Yep. They are VERY different. There's just as much risk (maybe statistically even more risks) in Tua coming out and not being a top 15-20 pick than him staying and getting hurt again at Alabama. That's how unpredictable draft day is, especially the first round. There's a lot of emotions and adrenaline on Day 1. Teams get antsy, make knee jerk decisions or go real conservative and make the "safe pick" rather than the "not so safe pick" that they originally had planned to pick. A healthy Aaron Rodgers plummeting to the 24th pick is all you need to know about the unpredictability of the draft. If I'm remembering correctly, he and Alex Smith were supposed to be taken immediately off the board within the top 5 picks, at worst top 10. Draft grades don't mean squat come the day of the draft. Aaron Rodgers is only one example of players who had high pre-draft grade rankings then fell way below them the day of the draft.