Russia invades Ukraine XV

[Tidewater]

You are 100% correct. Many of the troops were getting letters from home about how bad things were and they knew the whole thing was lost and wanted to go home and take care of their families.

The other interesting thing is that Grant was willing to keep the pressure on the Army of Northern Virginia. During the Overlanf Campaign he just kept sliding to his left and trying to get past Lee’s right flank. When he wasn’t successful he was willing to frontally assault prepared positions like those at Cold Harbor. He suffered more casualties during that campaign than Lee had in his army and he just kept coming. Because he could replace the troops The other generals before him would lose or have a stalemate, such as Antietam, and let Lee rest, refit, and work to refill his ranks as much as possible. Grant kept the pressure on and bled Lee dry. It was a good strategic plan, but it was brutal. I’ve always thought Sherman was the better field general. How he handled the Atlanta campaign was a masterclass in winning without frontal assault after frontal assault.

The difference in the dynamics of Petersburg and Ukraine today is that the from is not getting appreciably longer. Also, I do not think there has been a spike in Russian desertion. (Maybe, but the Ukrainians would know better than I would).
Desertion (then and now) can be three sways: you can desert to the enemy and join his fighting forces, you can desert to the enemy and promise not to fight any more (or get sent to a POW camp), or you can just run to your own rear, throwing away your rifle and uniform and try to make your way as best you can.

Not sure how many of the first option has happened in Ukraine. I am not sure if course two (parole) is an option for Russian soldiers in Ukraine. There might be some of option three, but Putin's police state is likely to catch you eventually and if they do, shoot you.

 

[Tidewater]

This is doubtless for foreign consumption. Margerita Simonyan is the host of a pro-Kremlin propaganda show.
Chechen Leader Backs Call to ‘Bomb Siberia’ to Own the West
This is bat-stuff crazy. She says popping a nuke over Siberia will fry electronics in Japan and the US will be downwind from the fallout.

 

[TexasBama]

Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks

The withdrawal is a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.

www.wsj.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

This is doubtless for foreign consumption. Margerita Simonyan is the host of a pro-Kremlin propaganda show.
Chechen Leader Backs Call to ‘Bomb Siberia’ to Own the West
This is bat-stuff crazy. She says popping a nuke over Siberia will fry electronics in Japan and the US will be downwind from the fallout.

Does she not realize that a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world traceable to Russia, and they are all instantly traceable, Moscow probably ceases to exist, along with her? I've seen hairbrained ideas before, but it's disturbing this is coming from inside the Kremlin. That missile would be tracked from when it left the ground and would appear to be headed for Japan. Poof! Major cities in Russia cease to exist. And I'd bet our nukes work...

 

[Tidewater]

Does she not realize that a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world traceable to Russia, and they are all instantly traceable, Moscow probably ceases to exist, along with her? I've seen hairbrained ideas before, but it's disturbing this is coming from inside the Kremlin. That missile would be tracked from when it left the ground and would appear to be headed for Japan. Poof! Major cities in Russia cease to exist. And I'd bet our nukes work...

Simonyan's point was not to hide who did it, but for Russia to "demonstrate resolve," in a way that would not hurt Russia much, but the fall-out of which literally would land on the US.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Simonyan's point was not to hide who did it, but for Russia to "demonstrate resolve," in a way that would not hurt Russia much, but the fall-out of which literally would land on the US.

That was not my point. I'm presuming she intended to deliver the device via rocket. Any rocket anywhere in the world is detected from launch. Assuming it's from one of their known bases, it would have a trajectory which would be indistinguishable from on heading for Japan, an ally. As I understand our rules of MAD, it would lead to massive retaliation immediately. I don't think we'd sit by and observe some hairbrained "demonstration," even if warned, because we've learned not to trust them...

 

[Bazza]

51 more Ukrainians killed........

