Russia invades Ukraine XV

[Tidewater]

This was interesting.
The New Year Brings Greater Censorship and Repression in Russia
"Recently, government officials began discussing options for tightening the circulation of SIM cards. In particular, some proposals called for Russian operators to activate SIM cards only after checking the subscribers’ passport data with the Ministry of Internal Affairs."

Control the media, control the mind.

 

[Tidewater]

The Russian satirical magazine Publicist strikes again:
The news that three FSB officers were detained for a bribe of 5 billion rubles is encouraging not only because the fight against corruption continues in the country. But also that, under the yoke of sanctions, and maybe even for patriotic reasons, corrupt officials began to take bribes in rubles, and not in the currencies of enemy countries.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The Russian satirical magazine Publicist strikes again:
The news that three FSB officers were detained for a bribe of 5 billion rubles is encouraging not only because the fight against corruption continues in the country. But also that, under the yoke of sanctions, and maybe even for patriotic reasons, corrupt officials began to take bribes in rubles, and not in the currencies of enemy countries.

I see we're restarting M777 production lines. Did you ever think we'd ever invest any more in towed arty?

 

[Tidewater]

I see we're restarting M777 production lines. Did you ever think we'd ever invest any more in towed arty?

Absolutely. Towed arty is much cheaper and lighter than SP. Light infantry divisions need artillery just as heavy divisions do.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Absolutely. Towed arty is much cheaper and lighter than SP. Light infantry divisions need artillery just as heavy divisions do.

With drones and counter-battery radar? Cheap doesn't help when you've become a hole in the ground. I see it as useful only against non-peer forces...

 

[Tidewater]

With drones and counter-battery radar? Cheap doesn't help when you've become a hole in the ground. I see it as useful only against non-peer forces...

Yeah, that's correct. The light divisions were made to be entirely C-130 transportable and they can get their a lot faster than a heavy division (which must rail vehicles to a port and ship vehicles by boat).
If a towed artillery unit is facing an opponent with a counterbattery capability, they had better to really good at shooting and scooting.
With drones, it's even riskier.
Somehow, the Ukrainians are doing it.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Yeah, that's correct. The light divisions were made to be entirely C-130 transportable and they can get their a lot faster than a heavy division (which must rail vehicles to a port and ship vehicles by boat).
If a towed artillery unit is facing an opponent with a counterbattery capability, they had better to really good at shooting and scooting.
With drones, it's even riskier.
Somehow, the Ukrainians are doing it.

It's a struggle, as the Russians have been learning. Some are writing that they're actually ahead of the Ukrainians at this point...

 

[Tidewater]

It's a struggle, as the Russians have been learning. Some are writing that they're actually ahead of the Ukrainians at this point...

One of the key points the Army learned in Iraq, the organization that learns faster wins.
I think in Ukraine, it is a race. The Ukrainians are ahead in some areas. The Russians in others.
The Russians do not appear to be fast learners when it comes to tactics, however.

 

[JDCrimson]

Nobody on the Russian side makes it back from the battlefield to teach the reserves...

One of the key points the Army learned in Iraq, the organization that learns faster wins.
I think in Ukraine, it is a race. The Ukrainians are ahead in some areas. The Russians in others.
The Russians do not appear to be fast learners when it comes to tactics, however.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Nobody on the Russian side makes it back from the battlefield to teach the reserves...

A certain amount of truth in that. They're a very hollow army, in the sense of lacking experienced noncoms. They lacked them in the beginning and the situation has grown worse. Of course, in their "Z" or "meat" attacks, I'm not sure how much it matters...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Sweden is warned to 'brace for war' by civil defence minister

In a rousing speech that took note of his country's hotly anticipated accession to NATO this year, Carl-Oskar Bohlin called on ordinary citizens to ask themselves 'who are you if war comes?'

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Go Bama]

Sweden is warned to 'brace for war' by civil defence minister

In a rousing speech that took note of his country's hotly anticipated accession to NATO this year, Carl-Oskar Bohlin called on ordinary citizens to ask themselves 'who are you if war comes?'

www.dailymail.co.uk

The war is two years old. I wonder what prompted this decision now. Israel/Gaza, American politics, something a defense ministry would know that we don’t????

Regardless of the reason, it’s very sobering to read that Sweden is bracing for war. This whole situation could take a turn for the worse at any point.

 

[Tidewater]

The war is two years old. I wonder what prompted this decision now. Israel/Gaza, American politics, something a defense ministry would know that we don’t????

Regardless of the reason, it’s very sobering to read that Sweden is bracing for war. This whole situation could take a turn for the worse at any point.

The Scandinavian countries all have civil defense plans, which urge (maybe require) each household to have two weeks worth of food in the house (as an example). This could be useful in a war, as well as a natural disaster. This policy gives disaster response planners a mark on the wall for getting systems back up and running.

