Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

[Tidewater]

Their biggest issue is not Tallinn or Riga, where no rioting about russian language will ever happen, but border cities like Narva: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narva

Ethnicity (2011)[3]
• Russians	87.7%
• Estonians	5.2%
• other	7.1%

Narva has a predominantly russian population and provides an easy excuse for Russians to attack, claiming “protecting russian speakers”. That would allow the establishment of an Estonian “DNR” that would allow to test NATO Article 5 and then slow escalation to take over the rest of the country

The difference is that ethnic Russians living in Narva go across the border all the time and see with their own eyes what life is like there. They love their EU passports.
The ethnic Russians living in Tallinn and Riga most have never been to Russia, they just know it is "cool" to be Russian. Russian television told them so. "All Russians wear silk suits and drive sports cars and have hot girlfriends. I saw it on TV. Russians are the 'bad boys' that scare everybody."

An Estonian colleague explained this to me.
Russians in Riga are much the same.

 

[75thru79]

The ethnic Russians living in Tallinn and Riga most have never been to Russia, they just know it is "cool" to be Russian. Russian television told them so. "All Russians wear silk suits and drive sports cars and have hot girlfriends. I saw it on TV. Russians are the 'bad boys' that scare everybody."

Nice to know we aren't the only country where vast segments of the population have no clue about how the rest of the world works.

 

[Huckleberry]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml

Poland says it has shot down drones that entered its airspace during Russian attack on Ukraine

Poland’s military said early Wednesday that it had shot down drones that violated its airspace during a Russian attack on neighboring Ukraine, in what is potentially a major provocation for Europe.

“Weapons have been deployed, and services are actively working to locate the downed objects,” said a statement from Poland’s Operational Command posted on X.

The statement said a military operation was ongoing and urged residents to stay in their homes. Additional information about the “drone-type objects” was not provided.

 

[Bamaro]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml

Poland says it has shot down drones that entered its airspace during Russian attack on Ukraine

Poland’s military said early Wednesday that it had shot down drones that violated its airspace during a Russian attack on neighboring Ukraine, in what is potentially a major provocation for Europe.

“Weapons have been deployed, and services are actively working to locate the downed objects,” said a statement from Poland’s Operational Command posted on X.

The statement said a military operation was ongoing and urged residents to stay in their homes. Additional information about the “drone-type objects” was not provided.

Other than over shooting it's target, how would this happen?

 

[Tidewater]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml

Poland says it has shot down drones that entered its airspace during Russian attack on Ukraine

Poland’s military said early Wednesday that it had shot down drones that violated its airspace during a Russian attack on neighboring Ukraine, in what is potentially a major provocation for Europe.

“Weapons have been deployed, and services are actively working to locate the downed objects,” said a statement from Poland’s Operational Command posted on X.

The statement said a military operation was ongoing and urged residents to stay in their homes. Additional information about the “drone-type objects” was not provided.

The pesky thing about the little ones is they are deuce difficult to detect. The trade-off is they only have so much range.
To get long range, you need to have a bigger drone and that means more detectable.
Wyryki, Poland is close to the tristate area (Belarus-Poland-Ukraine) and the airspace violations continued all night, so it seems the Russians were looking to fly around Ukraine's air defense net by using Poland's airspace.
In other words, it was intentional.
One step closer to a wider war.

 

[some_al_fan]

The pesky thing about the little ones is they are deuce difficult to detect. The trade-off is they only have so much range.
To get long range, you need to have a bigger drone and that means more detectable.
Wyryki, Poland is close to the tristate area (Belarus-Poland-Ukraine) and the airspace violations continued all night, so it seems the Russians were looking to fly around Ukraine's air defense net by using Poland's airspace.
In other words, it was intentional.
One step closer to a wider war.

There are also images of fragments further south from Wyryki, in Cześniki:

Poland dismisses Russia’s claim drone incursion was unintentional as Ukraine calls for joint European air defence system – as it happened

Poland’s deputy PM said Russian drones ‘did not veer off course’ but deliberately targeted Poland; Zelenskyy says Europe needs effective air shield

www.theguardian.com

If you’d draw a line from Wyryki to Cześniki and then continue the same line further South, you could see that Rzeszów is not far away from that line.

We could guess that Russia was trying to use Polish airspace to attack Ukraine from the West. Still, there is an alternative opinion that the real target could’ve been Rzeszów airport, the central hub of Western military aid to Ukraine.
No idea what Russia was thinking when trying to attack that target, but there are clear military benefits for Russia if that attack had been successful

P.S. There were 23 drones. It was definitely an intentional act.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

A question for you, Tidewater:

Do you think Russia has either the manpower or materiel to prosecute a wider war?

