Bama getting no respect

[B1GTide]

No i didn’t. I was comparing how easy schedules with young talented teams are not easy 12-0 seasons. B1G is a Buckeye fan first so I was trying to give some relation to his team in what I was saying.

Yeah, it was a valid point.

 

[Toddrn]

I'm pulling for Bama to win. FSU, Texas and Oregon to lose. The way the committee has voted I'm afraid that if Oregon won a close one they might just be dumb enough to put Oregon and Washington both in the playoff's.

 

[AlexanderFan]

I still can’t believe Alabama escaped in the Iron Bowl. An absolute debacle.

The fact remains that Alabama could easily have 2 perhaps 3 losses right now.

Ending Georgia’s streak in Atlanta and going to the Fiesta Bowl would be a stellar end to the year.

I personally don’t think Alabama has the horses to pull another 2021 out of their hat. I seriously hope I’m wrong.

The night the Tide lost at home by double digits is precisely when they lost control of their own destiny.

remember, Nick has gone unbeaten only twice. Twice in 17 years…..

You can say the same about Georgia. They could have several losses, including to Auburn.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

While a valid point, this is where context matters.

First, this is why Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, etc... had it so easy because they didn't have an early season test like that. Heck, Oregon also lost but that doesn't count because reasons.

Secondly and this is a very big point in my opinion. Alabama was replacing their OC, their DC, and their QB. What other contender had to play that sort of a game under those circumstances? Things could have gone the other way like they did with Clemson, so while it was a loss and loss counts, it was also under very adverse circumstances.

If I was to put money on it, I would bet that either FSU, Texas, or Michigan would lose. Not on any particular game mind you, but they are all playing top 20 teams. We've seen a lot of upsets on those games in the past.

Also, it's not out of the realm of possibility that margin of victory enter the discussion. The committee did use the word "dominating", so the domination or lack thereof could come into play. If FSU struggles, if Texas struggles, or if somehow Alabama looks great, that could move the needle to. Having said that, it sure sounds like the committee is basically going with every argument they can imagine to keep Alabama out. Head to head matters (but didn't matter when Oklahoma beat Texas). Dominating matters (but not when Alabama dominates).

Edit: Finally, another thing to watch will be the polls. The committee has mostly followed the polls and then tried to justify the move. If Alabama gets moved up ahead of Texas and/or Oregon (things are very tight in the polls, Oregon is closer to Alabama than to the team ahead of them), then watching the committee justify their moves could be interesting.

I wouldn't get my hopes up if I were you about them moving us past either Texas or Oregon (if they beat Wash).

If we beat UGA ALL of the FPI and Eff metrics and Computers would probably favor us over either or both but this committee values 'Eye Test' and Head to Head more than anything.

I mean honestly they are just a 3rd Human Poll at this point and don't seem to be putting much weight if any in the Data part of the resumes.

Plus they LOVE the PAC so Oregon could beat Wash by 1 point and to them would be as good or better than us beating UGA by 10+ points.

Texas could also win over Mullet by 1 point and stay ahead because they've made it 100% clear we will not jump them unless they lose.

We won't jump FSU either if they are 13-0

Either Texas or FSU loses or we are kept out even if we beat UGA by 40 points.

 

[Cruloc]

Texas will have blown out Okie State by the time our game starts. Unless they just completely lay an egg and have multiple catastrophic turnovers, Texas will destroy them.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Texas will have blown out Okie State by the time our game starts. Unless they just completely lay an egg and have multiple catastrophic turnovers, Texas will destroy them.

It's hard to say for sure because Okie State has won 7 of the last 8 with wins over Kansas, Kansas St, and even OU (who beat Texas) but that loss was a DRUBBING from 6-6 UCF.

Texas has had some struggle wins lately against Houston, Kansas St (In OT) and TCU.

It's all about which Texas shows up and which Okie State shows up.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I don't recall these excuses about early losses shouldn't count in September when we played and pole-axed:

2008 - Clemson
2009 - Va Tech
2010 - Penn St
2011 - Penn St
2012 - Michigan
2013 - Va Tech
2014 - WVA
2015 - Wisconsin
2016 - USC
2017 - FSU
2018 - Louisville
2021 - Miami
2022 - Texas

Most of those years we lost at least one coordinator, sometimes several coaches - and tons of NFL draft picks.

So can we drop the excuse of "we weren't ready to play in September because whatever?"
And it's twin, "If Georgia had to play anybody, they'd lose."

In September, Georgia has played:
Notre Dame (2017, 2019)
Clemson (2021)
Oregon (2022)

They were asked to drop Oklahoma this year as has been noted.

The complaint about Oregon is legit. I can concur on that point.

But if we're going the "Bama gets no respect" route, we need to demonstrate it, too.




And they've beaten them all.

