Kirby Smart: SEC may secede from NCAA

[JDCrimson]

A Big10 Expansion to 32 teams would probably look like...

Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Colorado
Utah
BYU
Washington State
Oregon State
California
Stanford
Arizona
Arizona State

I expect Notre Dame would remain independent.

65 teams who are in the top revenue generating programs. Rivalries restored.

12 game schedule, 9 conference games, 3 NCAA group of 5 games. 16 game inter-conference playoff btw SEC and Big10.

 

[arthurdawg]

That's a good way to kill off the SEC.

Sankey has been outmaneuvered by the Big Ten at almost every step of the way during his tenure as SEC commissioner. They hold the power right now and without the Big Ten breaking away as well, this will not work.

This. Sankey has been a nearly unmitigated disaster!

 

[Evil Crimson Dragon]

I didn’t read the article, but the SEC probably should’ve broken away 5–8 years ago and created a super conference when they still had leverage. Threatening to break away from the NCAA now just feels like an attempt to put a bandage on an already broken system.

They should have listened when Coach Bryant proposed the CFA

 

[Slowpoke Catracho]

Wow. Pretty strong comments if ya ask me. Though personally I'm not sure if the SEC honestly is a strong enough national brand of a conference to be able to go it alone without the NCAA. But good for discussing

With expansion argument brewing, Smart hints at SEC secession

Conversations around conference expansion have dominated the college football spring meetings thus far, and Kirby Smart's comments on Tuesday about the SEC essentially seceding if an agreement can't be reached have created plenty of questions.

www.espn.com

The SEC can't do it alone. If the "New" SEC league puts new NIL rules/limits then they will not be able to compete in recruiting with a $$$ limitless league that exists right now. It's all about the Benjamins!

 

[BamaInBham]

This. Sankey has been a nearly an unmitigated disaster! (FIFY)

Very true. From the TV deals to the 9 game schedule. He needs to be replaced, then the SEC needs to revert to the 8 game schedule.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Goodman: The SEC’s plan to break away from the NCAA

Here's how it starts.

www.al.com

 

[arthurdawg]

Very true. From the TV deals to the 9 game schedule. He needs to be replaced, then the SEC needs to revert to the 8 game schedule.

For some reason I was trying to be nice! Hahaha!

 

[bamaga]

I felt the way many of you did when I first heard this. It reeked of not competing and taking our ball and going home.
But, then I thought of the TV ratings. Some mentioned limiting NIL and the Portal would be a death sentence to the new SEC, but would it? How long could the Big10+ 22 keep paying high NIL dollars if there was little TV market outside of Ohio. Especially if the SEC added the best markets in the ACC. Eventually the media rights would slow to a trickle outside of the SEC footprint. A large portion of the country treats CFB like an afterthought, It’s a religion in the SEC. How else can you explain the top TV market for the nations second most popular sport by viewership is not even a top 50 media market. 8 of the 10 largest CFB media markets are in the SEC footprint. And Birmingham dominates TV viewership year after year after year… -

To wit-

 

[AlexanderFan]

I felt the way many of you did when I first heard this. It reeked of not competing and taking our ball and going home.
But, then I thought of the TV ratings. Some mentioned limiting NIL and the Portal would be a death sentence to the new SEC, but would it? How long could the Big10+ 22 keep paying high NIL dollars if there was little TV market outside of Ohio. Especially if the SEC added the best markets in the ACC. Eventually the media rights would slow to a trickle outside of the SEC footprint. A large portion of the country treats CFB like an afterthought, It’s a religion in the SEC. How else can you explain the top TV market for the nations second most popular sport by viewership is not even a top 50 media market. 8 of the 10 largest CFB media markets are in the SEC footprint. And Birmingham dominates TV viewership year after year after year… -

To wit-
View attachment 57434

Would networks pay the bucks for the USFL when the NFL is there as well?

You could theoretically lose the top 75 high school players, the top 200 transfer prospects, and the JUCO big boys if the SEC secedes and applies a more strict NIL framework. Over a few years the talent level would lower, even faster than it is now.

Everybody jumps off the Titanic, or nobody does.

 

[bamaga]

Would networks pay the bucks for the USFL when the NFL is there as well?

You could theoretically lose the top 75 high school players, the top 200 transfer prospects, and the JUCO big boys if the SEC secedes and applies a more strict NIL framework. Over a few years the talent level would lower, even faster than it is now.

Everybody jumps off the Titanic, or nobody does.

Wow, terrible argument IMO , you are comparing a startup vs the nfl to a league with a century of fanatical fans vs a largely apathetic rest of the country. Not to mention the largest and deepest recruiting base in CFB. College football by and large cannot lose the Southeast as a base. If nothing else, The SEC has that Trump card.

 

[LeBron47]

The top 75 high schoolers and top 200 transfers all have one goal… playing in the NFL… where do most of the top players come from in the first round… SEC. From 2000-2025 First Rounders by conference SEC 235 Big Ten 144… SEC/ACC 357 Big Ten/Big 12 244…

 

[Slowpoke Catracho]

The top 75 high schoolers and top 200 transfers all have one goal… playing in the NFL… where do most of the top players come from in the first round… SEC. From 2000-2025 First Rounders by conference SEC 235 Big Ten 144… SEC/ACC 357 Big Ten/Big 12 244…

That would drag them out of the greater "nationwide" TV audience for exposure though. Who would watch a virtual "SEC Championship/National Champion" over a "National Championship" broadcast all over the nation?

