Russia invades Ukraine - VI

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crimsonaudio

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I still think its time to execute the plans which we must have to deploy troops to be prepared to defend NATO's eastern border. The only way to keep the Russians out is to already be there.
Agree 100%.

As I posted yesterday, I've seen people calling for troops to enter western Ukraine, where the russians aren't, to act as a barrier. Anything to pressure putin and let him know we're not going to sit idly by is good, imo.
 

Its On A Slab

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Agree 100%.

As I posted yesterday, I've seen people calling for troops to enter western Ukraine, where the russians aren't, to act as a barrier. Anything to pressure putin and let him know we're not going to sit idly by is good, imo.
Probably the safer course is to bolster the defenses of the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Hungary. In essence, the Eastern border of NATO. Draw the line there. Continue the proxy war in Ukraine. Hopefully, the Russians run out of ammo and men, and either negotiate a truce/peace.

As I said in an earlier post, if that border is breached, all bets are off.
 

4Q Basket Case

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I think that's fair, but I also think it a fallacy to suggest anyone here (with a few possible exceptions) understands the nuances involved on more than an extremely coarse level.


I agree - I'm not calling for nuking Moscow.

But the West (read: not the US alone, but NATO (and quite possibly every country outside of russia)) needs to be ready to be strong here. History shows us this rather plainly.
Wholeheartedly agree on both fronts. In the general public discourse (not in any way limited to TF), we see advocacy of emotionally satisfying but highly dangerous, actions — enforce a no-fly zone, supply planes, or even more extreme moves.

But the opposite extreme — doing nothing — is at least as dangerous in the long term, for the historical reasons you cite.

The difference is that when the Nazis took over Austria and other precursors to the blitz invasions of Poland and France, nobody anywhere had the capability of literally destroying the world in a matter of hours. IOW, the downside of being wrong today is just infinitely more severe.

The question then becomes, “If you don’t like the extreme reaction, and you equally don't like doing nothing, what do you think we should do?” My suggestion was an attempt to answer that, as opposed to simply pointing out the weaknesses of other suggestions.

We are in 100% agreement that the west has to remain united and strong against Russia. If Putin perceives a crack in the resolve, he will exploit it for all it’s worth.

I’m a bit less worried about a conventional invasion of the Baltics than I once was. The Russian Army is failing miserably in Ukraine despite pouring additional resources into the campaign. It can’t in any way support a separate military operation of the scale required to take back Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — especially since that would result in a full-scale conventional NATO response.

I like PaulD’s idea of placing a bunch of NATO forces in Poland— in what would be only a large-scale training exercise — nod to Mr. Putin’s characterization of the buildup on the Ukrainian border prior to the invasion.

I would pay a lot of money to hear Condolezza Rice’s unvarnished thoughts on the question of how best to respond.
 
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Tidewater

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Agree 100%.

As I posted yesterday, I've seen people calling for troops to enter western Ukraine, where the russians aren't, to act as a barrier. Anything to pressure putin and let him know we're not going to sit idly by is good, imo.
And I'll tell you exactly the way the Russians would play that. They would draw the analogy between the conduct of the West in coming in at the end of the conflict and grab a portion of the victim just like the Soviets did to Poland in 1939.
 
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Tidewater

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Probably the safer course is to bolster the defenses of the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Hungary. In essence, the Eastern border of NATO. Draw the line there. Continue the proxy war in Ukraine. Hopefully, the Russians run out of ammo and men, and either negotiate a truce/peace.

As I said in an earlier post, if that border is breached, all bets are off.
I agree. There's no line we can draw inside Ukraine that the Russians would be bound to respect.
In the meantime however, we need to make sure the Russians know that anything beyond Ukraine would be completely unacceptable and would meet with massive (conventional) retaliation.
 

Its On A Slab

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I agree. There's no line we can draw inside Ukraine that the Russians would be bound to respect.
In the meantime however, we need to make sure the Russians know that anything beyond Ukraine would be completely unacceptable and would meet with massive (conventional) retaliation.
I can see Putin try to send planes into NATO airspace. I have seen reports of drones straying from Ukraine.

I am wondering what the NATO response would be? This would be a different kind of interdiction than your usual Tu-95 escort. This would be an armed fighter jet straying from a war zone. Do we shoot it down? Do we force it to land?
 
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Tidewater

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I can see Putin try to send planes into NATO airspace. I have seen reports of drones straying from Ukraine.

I am wondering what the NATO response would be? This would be a different kind of interdiction than your usual Tu-95 escort. This would be an armed fighter jet straying from a war zone. Do we shoot it down? Do we force it to land?
When the Russian airplanes strayed into Turkish airspace from Syria, the Turks shot them down.
The incursions ceased.
 

UAH

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I agree. There's no line we can draw inside Ukraine that the Russians would be bound to respect.
In the meantime however, we need to make sure the Russians know that anything beyond Ukraine would be completely unacceptable and would meet with massive (conventional) retaliation.
Should we not expect to see at some point Russian planes violate the airspace over the Baltic states or Poland or perhaps worse an errant missile land and explode in Poland? It is difficult to show restraint when the other guy acts with no restraint!
 
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crimsonaudio

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Should we not expect to see at some point Russian planes violate the airspace over the Baltic states or Poland or perhaps worse an errant missile land and explode in Poland? It is difficult to show restraint when the other guy acts with no restraint!
What's worse is their aiming systems appear to be stuck at WWII levels. They might hit Poland without even trying.
 
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Tidewater

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Should we not expect to see at some point Russian planes violate the airspace over the Baltic states or Poland or perhaps worse an errant missile land and explode in Poland? It is difficult to show restraint when the other guy acts with no restraint!
Maybe, but when a Russian airplane strays into Polish (or Estonian) airspace it would be best to shoot it down right then.
 
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