Russia-Ukraine updates: At least 51 killed in Kharkiv attack – Kyiv

These were the updates for the Russia-Ukraine war on Thursday, October 5.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[JDCrimson]

Its not a coincidence this civilian attack happened after we failed to put UKraine aid in the CR and we voted out our Speaker. I suspect these attacks will ramp up until we get our House in order.

51 more Ukrainians killed........

Russia-Ukraine updates: At least 51 killed in Kharkiv attack – Kyiv

These were the updates for the Russia-Ukraine war on Thursday, October 5.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Tidewater]

That was not my point. I'm presuming she intended to deliver the device via rocket. Any rocket anywhere in the world is detected from launch. Assuming it's from one of their known bases, it would have a trajectory which would be indistinguishable from on heading for Japan, an ally. As I understand our rules of MAD, it would lead to massive retaliation immediately. I don't think we'd sit by and observe some hairbrained "demonstration," even if warned, because we've learned not to trust them...

I am not familiar with current US nuclear stances, but I seriously doubt we would launch anything in such conditions.
US Strategic Command Watch Officer: "We have just witnessed a Russian launch consistent with the launch of an SS-25 Sickle."
General Officer of the Watch: "Where is it headed?"
Watch officer: "Unknown, but it is headed east, could be Japan."
General officer: "Get me the President. ...Mr. President, we have to launch a massive retaliation against the Russians."
I do not think that would be how it worked.

During the Cold War, the US had a posture called "Launch on Warning." When US-Soviet tensions were at a peak (Cuban missile crisis, Korean Airliner shootdown, 1985 Reforger, etc. the US would be more likely to go to "launch on warning."

If 167 plumes appear out of Russia today and the missiles are headed for the US silo fields (a "Counterforce" strategy), maybe we would launch on warning.
If one missile may be headed to Tokyo (a "countervalue" strategy), would we launch on warning? Probably not.

Prof. Don Snow used to teach this stuff at Alabama when I was an undergraduate.
In the days of grading before computers, he had a stamp that said, "B[ovine] S[catology]!" If a student deserved it, Snow would use it liberally.

 

[Bazza]

Its not a coincidence this civilian attack happened after we failed to put UKraine aid in the CR and we voted out our Speaker. I suspect these attacks will ramp up until we get our House in order.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I am not familiar with current US nuclear stances, but I seriously doubt we would launch anything in such conditions.
US Strategic Command Watch Officer: "We have just witnessed a Russian launch consistent with the launch of an SS-25 Sickle."
General Officer of the Watch: "Where is it headed?"
Watch officer: "Unknown, but it is headed east, could be Japan."
General officer: "Get me the President. ...Mr. President, we have to launch a massive retaliation against the Russians."
I do not think that would be how it worked.

During the Cold War, the US had a posture called "Launch on Warning." When US-Soviet tensions were at a peak (Cuban missile crisis, Korean Airliner shootdown, 1985 Reforger, etc. the US would be more likely to go to "launch on warning."

If 167 plumes appear out of Russia today and the missiles are headed for the US silo fields (a "Counterforce" strategy), maybe we would launch on warning.
If one missile may be headed to Tokyo (a "countervalue" strategy), would we launch on warning? Probably not.

Prof. Don Snow used to teach this stuff at Alabama when I was an undergraduate.
In the days of grading before computers, he had a stamp that said, "B[ovine] S[catology]!" If a student deserved it, Snow would use it liberally.

I'll bow to your obviously superior knowledge, but I see lots of other downsides to this scenario. Anyway, I think a "demonstration" nuclear event is far more likely in Ukraine...

 

[Tidewater]

I'll bow to your obviously superior knowledge, but I see lots of other downsides to this scenario. Anyway, I think a "demonstration" nuclear event is far more likely in Ukraine...

That I would agree with. Popping a nuke in Russian territory is a crazy idea, but pro-Kremlin propagandists are bent on rattling the nuclear saber, even to an insane degree to get the West to back off.
Popping one over Lviv, on the other hand, puts the damaging fallout mostly in Ukraine and "demonstrates Russian resolve."

