Russia Invades Ukraine pt XII

[TIDE-HSV]

There will be a catfight once the Old Man kicks off.
Shoigu, Medvedev, maybe Patrushev (although he is old), Mishustyn, Bortnikov, maybe even Sobyanin.

I think even Prigozhin thinks he has a chance...

 

[Tidewater]

I think even Prigozhin thinks he has a chance...

Probably, but Prigozhin does not have a big support base, at least not a very relevant one.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Probably, but Prigozhin does not have a big support base, at least not a very relevant one.

I've been reading that other oligarchs are gathering up their own mercenary armies. That could be a prologue to civil war...

 

[Padreruf]

I've been reading that other oligarchs are gathering up their own mercenary armies. That could be a prologue to civil war...

What do you see playing out over the next year? Do you think Ukraine can hang on? Is Putin that close to death?

 

[CrimsonJazz]

I've been reading that other oligarchs are gathering up their own mercenary armies. That could be a prologue to civil war...

If this is true, it would definitely shake things up in the short-term. Their long-term outlook remains as bleak as ever. It's not just Russia, either. China, Germany, and Japan are all looking at demographic collapse over the next 10-15 years. If we can prevent a nuclear exchange and wait this out, the future belongs to North America. Even if Russia is completely victorious in Ukraine, their demographic time bomb was accelerated by at least a decade and their economic outlook is that of a third world nation. Their best option is to become subjugated to Chinese hegemony, which is another paper dragon on the precipice of collapse.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

What do you see playing out over the next year? Do you think Ukraine can hang on? Is Putin that close to death?

At our level of support, they can hang on. I don't think they can recover much lost territory. If the Chinese throw in support, that's another story...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

If this is true, it would definitely shake things up in the short-term. Their long-term outlook remains as bleak as ever. It's not just Russia, either. China, Germany, and Japan are all looking at demographic collapse over the next 10-15 years. If we can prevent a nuclear exchange and wait this out, the future belongs to North America. Even if Russia is completely victorious in Ukraine, their demographic time bomb was accelerated by at least a decade and their economic outlook is that of a third world nation. Their best option is to become subjugated to Chinese hegemony, which is another paper dragon on the precipice of collapse.

One thing which is overlooked is that we would be in the same boat as the nations above, except for immigration. Fortunately, people, good people, still want to become Americans. The demographic problem is something ignored by the far right wing. Of course they also ignore climate change, etc...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Here's Cooper's latest installment, in great detail as usual...

TC 2/25/'23

 

[CrimsonJazz]

One thing which is overlooked is that we would be in the same boat as the nations above, except for immigration. Fortunately, people, good people, still want to become Americans. The demographic problem is something ignored by the far right wing. Of course they also ignore climate change, etc...

The problem is HOW we handle immigration. We could bolster our numbers with the best and brightest young immigrants from all over the world if we had the political will to do so, but this is largely not what is happening. I am ALL FOR immigration and I have been saying for a long time that legal immigration should be easier and less expensive. Illegal immigration, OTOH, should be next-to-impossible. I know, I know, that's a political pipe-dream. The Chamber of Commerce Republicans want cheap labor and the Democrats want a reliable voting bloc, so I guess we're stuck with this.

 

[Tidewater]

One thing which is overlooked is that we would be in the same boat as the nations above, except for immigration. Fortunately, people, good people, still want to become Americans. The demographic problem is something ignored by the far right wing. Of course they also ignore climate change, etc...

As my lawyer buddy said, "Show me 1,000 immigrants, and I can show you 1,000 Americans."
Not many people are clamoring to get into Russia.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I've been reading that other oligarchs are gathering up their own mercenary armies. That could be a prologue to civil war...

With both Russia and China facing dire future forecasts, we may we see the balkanization of both countries in the next decade or two...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The problem is HOW we handle immigration. We could bolster our numbers with the best and brightest young immigrants from all over the world if we had the political will to do so, but this is largely not what is happening. I am ALL FOR immigration and I have been saying for a long time that legal immigration should be easier and less expensive. Illegal immigration, OTOH, should be next-to-impossible. I know, I know, that's a political pipe-dream. The Chamber of Commerce Republicans want cheap labor and the Democrats want a reliable voting bloc, so I guess we're stuck with this.

We're in need of grunt labor also, with our present labor shortage. Some jobs Americans just won't do unless desperate (like poultry processing). I recently reroofed. It's a big job with a complex roof line. The entire crew was Hispanic. The project manager can't get Americans to work on roofs when it's in the 90s (or 30s). He's tried, but they wilt and quit. There are many other categories, like in agriculture...

 

[Tidewater]

We're in need of grunt labor also, with our present labor shortage. Some jobs Americans just won't do unless desperate (like poultry processing). I recently reroofed. It's a big job with a complex roof line. The entire crew was Hispanic. The project manager can't get Americans to work on roofs when it's in the 90s (or 30s). He's tried, but they wilt and quit. There are many other categories, like in agriculture...

My only caution to my lawyer friend about immigration is the throughput to assimilation, how quickly and how many non-Americans the country can assimilate. Europe is full of immigrants whom the host country have not assimilated and it breaks out in violence from time to time.
Paris in 2006. Brussels in 2017.
Jill Lepore, an historian I read while studying at Alabama, wrote an interesting article I had been meaning to post here.
A New Americanism
Why a Nation Needs a National Story
I think she is onto something.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

My only caution to my lawyer friend about immigration is the throughput to assimilation, how quickly and how many non-Americans the country can assimilate. Europe is full of immigrants whom the host country have not assimilated and it breaks out in violence from time to time.
Paris in 2006. Brussels in 2017.
Jill Lepore, an historian I read while studying at Alabama, wrote an interesting article I had been meaning to post here.
A New Americanism
Why a Nation Needs a National Story
I think she is onto something.

Nice article and I'm in agreement with it...

 

[CrimsonJazz]

My only caution to my lawyer friend about immigration is the throughput to assimilation, how quickly and how many non-Americans the country can assimilate. Europe is full of immigrants whom the host country have not assimilated and it breaks out in violence from time to time.
Paris in 2006. Brussels in 2017.
Jill Lepore, an historian I read while studying at Alabama, wrote an interesting article I had been meaning to post here.
A New Americanism
Why a Nation Needs a National Story
I think she is onto something.

“We can write history that implicitly denies or ignores the nation-state, but it would be a history that flew in the face of what people who live in a nation-state require and demand,” Degler said that night in Chicago. He issued a warning: “If we historians fail to provide a nationally defined history, others less critical and less informed will take over the job for us.”

Strong statement right off the bat. Good find.

 

[Bamaro]

Looks like we are not ready yet to send any F16's but we really need to begin to start training pilots and support personnel.

 

[Tidewater]

Strong statement right off the bat. Good find.

Lepore is a really good historian. I respect her a lot.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Strong statement right off the bat. Good find.

I honestly think that, rather than F-16s, they need more air defense and be training on attack helicopters. I'm really not sure why they seem so fixated on F-16s...

 

[Tidewater]

I'm really not sure why they seem so fixated on F-16s...

The US Air Attaché in the US Embassy Kyiv is angling for a post-retirement job with General Dynamics?

 

[TexasBama]

I've been reading that other oligarchs are gathering up their own mercenary armies. That could be a prologue to civil war...

I think I’ve seen some of the same articles you have. I believe some of them already had mercenaries, but there’s more being gathered. From their standpoint I’d guess the war is “bad for business”. In The Godfather movies, we know what happened to people that were bad for business.