 

[AlexanderFan]

Wow, terrible argument IMO , you are comparing a startup vs the nfl to a league with a century of fanatical fans vs a largely apathetic rest of the country. Not to mention the largest and deepest recruiting base in CFB. College football by and large cannot lose the Southeast as a base. If nothing else, The SEC has that Trump card.

Money talks, and the big ten is spending it like there’s no tomorrow and gobbling up guys from the South. The SEC is losing ground slowly, but if a tighter NIL framework was applied the exodus of talent would be faster. You would be asking players to take pay cuts to stay closer to home, I don’t think that would go over very well.

You’re gambling on the tv contracts staying the same when the SEC wouldn’t be taking part in the playoffs and wouldn’t have a claim to a legitimate national title in the eyes of the sports world. Corporate sponsors might also leave, or at least reduce their funding for the SEC schools. Your plan would also open the door for the Texas teams to exert more demand because of their inflated budgets.

Not to mention if the conference failed and had to come back to the NCAA, what kind of concessions would have to be made?

 

[AlexanderFan]

Wow, terrible argument IMO , you are comparing a startup vs the nfl to a league with a century of fanatical fans vs a largely apathetic rest of the country. Not to mention the largest and deepest recruiting base in CFB. College football by and large cannot lose the Southeast as a base. If nothing else, The SEC has that Trump card.

How many national championships has that deepest recruiting base gotten in the last three years? How many Southern players on those national championship teams?

 

[Slowpoke Catracho]

The only way the SEC could survive would be to expand and take the whole state of Texas schools and Florida and some of schools in the West. The demographics simply don't support the argument fiancially for survival.

 

[AlexanderFan]

The top 75 high schoolers and top 200 transfers all have one goal… playing in the NFL… where do most of the top players come from in the first round… SEC. From 2000-2025 First Rounders by conference SEC 235 Big Ten 144… SEC/ACC 357 Big Ten/Big 12 244…

Do the years since NIL became prevalent.

I pulled up 2025-2026 first round and it’s 22-21 in favor of the SEC.

If you go back to 2022 it’s 57-45 in favor of the SEC.

SEC versus B10 first round picks.
+5 +0 +6 +4 -3

Could be natural deviation, who knows

 

[KrAzY3]

I've spent a lot of time following college football conference realignment over the years, which meant paying attention to things like attendance, endowments, athletic department revenues, state population, TV ratings, etc...

The SEC has no real path forward to leave the NCAA by themselves. That's important to understand. They have two really good targets to expand their territory, and then things fade fast to the point of losing money for each addition. There is no geographical power grab for the taking with the SEC.

This means that you need a partner to leave the NCAA, otherwise you're turning yourself into a far less relevant regional player. The Big 10 actually has far more expansion targets if they wanted to go at it alone, but they would quickly be faced with the same reality of losing money for each addition they make to cover more of the map.

Even if the SEC and Big 10 were to leave together, they create another problem where there's a giant chunk of the country and a lot of nationally relevant brands left out. This means they can't even have a 32 team basketball playoff, they can't have a 16 team college football playoff, they're not in an ideal situation. There's basically 4-6 teams that are good targets for the SEC and Big 10 combined, and that just won't cut it.

The only realistic path towards a breakaway actually involved the Big 12. The Big 12 holds important territory that neither the SEC nor the Big 10 want (for instance the block of Kansas, Arizona, Colorado and Utah). They could also absorb the remaining relevant ACC schools neither conference wanted (like Louisville, Duke, etc...). This is also relevant when you consider this break-away would still need some sort of legal cover/congressional action, without having most of the country on board they'd never get beneficial legislation passed nationally.

The reason this would work is TV deals. Yes, the SEC and Big 10 would have to share post-season revenue with the Big 12 in this scenario, but their TV deals are not diluted by adding a lot of teams that in fact cost schools money to add. So, basically this is the only way I can see that the Big 10 and the SEC actually break away from the NCAA but also gain money instead of lose money.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

Very true. From the TV deals to the 9 game schedule. He needs to be replaced, then the SEC needs to revert to the 8 game schedule.

I don't see the SEC going back to a 8 conference game schedule.If other teams we play all play 8 conference games. MAYBE... BUT THATS THE ONLY WAY.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

I did a quick AI search on conference revenue, the SEC could actually expand to 32 teams and it would likely expand the revenue per team from $68m per year to something north of $72m. I think the break away becomes even more valuable because you capture a good bit of the NCAA basketball tournament value. Baseball and softball possibly become more valuable in a 32 team conference.

Not the craziest idea afterall...

Whats more in theory you have minimized anti-trust issues because a student athlete could play under the roster rules of the NCAA, Big10, or SEC. Then you can re-install some actual rules in all this mess.

Sorry, but I don't see how you could realistically get those kind of numbers numbers...

 

[davefrat]

Do the states in the SEC really need to further alienate themselves from modernity?