Russia Invades Ukraine XVI

[4Q Basket Case]

This seems like a suicide mission to me. These soldiers wont be allowed to retreat imo.

Does make you wonder if they will recruit Anti-Putinists along the way to increase their numbers?

I tend to agree -- seems to me they can't support the flanks, so they're bound to get cut off from behind and surrounded. They might recruit a few locals, but I don't see where it could possibly be enough to make a difference.

If it's obvious to us, you'd have to believe the Ukrainians have thought about it as well...which makes you wonder what the goal of the incursion (can't really call it an invasion) is.

 

[crimsonaudio]

 

[mdb-tpet]

View attachment 44836

I've been hoping for a while they would take the initiative and maybe pull the old Russia trick of just burning everything and walking away.

 

[AUDub]

I tend to agree -- seems to me they can't support the flanks, so they're bound to get cut off from behind and surrounded. They might recruit a few locals, but I don't see where it could possibly be enough to make a difference.

If it's obvious to us, you'd have to believe the Ukrainians have thought about it as well...which makes you wonder what the goal of the incursion (can't really call it an invasion) is.

right now the Ukrainians haven’t extended so far that they have to concern themselves with a flanking maneuver. The countryside is acting as their defense.

People draw maps like this that conveniently ignore geography and available infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821731549613539346

There are no highways along those arrows. There is thick forest and several rivers.

 

[NWGATideFan]

The CBC looked at 3 theories of why Ukraine attacked.

Number #3 was very interesting: Negotiation.

I did not realize Zelensky had invited Putin to a sit down:

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...nts-russia-at-the-table-for-next-peace-summit

 

[crimsonaudio]

right now the Ukrainians haven’t extended so far that they have to concern themselves with a flanking maneuver. The countryside is acting as their defense.

People draw maps like this that conveniently ignore geography and available infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821731549613539346

There are no highways along those arrows. There is thick forest and several rivers.

Almost as if the Ukranians are smart people who thought this through before starting...

 

[Bamaro]

I'm guessing that their plan is to defeat Putin more so than defeating Russia. Show his blunder into Ukraine for what it is and have Putin fall from within.

 

[Padreruf]

I'm guessing that their plan is to defeat Putin more so than defeating Russia. Show his blunder into Ukraine for what it is and have Putin fall from within.

The problem with that perspective is that Putin is untouchable from within...he has put his cronies in all the top positions and Russa is more like a mafia run organization than a country -- from what I have read. I would hope someone would take him out...but it doesn't seem likely.

 

[Bodhisattva]

The problem with that perspective is that Putin is untouchable from within...he has put his cronies in all the top positions and Russa is more like a mafia run organization than a country -- from what I have read. I would hope someone would take him out...but it doesn't seem likely.

Yeah, if Putin even suspects one is less than 100% lap dog, that person soon loses all dexterity on high-rise balconies.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Ukraine says it seized as much land in a week as Russia has so far this year. Here’s what we know

 

[Jon]

Ukrainians are clearly very clever

Toyota Mirai Turned Into Hydrogen Bomb By Ukrainian Forces Explodes With The Force Of 400 Pounds Of TNT

The Toyota Mirai hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle has hardly been an international sales success, thanks to poor hydrogen infrastructure, expense, and polarizing design, but it proved successful to Ukrainian forces which scavenged parts from the hydrogen car to create the world’s smallest...

autos.yahoo.com

 

[NWGATideFan]

Ukrainians are clearly very clever

Toyota Mirai Turned Into Hydrogen Bomb By Ukrainian Forces Explodes With The Force Of 400 Pounds Of TNT

The Toyota Mirai hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle has hardly been an international sales success, thanks to poor hydrogen infrastructure, expense, and polarizing design, but it proved successful to Ukrainian forces which scavenged parts from the hydrogen car to create the world’s smallest...

autos.yahoo.com

Wow, that's wild.
Seriously, give Ukraine everything they need to end this war.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Visegrád 24
The Russians published a video yesterday of a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter destroying a military column in the Kursk region of Russia with the use of guided missile fire. It was later that they realized they had attacked their own column.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824038329328824537

 

[Bazza]

Sudzha has been captured now........apparently against light opposition.

More here:

Facts about the Russian town of Sudza claimed by Ukraine as part of its incursion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the country’s military has taken full control of the town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region.

apnews.com

 

[92tide]

 

[AUDub]

Who could have guessed having Warhammer 40k style Commissars is a bad idea.

Ukrainian Troops Capture Their First Big Town In Russia’s Kursk Oblast

Chechen blocking units turned back retreating Russian troops in Sudzha—so they surrendered, instead.

www.forbes.com

 

[Tidewater]

right now the Ukrainians haven’t extended so far that they have to concern themselves with a flanking maneuver. The countryside is acting as their defense.

People draw maps like this that conveniently ignore geography and available infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1821731549613539346

There are no highways along those arrows. There is thick forest and several rivers.

Look at Google Earth for
Luk'yantsi, Ukraine.
This is near where any pincers would link up when pinching this penetration off.
There is a lot of steppe (very flat or gently rolling), a few forests, at least not one that would stop tanks. (You would be surprised at what trees a tank can drive over)
There are creeks, but no rivers, and this time of year, I bet the creeks are pretty dry.

The reason Russia is not pinching this off is the lack of troops and the inability to use HETs to move tanks that distance. Tracked vehicles are notoriously unreliable. Just driving them 110 km will cause a certain number to break en route (even if the maintenance officers have not skimmed parts off the top and sold them for private profit, which is unlikely in Russia).
As for troops to pinch this off, I would imagine that the Russians are engaged in a max effort to nudge the front forward inside Ukraine and they are scrambling for troops to stop the Ukrainian penetration into Kursk Oblast. Finding enough troops to hold the shoulders and then pinch this off will be enormously difficult. Ukraine is probably focusing its ISR efforts on the roads leading to the shoulders.

 

[Tidewater]

This is one of those times when asking "cui bono?" and employing Occam's razor, right off the bat, would lead you to the truth.
Ukrainian team blew up Nord Stream pipeline, claims report
The amazing thing is that the US government asked the Ukrainians not to do this op.
These guys would probably advise the Brits in 1940, "Don't bomb Germany! You'll make Hitler angry!"

 

[AUDub]

This is one of those times when asking "cui bono?" and employing Occam's razor, right off the bat, would lead you to the truth.
Ukrainian team blew up Nord Stream pipeline, claims report
The amazing thing is that the US government asked the Ukrainians not to do this op.
These guys would probably advise the Brits in 1940, "Don't bomb Germany! You'll make Hitler angry!"

with the benefit of hindsight Seymour Hersh looks pretty stupid right now.

 

[Tidewater]

with the benefit of hindsight Seymour Hersh looks pretty stupid right now.

Or at least gullible.
This is why I ask "cui bono?" and consider Occam's razor.
They are not always right but they often lead you the right way.