Russia invades Ukraine XV

[JDCrimson]

Im embarrassed by my math error... 10 yards per day is even more ridiculous...

Anyway, I was hoping the Russian defense would be brittle - hard on the surface and then nothing behind.

i was hoping Urkraine could deploy enough special force platoons behind enemy lines to disrupt the Russian infrastructure would weaken their defenses such that a breakthrough would happen severing Crimea from Russian support and protection breaking off chunks of territory at a time.

Blunt force maneuver across the widespan of the front doesnt seem like a war Ukraine can win allowing the Russians to re-trench even harder around the occupied metro areas.

A few points.
1. 10 meters is 11 yards.
2. Breaching a defensive position is a battle drill for a US Army mech/tank brigade. The brigade commander designates the spot he wants to breach, then, like the conductor of an orchestra, he "conducts" the brigade, synchronizing the three maneuver battalions, artillery support, USAF Close Air Support, engineers, logistics, and now drones, etc. etc. The mech/tank units of the Army practice this in live fires at the National Training Center in Fort Irwin, Calif. all the time, with live ammo. They do it so often it is like an audible play in the NFL.
The Ukrainians underfunded their military for decades after independence. The governments had other priorities. Conducting a breach of a defensive position the American way is simply beyond the abilities of the Ukrainian Army. They cannot orchestrate activities above company level (~100 soldiers).Thus, they are reduced to "nibbling" at the Russian defenses. The Red Army in WW II used to pick a spot, pound it with tens of thousands of rounds of artillery, then throw a Tank Army at a defending Germany battalion. No matter how good that battalion was, eventually, they would get swamped. The lead Soviet regiment or even division might get its teeth kicked in before swamping the Germans (e.g. Seelow Heights, April 1945), but the second division would drive through the gap unscathed. And the Third division, and the fourth, etc. etc. Then they would drive deep and hard. Another Soviet Tank Army would do the same thing a few hundred kilometers north or south along the front and the two penetrations would meet up somewhere behind German lines. Because Hitler was a moron, he would order the German units inside the pocket to stand fast, nobody would escape and every German soldier inside the pocket would be killed or captured. The Ukrainians do not have enough tank armies to repeat this Soviet tactic either. So they are left with "nibbling," hoping that they are attriting the Russians at a rate greater than the population disparity between the two countries.
3. There are some already-identified defensive positions in the Russian rear (Myrske, Kuznetsivka, Rozivka). Wait until next spring when the campaigning weather returns and there will be a lot more. A lot more.
4. The Russian rear is not denuded of forces. It is secured by the FSB and RosGvardiya, the Russian Guard. RosGvardiya is like well-armed riot police. They have AK-74s, light machine guns, and some APCs. Enough to make Ukrainian insurgents be wary.

Sadly, this summer was Ukraine's best chance to win the war. Now, I fear they are looking at a frozen conflict lasting decades.

 

[Tidewater]

Im embarrassed by my math error... 10 yards per day is even more ridiculous...

Anyway, I was hoping the Russian defense would be brittle - hard on the surface and then nothing behind.

i was hoping Urkraine could deploy enough special force platoons behind enemy lines to disrupt the Russian infrastructure would weaken their defenses such that a breakthrough would happen severing Crimea from Russian support and protection breaking off chunks of territory at a time.

Blunt force maneuver across the widespan of the front doesnt seem like a war Ukraine can win allowing the Russians to re-trench even harder around the occupied metro areas.

I would bet that the density of Russian troops drops sharply the further one moves from the front line. The problem is that Novorossiya is a big open space. Villages every so often and in between, vast seas of grassland. The FSB and RosGvardiya are in the cities and larger villages.
For Special Forces to be effective in that role, it requires significant population willing to stick its neck out for Ukraine (for guerillas and auxiliaries). It appears that the pro-Ukrainian population largely bugged out with the Ukrainian army in 2022. What is left is the very old and pro-Russian residents. SF ops like you proposed also require infiltration and constant resupply. I am not sure that Ukraine can penetrate Russian air space reliably enough to make that worthwhile. Thus, if the Ukrainians did not caché a lot of ammo and explosives before the war, then any Special Forces now behind Russian lines will quickly run out of ammo and explosives.
Over the winter, the Russians will dig a lot more trenches and emplace a lot more mines. If Russian national-level morale does not break (and it is not likely to at this point), then the Ukrainians are looking at decades of frozen conflict.

