The November 4, 2025 National/State/Local Election Thread

[92tide]

Yeah, like you know more about what goes in Georgia than I do....

i have to keep my “selma was actually technically incorrect about a matter of fact” tally

 

[selmaborntidefan]

The margins of victory are significant as well. Democratic candidates outpaced Harris’ percentages in almost every Virginia county, red or blue.

I think that's also a fair point - but I don't know the degree to which we can extrapolate, either.

One thing we have to remember is this: those candidates elected Governor tend to have lived and served in those states for years so OF COURSE their numbers (in theory) should be higher. Plus, there's also the brutal fact of precisely who the opponent is, too. LBJ beat Goldwater by 16 million votes and pointed out to his own folks on the first day of his elected term that 3 million of those he'd already lost because they were only his because of Goldwater.

I've just never thought there was nearly as much to the midterms as the consensus says. That's because I don't think there's a HUGE number of people who go into the booth on one day and say, "This time I'm voting for the Democrat" and then two years later go in and say, "This time I'm voting for the Republican."

Consider the linchpin of that argument, which is 1994. The GOP wiped the floor with the Democrats and took 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats. But look a little closer.

There were 52 open seats, meaning nearly 1/8 of the Congress had no incumbent running. Eighteen of their 54 pickups (literally 1/3) were in open seats. Two more were special elections in Kentucky (death) and Oklahoma (resigned for government job). Sixteen more were incumbents in their first re-election who had voted to raise taxes and four more were elected in 1990 (this is a net total btw). So....38 of the 54 seats the GOP won in 1994 were retirements, open seats, first-time re-elections for new incumbents or second-time re-elections. That's not to say there weren't some blockbusters - like Jack Brooks and Speaker Foley losing - but it was not a case of, "I don't like Bill Clinton, so I'm voting for the Republican." After all, both Mitt Romney and Oliver North lost Senate races that day.

Five of the 8 Senate GOP pickups were retirements of incumbents, including scandal ridden DeConcini (Keating Five - AZ) and some guys in their late 50s or early 60s.

What I'm saying is there ARE TRENDS and they can be point in a certain direction, I just will always question the relationship of "Harris Wofford beat Dick Thornburgh in the 1991 PA Senate special election" leading to "Bill Clinton beat Bush the next year." It's a trend, not a result.

 

[Its On A Slab]

Because of his abrasive style, Trump remains extremely unpopular with suburban women and Virginia has a lot of them in Northern Virginia, the Tidewater, and Richmond suburbs.
Republicans can still win in Virginia, but it takes a pretty big Democrat mis-step for Democrats to lose. Democrats screwed up pretty big in 2021 and then doubled down on it and rode that mistake to defeat. Spanberger ran a relatively clean campaign this year.

Yep. Youngkin had the good fortune of running against an unlikeable Terry McAuliffe. He had way too much connection to HRC. I remember when Hillary was running in 2008. Terry was her campaign manager. He always came across as an insincere slob to me.

Youngkin was able to take advantage of the lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate.

 

[Its On A Slab]

Which tells us all we need to know about Harris. The Dems are insane if they try to push this idiot to the front of the line in 3 years.

Right now, like him or hate him, I'd say that the 2028 Democratic candidacy is Gavin Newsom's to win/lose.

I remember Mario Cuomo's famous quote from 1992, where he said the Democrats could nominate Bozo the Clown and still beat Bush 41.

I have a sneaking suspicion that any clown running against the Republicans in 2028 stands a good chance. Given the circus they have brought to town.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Yep. Youngkin had the good fortune of running against an unlikeable Terry McAuliffe. He had way too much connection to HRC. I remember when Hillary was running in 2008. Terry was her campaign manager. He always came across as an insincere slob to me.

True story: on October 29, 2013, when we had finished the "60 Minutes" interview, Lesley Stahl got up to take pictures with us and opened up her phone.

Then she said, "How did the McAuliffe campaign get my phone number?"

Terry McAuliffe long had one of the most punchable faces in politics. His very appearance is the essence of a slimeball.

 

[Its On A Slab]

True story: on October 29, 2013, when we had finished the "60 Minutes" interview, Lesley Stahl got up to take pictures with us and opened up her phone.

Then she said, "How did the McAuliffe campaign get my phone number?"

Terry McAuliffe long had one of the most punchable faces in politics. His very appearance is the essence of a slimeball.

He reminds me a lot of Serpenthead, James Carville.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I remember Mario Cuomo's famous quote from 1992, where he said the Democrats could nominate Bozo the Clown and still beat Bush 41.

Yes, but Cuomo didn't run, so obviously he didn't believe what he said.

In fact, if that was true, why weren't there dozens of the big names lining up to take on Mr. 91% Approval Rating from the Gulf War? Bradley, Nunn, Bentsen, Rockefeller, Gore - all the big names came up with excuses that translated, "This guy can't lose."

(Cuomo lost me forever as being taken seriously when he actually tried to suggest there was a parallel between him telling a constituent in a private conversation something he'd do but he "lied" and Clinton committing perjury under oath. Given Cuomo himself was a lawyer.....really?)

 

[selmaborntidefan]

He reminds me a lot of Serpenthead, James Carville.

Well, they were good buddies......

Difference is, Carville has street smarts.

 

[Its On A Slab]

Yes, but Cuomo didn't run, so obviously he didn't believe what he said.

In fact, if that was true, why weren't there dozens of the big names lining up to take on Mr. 91% Approval Rating from the Gulf War? Bradley, Nunn, Bentsen, Rockefeller, Gore - all the big names came up with excuses that translated, "This guy can't lose."

