Have EVs Reached A Short-Term Peak?
- Thread starter 4Q Basket Case
- Start date
Man, throw some saddle bags on there and you have a nice little grocery-getter!
I liked it because it's relatively light. The only bug in the ointment is that their ad said their "carry package" was free. I didn't examine the invoice carefully enough and they'd charged me $99 for it. When I tried to return it, I got a form email saying no returns. I wouldn't be able to use Bazza's. I had to get a "step-through" model. My left hip is arthritic and my right hip needs replacement - again. It makes swinging up over the saddle a real chore...
That's the least expensive e-bike I've ever seen. Most I've looked at cost several thousand. Very interesting.
I've been interested in these for a while. I have solar panels on my house so I wouldn't pay extra to charge it. I produce more than I use by a decent amount on a sunny day. I'm a little too far from work to ride it to the office. It's a more rural area and we are just spread out, and the south Florda sun in the summer would be tough on the commute.
Check out the one Bazza posted- $670!
I haven't looked for an e-bike since I bought my bike. Prices seem to have come way down, but I bought mine during the pandemic. Both Bazza's and Earle's bikes are very nice looking in the pictures.
I paid more for my 12 speed than either of these bikes cost. Pedaling it up a hill and becoming exhausted is when I realized my health wasn't as good as it should be because I had been riding daily, and rather than getting in better shape, I kept getting more and more winded.
Thanks for the link.
Bazz, how much does yours weigh? It's not even on their website. My tires are fat enough that I could travel on a manicured trail, of which there are several next to me in the state park. With that suspension and tires that fat, your bike should be up for any trail. To get mine back up to the shop, its home, I have a fairly steep little graveled rise. I went for the lightweight, just in case I have to push it up...
Edit: Found it - 99.2 lb...
Yep...that's it. Earle's at 46 lbs. is almost half the weight!
Mine has cast wheels which have to add more weight but will hold up better to the salt air here, I think.
Oh and mine was $670 but there's also a $100 shipping cost so you're looking at $770. total plus sales tax, of course.
The first e-bike I bought was $999 and that included shipping and there was no sales tax charged. They also were giving a $99 "goodies" package with them so I got that too. I still have that one and it still works great. And also the second one I bought, I posted about a page or so back...
These things are amazing....they really are!
Whether 83 or 99, neither would be fun to push uphill through loose gravel. Lectric didn't charge shipping or sales tax, so the bikes are essentially the same cost. Now, if the weather would give a few more sunny days...
An article from yesterday's WSJ:
The Six Months That Short-Circuited the Electric-Vehicle Revolution - WSJ
If you don't have a subscription, it'll be paywalled. It's about 3/4 of a full page, so here's a summary:
Ford and GM, and to a lesser extent Tesla, significantly over-projected actual market growth. They were building plants for expected demand that didn't materialize. Doesn't mean the market for EVs is shrinking...just that it isn't expanding nearly as fast as needed to justify the planned expansion.
Ford is now cutting Lightning production by 50% and relocating workers. In 2023, they lost $4.7 Billion on EVs and project to lose $5 - $5.5 Billion for 2024. Meanwhile, they're expanding their hybrid production.
The worm turned in the summer of 2023.
EVs as a share of vehicle sales (not sure if that's unit count or dollar volume) peaked in the summer of 2023 at a bit over 9%. By the end of the year, it was about 7.75%. Dealers are cutting prices and occasionally selling at a loss to clear the inventory.
Average retail transaction for EVs peaked in early 2023 at just under $60K and is now down to right at $50K. Meanwhile, ICEs have been pretty consistently right around $45K since 2022. Hybrids have been a tad more volatile, but have held between $41K and $44K through calendar 2023.
It's in days inventory where the slowing growth rate caused the increased production to run a-cropper.
In mid-2022, average inventory days on hand (AIDOH) for EVs was about 20 days, and there were often waiting lists -- i.e., the cars were sold before they got to the dealer. In the summer of 2023, AIDOH had spiked to about 90 days and at the end of 2023 sat at about 75 days.
Meanwhile, ICE inventory sits at about 50 days and hybrids at a bit over 25.
So in the days when the manufacturer was shipping 2-3 vehicles a month, the dealers could move them quickly. When they ship 12 in a month, that no longer holds.
Meanwhile, EV-cautious manufacturers (like Toyota) are sitting pretty, maintaining their advocacy of hybrid technology as a consumer-friendly way to reduce carbon emissions.
Reasons have been discussed here previously:
- Early adopters have already bought. The second wave is a lot more dubious because:
- EVs are averaging about $5K - $7K more expensive than ICEs, even after the recent price reductions. Before that, the difference was more like $14K.
- The old bugaboo range anxiety, exacerbated by...