 

[Tidewater]

And there are two basic forms of maneuver: squeegee and "sichelschnitt."
The former is to push the enemy back all along the front. (e.g. Ike's "Broad Front" strategy after Market-Garden.)
The latter is to rip two gaps in the enemy's front, and squirt big mechanized forces through the gaps. The two mechanized forces link up somewhere in the enemy's rear, creating a pocket of enemy troops that cannot be supplied. The German's excelled at this in 1941, and to a lesser extent 1942. With Operation Uranus (November 1942), the Red Army did this to the Germans over and over, all the way to Berlin.
Because of the geography, if the Ukrainians could have done just one pincer and gotten to Mariupol, they could have recovered all of Novorossiya and maybe Crimea. Now, with the rasputitsa, that window has closed.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

And there are two basic forms of maneuver: squeegee and "sichelschnitt."
The former is to push the enemy back all along the front. (e.g. Ike's "Broad Front" strategy after Market-Garden.)
The latter is to rip two gaps in the enemy's front, and squirt big mechanized forces through the gaps. The two mechanized forces link up somewhere in the enemy's rear, creating a pocket of enemy troops that cannot be supplied. The German's excelled at this in 1941, and to a lesser extent 1942. With Operation Uranus (November 1942), the Red Army did this to the Germans over and over, all the way to Berlin.
Because of the geography, if the Ukrainians could have done just one pincer and gotten to Mariupol, they could have recovered all of Novorossiya and maybe Crimea. Now, with the rasputitsa, that window has closed.

I've heard that the rasputitsa is not nearly so bad down south. In the same place, I read that the Ukrainians call it "bezdorizhzhia," which means "roadlessness"...

 

[Tidewater]

I've heard that the rasputitsa is not nearly so bad down south. In the same place, I read that the Ukrainians call it "bezdorizhzhia," which means "roadlessness"...

You are probably right on both counts.
Still, the autumn rains will probably not accelerate Ukrainian offensive ops.
For those not familiar with the term, here is some footage from the rasputitsa in the autumn 1941.

 

[crimsonaudio]

You are probably right on both counts.
Still, the autumn rains will probably not accelerate Ukrainian offensive ops.
For those not familiar with the term, here is some footage from the rasputitsa in the autumn 1941.

That's some really nasty slop.

 

[Tidewater]

That's some really nasty slop.

There are more paved roads now than in 1941 (the Communists were not universally incompetent), and, as Earl said, it is not as bad as further north, but yes, cross-country mobility will not be good for a few weeks, until the ground freezes.

 

[TexasBama]

This is pretty much covering the entire eastern half of Ukraine

Chernozem - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[TIDE-HSV]

There are more paved roads now than in 1941 (the Communists were not universally incompetent), and, as Earl said, it is not as bad as further north, but yes, cross-country mobility will not be good for a few weeks, until the ground freezes.

According to this Business Insider article I read a few days ago, the Abrams can handle a good deal of mud. IF it can handle the southern mud and the Russian tanks can't, then that throws a whole different light on the winter offensive...

Abrams+mud

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Another Don Hill series of three. I'll add them as I get them read...

Hill I

Hill II

Hill III

 

[crimsonaudio]

 

[Tidewater]

View attachment 37890

That sucks, but I do not see a "creeping offensive" working in a relevant timeframe. Summer 2023 was Ukraine's best chance to win. The Ukrainians could not pull it off.
Now the most likely way of Ukraine winning is a political collapse in Russia and I do not see that happening any time soon. It could happen, but I do not see it.
I think Ukraine can hold what they now have for a long time. I do not think they have the combat power to recover what they have already lost to the Russians.
If the best you can do is hold what you've got, then it is best to negotiate the best peace deal you can get.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

That sucks, but I do not see a "creeping offensive" working in a relevant timeframe. Summer 2023 was Ukraine's best chance to win. The Ukrainians could not pull it off.
Now the most likely way of Ukraine winning is a political collapse in Russia and I do not see that happening any time soon. It could happen, but I do not see it.
I think Ukraine can hold what they now have for a long time. I do not think they have the combat power to recover what they have already lost to the Russians.
If the best you can do is hold what you've got, then it is best to negotiate the best peace deal you can get.

I hate it, but you're right.