(Cuomo lost me forever as being taken seriously when he actually tried to suggest there was a parallel between him telling a constituent in a private conversation something he'd do but he "lied" and Clinton committing perjury under oath. Given Cuomo himself was a lawyer.....really?)

Remember, Serpenthead fed the nation's psyche that "It's The Economy, Stupid". Like Trump did in 2024.....well, the economy was in much better shape in '24 than '92, but we were already into the 3rd QTR(if my memory is correct) of economic expansion. The job numbers just weren't there yet....and I got laid off in the recession of '91.

 

[92tide]

I think that's also a fair point - but I don't know the degree to which we can extrapolate, either.

One thing we have to remember is this: those candidates elected Governor tend to have lived and served in those states for years so OF COURSE their numbers (in theory) should be higher. Plus, there's also the brutal fact of precisely who the opponent is, too. LBJ beat Goldwater by 16 million votes and pointed out to his own folks on the first day of his elected term that 3 million of those he'd already lost because they were only his because of Goldwater.

I've just never thought there was nearly as much to the midterms as the consensus says. That's because I don't think there's a HUGE number of people who go into the booth on one day and say, "This time I'm voting for the Democrat" and then two years later go in and say, "This time I'm voting for the Republican."

Consider the linchpin of that argument, which is 1994. The GOP wiped the floor with the Democrats and took 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats. But look a little closer.

There were 52 open seats, meaning nearly 1/8 of the Congress had no incumbent running. Eighteen of their 54 pickups (literally 1/3) were in open seats. Two more were special elections in Kentucky (death) and Oklahoma (resigned for government job). Sixteen more were incumbents in their first re-election who had voted to raise taxes and four more were elected in 1990 (this is a net total btw). So....38 of the 54 seats the GOP won in 1994 were retirements, open seats, first-time re-elections for new incumbents or second-time re-elections. That's not to say there weren't some blockbusters - like Jack Brooks and Speaker Foley losing - but it was not a case of, "I don't like Bill Clinton, so I'm voting for the Republican." After all, both Mitt Romney and Oliver North lost Senate races that day.

Five of the 8 Senate GOP pickups were retirements of incumbents, including scandal ridden DeConcini (Keating Five - AZ) and some guys in their late 50s or early 60s.

What I'm saying is there ARE TRENDS and they can be point in a certain direction, I just will always question the relationship of "Harris Wofford beat Dick Thornburgh in the 1991 PA Senate special election" leading to "Bill Clinton beat Bush the next year." It's a trend, not a result.

i think the margins from this week’s contests also

Remember, Serpenthead fed the nation's psyche that "It's The Economy, Stupid". Like Trump did in 2024.....well, the economy was in much better shape in '24 than '92, but we were already into the 3rd QTR(if my memory is correct) of economic expansion. The job numbers just weren't there yet....and I got laid off in the recession of '91.

i graduated into the 91 recession. then got to enjoy the .com bust

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Remember, Serpenthead fed the nation's psyche that "It's The Economy, Stupid". Like Trump did in 2024.....well, the economy was in much better shape in '24 than '92, but we were already into the 3rd QTR(if my memory is correct) of economic expansion. The job numbers just weren't there yet....and I got laid off in the recession of '91.

yeah that's the thing.

That's why I've always said, "There's no such monolith as THE ECONOMY." The GDP can be good, inflation can be good - but rising unemployment will destroy you, which is what happened to Bush. Carville deserves credit, though. Daddy Bush made it all worse because he spent a year denying there was a recession ongoing, which made it easier for Clinton to deny there was a recovery occurring.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Biden Mandates Vaccines for Workers, Saying, ‘Our Patience Is Wearing Thin’ (Published 2021)

Initially reluctant to enact mandates, the president is now moving aggressively to require vaccination as the Delta variant races across the country.

www.nytimes.com

What's your point?

That Biden ended the Trump pandemic?
I agree.

Given Trump blaming BIDEN (who was the VP) for the swine flu response., well, consistency demands I blame Trump for the Covid pandemic response, too.

Or is the claim that this was actually Mike Pence not having the courage.....

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Right now, like him or hate him, I'd say that the 2028 Democratic candidacy is Gavin Newsom's to win/lose.

I remember Mario Cuomo's famous quote from 1992, where he said the Democrats could nominate Bozo the Clown and still beat Bush 41.

I have a sneaking suspicion that any clown running against the Republicans in 2028 stands a good chance. Given the circus they have brought to town.

I've pretty much reached the same conclusion. I'd like to think the Dems could do better, but honestly, they really can't. And even if they could, it wouldn't change the fact that voters aren't the most logical creatures on the planet, so it really doesn't matter how strongly candidates stick to the issues.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Well, they were good buddies......

Difference is, Carville has street smarts.

Yeah, Sesame Street smarts.....

 

[Its On A Slab]

Yeah, Sesame Street smarts.....

When I had cable TV, I remember when he and his wife would be on together. She was a former Republican operative, and equally as annoying ot listen to. So glad I'm not availed to that stuff anymore.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

When I had cable TV, I remember when he and his wife would be on together. She was a former Republican operative, and equally as annoying ot listen to. So glad I'm not availed to that stuff anymore.

I've said it before: I'm convinced that Carville watches LSU games while hanging upside down in the rafters like a bat.

 

[75thru79]

I've got a kid at U of MN in Minneapolis. This is the 1st time I've even heard about the mayoral election there.

No way in Hell would I live in the inner-city, but the 'burbs around The Cities are great. Now, St. Paul has some awesome breweries.

I wonder if there are any veterans involved in the "Blackhawk Down" fiasco live in Mogadishu. Oops, I mean Minneapolis