- Reports that real-world range is usually less than claimed, and…
- The reminder that, for a variety of reasons, range is even lower when it's really cold or hot.
- Anxiety about finding a working charger.
- If you do find one (even a super-charger), it takes a long time to re-charge.
Not in the article, but a factor that I've heard discussed amongst my friends and family is that manufacturers and dealers squandered goodwill by jacking up prices when demand was high. Ask anyone who ordered a Tesla pickup how that worked....even after said customer put down a deposit.
The EV market is increasing. Just not nearly quickly enough to justify the formerly-planned expansion of production capacity. And manufacturers have to see a path to profit before they'll tolerate upfront losses.
EV technology will get there. Eventually. Probably not in my lifetime. Given the state of current technology, hybrids are the best alternative.
The Six Months That Short-Circuited the Electric-Vehicle Revolution - WSJ
If you don't have a subscription, it'll be paywalled. It's about 3/4 of a full page, so here's a summary:
Ford and GM, and to a lesser extent Tesla, significantly over-projected actual market growth. They were building plants for expected demand that didn't materialize. Doesn't mean the market for EVs is shrinking...just that it isn't expanding nearly as fast as needed to justify the planned expansion.
Ford is now cutting Lightning production by 50% and relocating workers. In 2023, they lost $4.7 Billion on EVs and project to lose $5 - $5.5 Billion for 2024. Meanwhile, they're expanding their hybrid production.
The worm turned in the summer of 2023.
EVs as a share of vehicle sales (not sure if that's unit count or dollar volume) peaked in the summer of 2023 at a bit over 9%. By the end of the year, it was about 7.75%. Dealers are cutting prices and occasionally selling at a loss to clear the inventory.
Average retail transaction for EVs peaked in early 2023 at just under $60K and is now down to right at $50K. Meanwhile, ICEs have been pretty consistently right around $45K since 2022. Hybrids have been a tad more volatile, but have held between $41K and $44K through calendar 2023.
It's in days inventory where the slowing growth rate caused the increased production to run a-cropper.
In mid-2022, average inventory days on hand (AIDOH) for EVs was about 20 days, and there were often waiting lists -- i.e., the cars were sold before they got to the dealer. In the summer of 2023, AIDOH had spiked to about 90 days and at the end of 2023 sat at about 75 days.
Meanwhile, ICE inventory sits at about 50 days and hybrids at a bit over 25.
So in the days when the manufacturer was shipping 2-3 vehicles a month, the dealers could move them quickly. When they ship 12 in a month, that no longer holds.
Meanwhile, EV-cautious manufacturers (like Toyota) are sitting pretty, maintaining their advocacy of hybrid technology as a consumer-friendly way to reduce carbon emissions.
Reasons have been discussed here previously:
- Early adopters have already bought. The second wave is a lot more dubious because:
- EVs are averaging about $5K - $7K more expensive than ICEs, even after the recent price reductions. Before that, the difference was more like $14K.
- The old bugaboo range anxiety, exacerbated by...
- Reports that real-world range is usually less than claimed, and…
- The reminder that, for a variety of reasons, range is even lower when it's really cold or hot.
- Anxiety about finding a working charger.
- If you do find one (even a super-charger), it takes a long time to re-charge.
Not in the article, but a factor that I've heard discussed amongst my friends and family is that manufacturers and dealers squandered goodwill by jacking up prices when demand was high. Ask anyone who ordered a Tesla pickup how that worked....even after said customer put down a deposit.
The EV market is increasing. Just not nearly quickly enough to justify the formerly-planned expansion of production capacity. And manufacturers have to see a path to profit before they'll tolerate upfront losses.
EV technology will get there. Eventually. Probably not in my lifetime. Given the state of current technology, hybrids are the best alternative.
Last edited:
I think you're right. Today's customers are early adopters. They are the ones helping work out all the early kinks and problems. It will come to be routine, although it's not the long-term answer to the ICE problem...
guess this could go here or in the musk thread
www.cbsnews.com
Tesla Cybertruck owners complain their new vehicles are rusting
The EV's stainless-steel exterior is seemingly incompatible with common outdoor elements, some owners say.
www.cbsnews.com
guess this could go here or in the musk thread
Tesla Cybertruck owners complain their new vehicles are rusting
The EV's stainless-steel exterior is seemingly incompatible with common outdoor elements, some owners say.
You're just out to take Musk down.
My first thought was galvanic corrosion, since half the vehicle is a battery. But stainless steel isn’t very anodic, unless they added something to the alloy to make it more formable.guess this could go here or in the musk thread
Tesla Cybertruck owners complain their new vehicles are rusting
The EV's stainless-steel exterior is seemingly incompatible with common outdoor elements, some owners say.
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