 

[JDCrimson]

But what is the best peace deal? Ukraine gets screwed in any peace deal that doesnt include NATO admission. Otherwise, Russia will keep creeping westward. How do you hang Ukraine out knowing in a matter of a few years Russia will be knocking on the door of the NATO border?

Ukraine really needs the air support to make the minefields irrelevant. Its obvious you cant drive an enemy out of such a large expanse with artillery and infantry in the modern era. NATO countries dont even have enough ground kit to fight this way because they would never fight a war just on the ground alone.

To restore some normal peace time to the world, Russia needs to be neutered.

That sucks, but I do not see a "creeping offensive" working in a relevant timeframe. Summer 2023 was Ukraine's best chance to win. The Ukrainians could not pull it off.
Now the most likely way of Ukraine winning is a political collapse in Russia and I do not see that happening any time soon. It could happen, but I do not see it.
I think Ukraine can hold what they now have for a long time. I do not think they have the combat power to recover what they have already lost to the Russians.
If the best you can do is hold what you've got, then it is best to negotiate the best peace deal you can get.

 

[Tidewater]

But what is the best peace deal? Ukraine gets screwed in any peace deal that doesnt include NATO admission. Otherwise, Russia will keep creeping westward. How do you hang Ukraine out knowing in a matter of a few years Russia will be knocking on the door of the NATO border?

Ukraine really needs the air support to make the minefields irrelevant. Its obvious you cant drive an enemy out of such a large expanse with artillery and infantry in the modern era. NATO countries dont even have enough ground kit to fight this way because they would never fight a war just on the ground alone.

To restore some normal peace time to the world, Russia needs to be neutered.

The best peace deal you get get will have to get hammered out at the negotiating table. It is morally objectionable (Americans like to look at victory as standing on your opponent's chest with the muzzle of your rifle in his mouth and saying, "Shall we negotiate?"), but that is not how most wars end.
Airpower does not make minefields irrelevant.

I would love to see the plan by which Ukraine will recover the lost ground at a reasonable cost. At this point, I just do not see that as being within the realm of possibilities. How is Zelenskii balancing ends, ways, and means to achieve his strategic goals? Is the strategy to continue the bloodletting until the Russian state collapses? That might be a while.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

But what is the best peace deal? Ukraine gets screwed in any peace deal that doesnt include NATO admission. Otherwise, Russia will keep creeping westward. How do you hang Ukraine out knowing in a matter of a few years Russia will be knocking on the door of the NATO border?

Ukraine really needs the air support to make the minefields irrelevant. Its obvious you cant drive an enemy out of such a large expanse with artillery and infantry in the modern era. NATO countries dont even have enough ground kit to fight this way because they would never fight a war just on the ground alone.

To restore some normal peace time to the world, Russia needs to be neutered.

I’m not sure peace vs. NATO membership is a binary choice. Why not negotiate a peace and grant membership to the new smaller Ukraine?

 

[Tidewater]

I’m not sure peace vs. NATO membership is a binary choice. Why not negotiate a peace and grant membership to the new smaller Ukraine?

I can assure you that is not going to happen. When G W Bush pushed for Georgian membership in 2008, France and Germany opposed, and to make it more polite (by not mentioning Georgia directly), NATO declared "No country with an unresolved territorial dispute can get NATO membership." Russia invaded Georgie two months later and created (wait for it...) "an unresolved territorial dispute," which persists to this day (Abkhazia and South Ossetia).

NATO does not want to inherit an unfinished war.

 

[Tidewater]

To caveat what I wrote earlier, if the strategy is to hold on until the Russian regime collapses and then take back the lost ground in the chaos that ensues, then I would want to see what concepts (ways) Ukraine is undertaking to bring about the domestic political collapse of he regime. Propaganda? Subversion of Russian elites? Exacerbating ethnic divisions inside the Russian Federation? That would involve substantial secret services (means) and money (also means). I do not see those being expended by Ukraine.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I’m not sure peace vs. NATO membership is a binary choice. Why not negotiate a peace and grant membership to the new smaller Ukraine?

I think his point was without NATO membership (and the protection that comes with it), a peace treaty right now just delays Russia's inevitable push westward.

 

[Tidewater]

This is interesting:
The Quisling governor of Zaporizhzhia announced the construction of a new railroad from Rostov to Yakymivka.

Railroad construction? Why would they be doing that? Because it connects Rostov and eastern Novorossiya bypassing Tokmak, which is not longer tenable.