I think that's fair, but I also think it a fallacy to suggest anyone here (with a few possible exceptions) understands the nuances involved on more than an extremely coarse level.
I agree - I'm not calling for nuking Moscow.
But the West (read: not the US alone, but NATO (and quite possibly every country outside of russia)) needs to be ready to be strong here. History shows us this rather plainly.
Wholeheartedly agree on both fronts. In the general public discourse (not in any way limited to TF), we see advocacy of emotionally satisfying but highly dangerous, actions — enforce a no-fly zone, supply planes, or even more extreme moves.
But the opposite extreme — doing nothing — is at least as dangerous in the long term, for the historical reasons you cite.
The difference is that when the Nazis took over Austria and other precursors to the blitz invasions of Poland and France, nobody anywhere had the capability of literally destroying the world in a matter of hours. IOW, the downside of being wrong today is just infinitely more severe.
The question then becomes, “If you don’t like the extreme reaction, and you equally don't like doing nothing, what
do you think we should do?” My suggestion was an attempt to answer that, as opposed to simply pointing out the weaknesses of other suggestions.
We are in 100% agreement that the west has to remain united and strong against Russia. If Putin perceives a crack in the resolve, he will exploit it for all it’s worth.
I’m a bit less worried about a conventional invasion of the Baltics than I once was. The Russian Army is failing miserably in Ukraine despite pouring additional resources into the campaign. It can’t in any way support a separate military operation of the scale required to take back Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — especially since that would result in a full-scale conventional NATO response.
I like PaulD’s idea of placing a bunch of NATO forces in Poland—
in what would be only a large-scale training exercise — nod to Mr. Putin’s characterization of the buildup on the Ukrainian border prior to the invasion.
I would pay a lot of money to hear Condolezza Rice’s unvarnished thoughts on the question of how best to respond.