Of course, not every 5* will become a 1st rounder. However, it would have been ~34% (11 on your list for 2023). So, if you’ve signed a 5* then 34% chance then that player would be drafted in the 1st round.
On the other hand, there are ~300(
https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-com-football-team-recruiting-rankings-formula) 4*. 9 were drafted in the 1st round. That is a 3% chance.
For 3*, 8 were drafted in the 1st round in 2023. Out of 500 3* players. That is a 1.6% chance.
So, based on 2023 draft, if you are:
- 5* -> 34% chance to be drafted in the 1st round
- 4* -> 3% chance to be drafted in the 1st round (what is not accounted for here is that top100 had a higher chance)
- 3* -> 1.6% chance to be drafted in the 1st round
So, ratings matter.