It strikes me that they're losing so many men, and so much kit in Ukraine that they have their hands full there.

Has the advent of drones changed the landscape so much that manpower and kit no longer matter?

 

[Tidewater]

There are also images of fragments further south from Wyryki, in Cześniki:

Poland dismisses Russia’s claim drone incursion was unintentional as Ukraine calls for joint European air defence system – as it happened

Poland’s deputy PM said Russian drones ‘did not veer off course’ but deliberately targeted Poland; Zelenskyy says Europe needs effective air shield

www.theguardian.com

If you’d draw a line from Wyryki to Cześniki and then continue the same line further South, you could see that Rzeszów is not far away from that line.

We could guess that Russia was trying to use Polish airspace to attack Ukraine from the West. Still, there is an alternative opinion that the real target could’ve been Rzeszów airport, the central hub of Western military aid to Ukraine.
No idea what Russia was thinking when trying to attack that target, but there are clear military benefits for Russia if that attack had been successful

P.S. There were 23 drones. It was definitely an intentional act.

That is an extremely high risk, low payoff operation. Yes, if successful they may destroy some kit en route to Ukraine. Kill some Polish nationals (or citizens of other NATO nations) and Russia may convince Poland it was intentional and Poland may invoke Art. 5. Russia soon be facing German Leos with German crews and Abrams with American crews in Ukraine.

 

[some_al_fan]

That is an extremely high risk, low payoff operation. Yes, if successful they may destroy some kit en route to Ukraine. Kill some Polish nationals (or citizens of other NATO nations) and Russia may convince Poland it was intentional and Poland may invoke Art. 5. Russia soon be facing German Leos with German crews and Abrams with American crews in Ukraine.

For sure.
Russia is clearly testing NATO’s response—either by deliberately trying to strike Rzeszów or by intentionally using Polish airspace to attack Ukraine. Last night there was property damage in Poland; thankfully no deaths, but one drone did hit an apartment building.

 

[Tidewater]

There are also images of fragments further south from Wyryki, in Cześniki:

Poland dismisses Russia’s claim drone incursion was unintentional as Ukraine calls for joint European air defence system – as it happened

Poland’s deputy PM said Russian drones ‘did not veer off course’ but deliberately targeted Poland; Zelenskyy says Europe needs effective air shield

www.theguardian.com

If you’d draw a line from Wyryki to Cześniki and then continue the same line further South, you could see that Rzeszów is not far away from that line.

We could guess that Russia was trying to use Polish airspace to attack Ukraine from the West. Still, there is an alternative opinion that the real target could’ve been Rzeszów airport, the central hub of Western military aid to Ukraine.
No idea what Russia was thinking when trying to attack that target, but there are clear military benefits for Russia if that attack had been successful

P.S. There were 23 drones. It was definitely an intentional act.

One of the photos in the Guardian article showed what appeared to be a Shahed drone (Iranian orgini, manufactured in Russia under license).

Here is Zelenskyy standing next to one for scale.

 

[Tidewater]

A question for you, Tidewater:

Do you think Russia has either the manpower or materiel to prosecute a wider war?

It strikes me that they're losing so many men, and so much kit in Ukraine that they have their hands full there.

Has the advent of drones changed the landscape so much that manpower and kit no longer matter?

I doubt Putin has the manpower reserves to deal with a wider war. He would have to declare it a war and mobilize the nation. In 2022, he called this a 'special military operation" to avoid calling it a war. There might be domestic political ramifications if he called it a war and mobilized.

And yes, drones have substantially changed warfare (like steam power changed naval warfare in the 1800s and the airplane and tank in/after the Great War), but people still live on the ground (mostly) and you need to put a guy with a gun on the ground to control it.
The one good thing about having a huge military budget is that entrepreneurs are frantically trying to field a system to protect troops from drones, so they can grab some of that mountain of money.

 

[some_al_fan]

One of the photos in the Guardian article showed what appeared to be a Shahed drone (Iranian orgini, manufactured in Russia under license).
View attachment 52760
Here is Zelenskyy standing next to one for scale.

Shahed drones are 3.35meters (length) by 2.5meters (wing span).
Zelensky is not that tall . I think the image could’ve been altered.