 

[Go Bama]

Earle usually posts the articles by Nadin Brezezinski and Tom Cooper. Nadin's is the more interesting of the two. Both discuss the downing of a $500 million dollar A-50 early warning radar plane and the Il-22M which accompanies it, but Nadin discusses the demoralizing effect this is having on an already extremely taxed populace. There is an extreme shortage of broad spec antibiotics, insulin, BP meds, plumbers, pipes, etc so Russian infrastructure is failing. They have to import all medicines. Also, Russia does not have the capability to replace the A-50 and it's questionable how many working A-50's they have. Without the A-50, the Ruskies are blind to low flying enemy aircraft.

However, Nadezhdin did not console them: “Judging by the fact that we have 11 trillion rubles included in our budget for 2024, our government is determined to wage this war for a long time .”

People have figured this out. Vladimir Putin is willing to sacrifice every Russian to win in Ukraine. It’s not just a limited mobilization. It’s total war. So, at this point, people are starting to figure this out. They are slowly waking up to the reality that they are simply consumables for the state.

Nadin Brezezinski

All gets summed up in the last two paragraphs.

So when you put all this together, seemingly unconnected as they are, it paints a picture of a slow-moving disaster.

Are we to expect a black swan event? Are Russians starting to wake up? Can they do anything in a fast-closing authoritarian space? What is true is that material conditions within Russia are rapidly approaching the glory days of at least the 1990s. We may be rapidly approaching the end of the USSR.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Earle usually posts the articles by Nadin Brezezinski and Tom Cooper. Nadin's is the more interesting of the two. Both discuss the downing of a $500 million dollar A-50 early warning radar plane and the Il-22M which accompanies it, but Nadin discusses the demoralizing effect this is having on an already extremely taxed populace. There is an extreme shortage of broad spec antibiotics, insulin, BP meds, plumbers, pipes, etc so Russian infrastructure is failing. They have to import all medicines. Also, Russia does not have the capability to replace the A-50 and it's questionable how many working A-50's they have. Without the A-50, the Ruskies are blind to low flying enemy aircraft.



Nadin Brezezinski

All gets summed up in the last two paragraphs.

Actually I still do read her. I didn't know how much general interest there was, particularly since the war has slowed to a crawl...

 

[Go Bama]

Actually I still do read her. I didn't know how much general interest there was, particularly since the war has slowed to a crawl...

I get email notifications so I've been reading them. I thought this one was particularly interesting.

 

[Tidewater]

Earle usually posts the articles by Nadin Brezezinski and Tom Cooper. Nadin's is the more interesting of the two. Both discuss the downing of a $500 million dollar A-50 early warning radar plane and the Il-22M which accompanies it, but Nadin discusses the demoralizing effect this is having on an already extremely taxed populace. There is an extreme shortage of broad spec antibiotics, insulin, BP meds, plumbers, pipes, etc so Russian infrastructure is failing. They have to import all medicines. Also, Russia does not have the capability to replace the A-50 and it's questionable how many working A-50's they have. Without the A-50, the Ruskies are blind to low flying enemy aircraft.



Nadin Brezezinski

All gets summed up in the last two paragraphs.

My only caution would be to not mistake Russians for Americans. Russians do not think like Americans. Russians will put up with an unbelievable amount of crap from the Kremlin, with nary a whimper.
How much crap will they put up with from the Vozhd? Stalin died in office and he murdered tens of millions and oppressed hundreds of millions.
The Anglo-Saxons the Kremlin likes to complain about had an ethic of common folk forcing leaders to respect the common folk. Robin Hood, Magna Carta, Cromwell, etc.
The Russian mentality is the opposite. I show my manhood by demonstrating how much abuse I am willing to put up with from those in charge, not in opposition to them.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

My only caution would be to not mistake Russians for Americans. Russians do not think like Americans. Russians will put up with an unbelievable amount of crap from the Kremlin, with nary a whimper.
How much crap will they put up with from the Vozhd? Stalin died in office and he murdered tens of millions and oppressed hundreds of millions.
The Anglo-Saxons the Kremlin likes to complain about had an ethic of common folk forcing leaders to respect the common folk. Robin Hood, Magna Carta, Cromwell, etc.
The Russian mentality is the opposite. I show my manhood by demonstrating how much abuse I am willing to put up with from those in charge, not in opposition to them.

A couple of years ago, referring to casualties, some Russian official made the remark somewhat to the effect of "You persist in thinking that we think like you; we don't"...

 

[JDCrimson]

Does it reach a tipping point for Russia? Ukraine may not be retaking territory but they sure do seem very adept at blowing up Russian kit well behind the front. They don't have an endless supply of weaponry, maybe drones, but the rest of the stuff needed to mobilize and support infantry is depleted along the front to such a degree that is military useless.

 

[Tidewater]

Does it reach a tipping point for Russia? Ukraine may not be retaking territory but they sure do seem very adept at blowing up Russian kit well behind the front. They don't have an endless supply of weaponry, maybe drones, but the rest of the stuff needed to mobilize and support infantry is depleted along the front to such a degree that is military useless.

I do not think the kit is the issue that will bring about a "tipping point." The dead and maimed bodies are the issue, but the Kremlin has made sure that it is illegal to report on military deaths, or even to photograph cemeteries near military bases as those cemeteries fill up. Your average Russian has no idea how many casualties Russia has sustained, except anecdotally ("My neighbor's son has died in the army.")

If you control the media, you control the mind.