 

[rtr90]

Erratic play by Bama has been their downfall this year

 

[VirginiaTide57]

FSU has to lose. Only way in.

No, Bama has to beat GA. Then let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Cruloc]

No, Bama has to beat GA. Then let the chips fall where they may.

Both us winning and FSU losing has to happen.

 

[GrayTide]

Just beat Georgia

I know this is a discussion site, but "Just Beat Georgia" succinctly says what 1040 posts have been complaining about. No amount of discussion on this site is going to sway the CFP Committee.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Both us winning and FSU losing has to happen.

Or Texas losing... which could happen.

 

[KrAzY3]

I don't recall these excuses about early losses shouldn't count in September when we played and pole-axed:

Just for the record, that's not the argument I'm making. I haven't argued Alabama should pass up any undefeated team.

My argument this entire time has been based almost entirely on the absolutely absurd notion that Alabama is one of the worst one loss teams. It never made any sense and now Alabama sits as the lowest ranked one loss power 5 team, and that's ridiculous.

Once you get past the fact that Ohio State, Texas, and Oregon all also lost, then you should start dissecting the nature of those losses. That's where Alabama having a new QB, OC, and DC and losing in only their second game really is quite relevant. Alabama is on a 10 game winning streak, during that streak they beat Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU, all by the fabled "double digits". They're clearly one of the top teams in the country.

But somehow the argument being made is that Alabama is in fact the worst one loss contender and that's just dumb.

 

[B1GTide]

I know this is a discussion site, but "Just Beat Georgia" succinctly says what 1040 posts have been complaining about. No amount of discussion on this site is going to sway the CFP Committee.

My point is that it is the only thing that you control

 

[Cruloc]

Or Texas losing... which could happen.

I really figured Florida would beat FSU. Really thought Texas would lose one of those close ones, especially Kansas State.

Sure, Okie State could, maybe, possibly have a day and beat Texas. But the matchups are terrible for them vs Texas. Only advantage they have is their RB, but Texas has a good run D.

Likelihood, in my opinion, for upsets in power 5 championship games:

1. Louisville over FSU....most likely, FSU only favored by 2.5

2. Bama over Georgia....possible, Georgia will probably be a touchdown favorite by game time.

3. Washington over Oregon....maybe, they beat them once already, Oregon is a 9.5 point favorite.

4. Okie State over Texas....highly unlikely, Texas is a 14.5 favorite, Okie State is schizophrenic at best.

5. Iowa over Michigan....extremely, highly unlikely. Michigan is a 23 point favorite, Iowa has a TE playing QB from what I saw vs Nebraska. Iowa will be lucky not to get shutout.

I'm hoping Bama wins and hoping Louisville wins. Only FSU fans want to see FSU in the playoffs.

If those two wins happen, I'd still bet this committee would put either Ohio State or Georgia at 4. Knowing this is the last 4 team playoff, they'll do whatever they want.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I dig bro. But what are we now compared to then? Proven?

I believe Bama looks better than Texas. But what I believe doesn't matter.

Saban didn't have the team prepared and they lost. Now it's out of Bama's hands.

Wanna be mad? Be mad at why there's a debate.

 

[RollTideMo]

I subscribe to The Athletic and read an article from Stewart Mandel who laid out the 16 possible scenarios for CFP final 4. In all 8 scenarios in which has Bama beating Georgia, he's got them in the playoffs no matter the outcome of the other conference championship games. There was one scenario with Bama and Georgia entering the playoffs and it involves Bama, Oregon, Louisville and Okie State winning the games, leaving Ohio State in #5.

 

[Cruloc]

I'd love for chaos, utter chaos to happen this weekend. Make this committee look like the fools they are, have Boo trying to spin all their silly arguments to Rece.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Swap quarterbacks, does Bama win? Third game starting versus a full year.

Excuses.

You wanna go down this rabbit hole? Bama has a more talented roster and had plenty of time to develop Milroe, but Saban chose not to (as he always does) and in some cases couldn't put Milroe in more games last year because Saban had chosen poor coordinators - and stuck with Gol*ing long after it was obvious he was a liability.

This Bama squad is among the most talented in all of CFB history - if you cannot have them ready to breathe fire, that's 100% on the coaches.

I don't care about excuses and what-ifs. I care about the highest paid coach in CFB - widely recognized as the GOAT - who hasn't had Bama playing to their own standard for several years now.

Am I asking for Saban's job? Heck no. But he doesn't get a pass for doing a poor job just because he's the GOAT. People are scrambling to blame anyone and everyone under the sun but few seem to be looking at Saban, despite the fact it's 100% on his shoulders.

It is what it is.

 

[crimsonaudio]

New QB, two new coordinators. New LT. Against a veteran team who schemed for 9 months. I’m willing to give a bit of a pass.

Meh.

I'm not.

And apparently neither is the committee.