Here are better images from wikipedia:

 

[crimsonaudio]

The one good thing about having a huge military budget is that entrepreneurs are frantically trying to field a system to protect troops from drones, so they can grab some of that mountain of money.

Such as:

And it's not just a demo:

Epirus Delivers IFPC-HPM Counter-Swarm System to U.S. Army, Developing Pathway to Field High-Power Microwave Capability

www.epirusinc.com

 

[some_al_fan]

Completely unrelated, but there is a company in Madison, AL that builds Shahed-like drones:

US firm builds Iran's Shahed-like drone with 100-pound payload power

Alabama-based drone manufacturer Griffon Aerospace has unveiled its latest unmanned aircraft system, the MQM-172 Arrowhead kamikaze drone.

interestingengineering.com

 

[crimsonaudio]

Poland invokes NATO's Article 4 over Russia's drones

Poland said Russia committed a major violation of its airspace. This live blog is now closed.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Tidewater]

Shahed drones are 3.35meters (length) by 2.5meters (wing span).
Zelensky is not that tall . I think the image could’ve been altered.

Here are better images from wikipedia:
View attachment 52761

View attachment 52762

Or it could be a different model of drone that superficially looks like a Shahed.

 

[some_al_fan]

Or it could be a different model of drone that superficially looks like a Shahed.

Could be. Here is “Gerbera" (Shahed look alike, but without the warhead):

 

[Tidewater]

Poland invokes NATO's Article 4 over Russia's drones

Poland said Russia committed a major violation of its airspace. This live blog is now closed.

www.newsweek.com

Consultation. It is not clear whether this was online with heads of state, or Defense Ministers or nations' ambassadors (every member state has an ambassador in Brussels to handle exactly this kind of matter).
Pretty normal after anything of interest to the security situation of the ALlianxce or any member state.
It is preliminary to invoking Art. 5 (Poland may proceed to invoking Art. 5, but is not required to; it really depends on what Poland wishes to do about the drone incursions.)
Announcing the invocation of Art. 4 may well be the message NATO wants to send to Putin, "Hey, knucklehead, we are watching and we are ticked off, so wtach your step."

 

[crimsonaudio]

Consultation. It is not clear whether this was online with heads of state, or Defense Ministers or nations' ambassadors (every member state has an ambassador in Brussels to handle exactly this kind of matter).
Pretty normal after anything of interest to the security situation of the ALlianxce or any member state.
It is preliminary to invoking Art. 5 (Poland may proceed to invoking Art. 5, but is not required to; it really depends on what Poland wishes to do about the drone incursions.)
Announcing the invocation of Art. 4 may well be the message NATO wants to send to Putin, "Hey, knucklehead, we are watching and we are ticked off, so wtach your step."

Apparently this is only the eighth time Article 4 has been invoked since 1949. Had no idea.

North Atlantic Treaty - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Tidewater]

There are also images of fragments further south from Wyryki, in Cześniki:

Poland dismisses Russia’s claim drone incursion was unintentional as Ukraine calls for joint European air defence system – as it happened

Poland’s deputy PM said Russian drones ‘did not veer off course’ but deliberately targeted Poland; Zelenskyy says Europe needs effective air shield

www.theguardian.com

If you’d draw a line from Wyryki to Cześniki and then continue the same line further South, you could see that Rzeszów is not far away from that line.

We could guess that Russia was trying to use Polish airspace to attack Ukraine from the West. Still, there is an alternative opinion that the real target could’ve been Rzeszów airport, the central hub of Western military aid to Ukraine.
No idea what Russia was thinking when trying to attack that target, but there are clear military benefits for Russia if that attack had been successful

P.S. There were 23 drones. It was definitely an intentional act.

Talk about a high risk operation there is (of course) a relevant World War II situation that illustrates the point.
In December 1944, Hitler was losing bad and knew it. He needed to change the game. The Red Army was too massive for a knock-out blow, so he looked west. The Brits and Americans taken together, were too strong, but if he could divide them. This idea was surround Monty's army group, force them to surrender or evacuate by sea, leaving all the heavy equipment, and force the Americans to withdraw and maybe sue for peace. Once free of the threat from the west, the Wehrmacht could turn east and defeat the Red Army.
All of this was fantasy. Just before kickoff, Field Marshal Walter Model gave it a 10% chance of succeeding.

Maybe Putin is trying something spectacularly risky like Wacht-am-Rhein. Call NATO's bluff and maybe even break up NATO as an alliance. But man, that is high stakes poker.