Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII
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Government papers found in an Alaskan hotel reveal new details of Trump-Putin summit
Papers with U.S. State Department markings, found Friday morning in the business center of an Alaskan hotel, revealed previously undisclosed and potentially sensitive details about the Aug. 15 meetings between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin in Anchorage.
Eight pages, that appear to have been produced by U.S. staff and left behind accidentally, shared precise locations and meeting times of the summit and phone numbers of U.S. government employees.
Absolutely.
Demographics or political leanings have changed drastically since 2010.
In 2010, for the most part ethnic Ukrainians supported the Fatherland part and ethnic Russians supported the Party of Regions. There were shades of grey however in both eastern and western Ukraine. Some ethnic Ukrainians in Donetsk probably voted for the Party of Regions (although most ethnic Ukrainians voted Fatherland).
Some ethnic Russians in western Ukraine voted Fatherland (although most voted party of regions).
Plus, there were allegations of voting irregularities in the 2010 elections, so we cannot be sure the reported vote tallies were entirely accurate.
Also, in 2014, most of the pro-Kyiv residents of the LDP and DPR left so by the process of elimination, the LDR & DPR became more pro-Kremlin. Agsin in 2022, the terrain occupied since the most recent Russian invasion became more pro-Russians as most of the pro-Kyiv Ukrainians left with the Ukrainian army, so those that remained were pro-Kremlin, and they have been augmented with Russians the Kremlin has moved in.
Finally, many ethnic Russians in western Ukraine that voted Party of Regions in 2010 have switched their allegiance.out of disgust at Russian behavior.
The bottom line is that, since 2010, the blue regions have become more blue and the red regions have become more red.
That was the case in the cities of Donetsk (taken over by Russia in 2014) and Mariupol (taken over by Russia in 2022).
On the other hand, pro-Ukrainians have run out of these places further west—some into the unoccupied parts of eastern Ukraine, and some into central or western Ukraine.
Following the setbacks due to Russian advances last week, there are positive news in the Ukrainian counteroffensive this week. Ukrainian forces were able to recapture most of the land lost to the Russians last week and killed hundreds / captured dozens of Russians. Hard to know the exact number of dead Russians, but what has happened is that Russians have pushed their soldiers to attack a failed Ukrainian defense without any aerial, artillery, or tank support. They got cut off and then were slowly destroyed by the Ukrainian air force using GBU bombs and artillery.
Here is the map:
Here is the map:
This is true. It is the deliberate policy of the Russian government to sponsor Russian settlers brought into the occupied portions of Ukraine.
I suspect these "settlers" are like the German settlers brought into occupied Polish and Soviet territories by the Nazis in the early 1940s. They live precariously and have not put roots down too deep because they might have to bug out on short order.
True. It takes many years before it's solid. I've watched the Latinization of the Südtirol, both from a distance and afar, sometimes with input from the inhabitants themselves. The Tirolers themselves think of themselves as Tirolers first, and secondarily as Austrians or Germans. If they think of themselves as Italians at all, it's a far distant third. The Italian government has had a century to try to supplant inherent nationalism with only minimal success...
Success in blunting some of the Russians' tactical offensives will not bring about grand strategic success. The German blunted Soviet offensives all the way from Stalingrad to Berlin, but they still ended up in Berlin. Joe Johnston blunted Sherman's tactical offensive maneuvers all the way from Chattanooga to Atlanta, but he still ended up in Atlanta (where he was relieved of command).
Sadly, the trend of the front lines in Ukraine is ever westward. I do not know how Ukraine can change that trend.
Why not compare the other way, i.e., when everyone was giving up on the USSR when Guderian’s tanks were a few dozen miles from Moscow?
The problem with associations is that they can be twisted to fit your narrative.
Who was "giving up on the USSR" in 1941? The Brits did not. They kept Lend-Lease going all winter. Stalin did not. He stayed in Moscow.
And this is no argument by analogy. It is merely stating the obvious fact that cutting off and crushing selected Russian penetration, while good on its own, is still strategically defensive. To win the war (as victory is currently defined by Ukraine), Ukraine has to assume the strategic offensive and push the Russians out of Ukrainian territory. No amount blunting Russia's tactical offensives is going to liberate Mariupol, Sebastopol, Donetsk or Lugansk (unless the Ukrainian strategy is to get the Russian army to quit wholesale on the scale of 1918, but the weaker out-attriting the stronger power is really unusual).
Let's try this.
Today the population of Russia is 143M
Ukraine's is 39M
Russia's GDP is $2,000B
Ukraine's is $179B
Ukraine, with significant external military support (hardware, but not European boots on the ground fighting alongside Ukrainian troops) may be postured to blunt further Russian tactical offensives. Taking the strategic offensive and pushing Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory is simply beyond Ukrainian means, even with a lot of external military support. There is a strategic ends-ways-means imbalance. The ends are too grandiose for the means at hand. And I have yet to see a game-changing way the Ukrainians can take advantage of.
For the sake of discussion, you are the President of the United States, what do you do about Ukraine?
I’ve replied on this question several days ago: https://www.tidefans.com/forums/threads/russia-invades-ukraine-xviii.339188/post-4344586
I understand that Russia's advances are glacial, but Ukraine's stated policy is to push that line past where it was in 2022, all the way down to zero.
Is that morally right? Absolutely. Ukraine has every right to liberate every square cm of its territory. And I hope they do.
Is it realistic?
The Germans were fighting a multi front war. They were fighting in Africa, Western Europe, and Italy at different points along with smaller fronts. The USSR was superior in population and production as the war ramped up. This doesn't take into account the US and British production the Germans had to deal with as well. They also had the US and Brits pouring supplies and material into their war effort. The Russian army was driving America trucks and eating Spam. There is really no comparison to WW2 and the USSR's situation.
Russia now is fighting a one front war and a narrow one at that against a numerically inferior foe with a far smaller economy. The supplies and equipment they have been given or sold has kept them upright, but the numbers game over the long haul will crush them. I want Putin completely thrown out of Ukraine, but I don't see how without NATO and specifically US troops, air power and naval power intervening. That would end Russia in Ukraine in quick order, but do we really want nuclear powers at war even in Ukraine?
Advances in warfare are slow until they aren't. If the dam breaks it can go bad quick. I know you understand that better than anyone on this board.
Absolutely, but that cuts both ways. The Russian front could collapse or the Ukrainian front. Especially in a society in which dissent is suppressed, you never know how close that is until it happens.
If Barbara Eden were to cross her arms and blink to cause every Russian to get out of his trench and run east until all of the Ukrainian territory was free of them, no one would be happier than me. I want Ukraine liberated and I want Putin and his cronies to pay for what they have done.
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