at their word on the numbers....and they lie on all their numbers. Miraculously, they "found" 8 million children in the last census that weren't there in the one before. Point being, they're really in a much bigger world of demographic hurt than the already-damning chart shows.
The video is only about 12 minutes, and the whole thing is fascinating. Zeihan also has other videos (both on Russia and on a lot of other countries) that are equally instructive.
I'd post the link. But the very last word in the video is decidedly un-TideFans. So the best I can do is to give you the Google search I used to dig it up.
That is really interesting. Sorry he ended with the potty mouth, but really interesting. I'd bet that was at the US Army War College in Carlisle, Penn., based on the flags.
Interesting takes on Russia and China! Sort of up to the west to dominate or choose to throw it all away by reelecting an idiot like Trump!
Ukraine’s partisans are hitting Russian soldiers behind their own lines
Hope there is a lot of this.
A conventional military counteroffensive is not likely to regain the territory lost since 2014, but making the occupied land untenable might.
Hope there is a lot of this.
A conventional military counteroffensive is not likely to regain the territory lost since 2014, but making the occupied land untenable might.
The Afghanis nod in agreement. That’s how they chased the Russians out, at a time when the Russian military was a lot stronger than it is now. Took them a while, but they eventually did it.
Also, as Peter Zeihan points out, it’s one thing to take territory. It’s entirely another to hold it, especially when the population really doesn’t want you there.
Zeihan estimates that, given the level of Ukrainian resistance, it could take 2 million troops to hold Ukraine, and the Russians simply don’t have that. I don’t know what he bases the 2 million estimate on, but I sincerely hope he’s right.
Ukrainian sources.
"The hunting season is open. Leaflets appeared in the occupied territories warning the invaders about the fate of Hitler's soldiers."
Сезон охоты открыт. На захваченных территориях появились листовки с предупреждениям оккупантам о судьбе солдат Гитлера
“Russian soldier, if you don’t want to be a Nazi of the 21st century, then leave our land! Otherwise, the fate of Hitler’s soldiers and a Nuremberg tribunal await you! We honor the memory of our grandfather-partisans and continue their tradition of destroying enemy forces on the occupied [territory]."
"The hunting season is open. Leaflets appeared in the occupied territories warning the invaders about the fate of Hitler's soldiers."
Сезон охоты открыт. На захваченных территориях появились листовки с предупреждениям оккупантам о судьбе солдат Гитлера
“Russian soldier, if you don’t want to be a Nazi of the 21st century, then leave our land! Otherwise, the fate of Hitler’s soldiers and a Nuremberg tribunal await you! We honor the memory of our grandfather-partisans and continue their tradition of destroying enemy forces on the occupied [territory]."
It is probably based on Wehrmacht experience in western Russia in the Second World War.
In a convention assault, the attacker has to have 3-1 ratio over the defender.
In a counterinsurgency, the standard ratio is ten counterinsurgents per insurgent.
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Speaking of the Wehrmacht in western Russia. I have seen some video of German positions being explored by WW II enthusiast. The obvious things that stick out is the hopelessness of defending positions across hundreds and hundreds of mile fronts in the open plains against massed tanks and infantry. One has to have empathy with how hopeless and abandoned a 17-19 year old soldier would feel. So many never saw tomorrow.
Probably the best summary I have seen to date of partisan activity behind Russian lines.
methodological note: Motyl is using Ukrainian sources, so caveat lector.
Putin’s Nightmare: A Ukrainian Guerrilla Movement Has Emerged
Getting accurate data from the areas behind Russian lines is, and will remain, exceedingly difficult. Any western journalist rooting around will be arrested and charged with spying. Russian journalists will not write about it out of fear of going to prison. The straight poop will be hard to come by.
methodological note: Motyl is using Ukrainian sources, so caveat lector.
Putin’s Nightmare: A Ukrainian Guerrilla Movement Has Emerged
Getting accurate data from the areas behind Russian lines is, and will remain, exceedingly difficult. Any western journalist rooting around will be arrested and charged with spying. Russian journalists will not write about it out of fear of going to prison. The straight poop will be hard to come by.
If you counted Ukrainian regular military plus reserve, they were down about 2 to 1 from the start.
I’m wondering if the Russians are starting to rethink the effectiveness of their Battalion Tactical Group model
No. The Russian never did outnumber the Ukrainians 3-1, which is why I said it would be suicidal to try.
I am just speaking in generalities. Traditionally, the attacker has to outnumber the defender 3-1 to be confident of victory.
The American way is to rely on “combat multipliers” (air power, IT, etc.) to make up the difference.
Heck, we attacked the Iraqis outnumbered 1-13 and beat them like a rented mule.
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