 

[TIDE-HSV]

That I would agree with. Popping a nuke in Russian territory is a crazy idea, but pro-Kremlin propagandists are bent on rattling the nuclear saber, even to an insane degree to get the West to back off.
Popping one over Lviv, on the other hand, puts the damaging fallout mostly in Ukraine and "demonstrates Russian resolve."

Let's hope he doesn't get that desperate. He's got chance now to catch his breath, with our HR disfunction...

 

[Its On A Slab]

Its not a coincidence this civilian attack happened after we failed to put UKraine aid in the CR and we voted out our Speaker. I suspect these attacks will ramp up until we get our House in order.

The House is a dumpster fire. McCarthy's goose was cooked when he negotiated that rule where one member of Congress could call a removal vote. Which put a target on his back if he ever wavered from the handfull of hard-right fanatics.

Republicans can only blame themselves for allowing theise goons to stay in the Republican caucus.

Democrats had zero reason to vote to keep him. He was not a friend to them, nor our nation.

I hope the American voters clean House in November 2024.

 

[PaulD]

I am not familiar with current US nuclear stances, but I seriously doubt we would launch anything in such conditions.
US Strategic Command Watch Officer: "We have just witnessed a Russian launch consistent with the launch of an SS-25 Sickle."
General Officer of the Watch: "Where is it headed?"
Watch officer: "Unknown, but it is headed east, could be Japan."
General officer: "Get me the President. ...Mr. President, we have to launch a massive retaliation against the Russians."
I do not think that would be how it worked.

During the Cold War, the US had a posture called "Launch on Warning." When US-Soviet tensions were at a peak (Cuban missile crisis, Korean Airliner shootdown, 1985 Reforger, etc. the US would be more likely to go to "launch on warning."

If 167 plumes appear out of Russia today and the missiles are headed for the US silo fields (a "Counterforce" strategy), maybe we would launch on warning.
If one missile may be headed to Tokyo (a "countervalue" strategy), would we launch on warning? Probably not.

Prof. Don Snow used to teach this stuff at Alabama when I was an undergraduate.
In the days of grading before computers, he had a stamp that said, "B[ovine] S[catology]!" If a student deserved it, Snow would use it liberally.

I remember Dr. Snow fondly from my undergrad days; fortunately, I never received that stamp.

 

[Tidewater]

I remember Dr. Snow fondly from my undergrad days; fortunately, I never received that stamp.

Don Snow used to smoke in class while lecturing. He was a professor powered by coffee and cigarettes.

 

[Tidewater]

Republicans can only blame themselves for allowing theise goons to stay in the Republican caucus.

Gaetz is the gift that keeps on giving.

 

[Tidewater]

It may be time to re-examine Ukrainian strategy using the ends-ways-means model and the instruments of national power: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic, or DIME.
The ends sought are restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
The ways are a symmetrical military expulsion of Russian armed forces.
The Ukrainian diplomatic instrument is to get other nations to condemn Russian aggression. In information, Ukraine has been effective at influencing the Ukrainian population but influencing the Russia population is difficult because Russia exercises strict censorship. The government and Putin's allies control all the television and the government blocks web pages it says are spreading disinformation. Ukraine has embargoed trade with Russia.
As to the military means, they need military assistance from abroad. Even with that help, the military means may still be inadequate.
When there is a mismatch between ends, ways, and means, the strategy contains risk. This needs to be briefed to the political decision-maker so he can (a) accept the risk or (b) reduce the ends, come up with new ways, or additional means. Ukraine has declared it will not accept less than total liberation of the pre-2014 borders. It already has mobilized to full extent possible, so more means is not an option. New concepts may be possible but I do not know what that might be.

 

[JDCrimson]

I read an article on Kiev Independent this morning that I now can't find, where the Moldovan President said that Proghzin and Russia collaborated to stage a coup over her through election interference and organic protests with violent participants to turn it violent. It read like a very familiar playbook...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Another series by Don Hill, writing on Cooper's account...

Hill I