Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

[some_al_fan]

A perennial question. I can tell you, knowing very little about the two units, that a Ranger Battalion, and a National Guard infantry battalion are not going to be equal in a battle. Both are volunteer units (you have to volunteer to get in), but they will have wildly disparate combat effectiveness.

There are some objective qualifiers (physical fitness test scores, rifle marksmanship scores, but generally, it is the intangibles, the strength of will to resist, will to win. In the film Gettysburg, Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain tells his men, "Today, we are going to have to be stubborn." That hints at the existence of some intangible quality.

Russia currently has something that nobody else in the world has - “cheap” infantry. In theory, China, India, and other populous countries might have it as well, but it has not been battle-tested yet.
In your examples, you are comparing infantry battalions of the same size; however, Russia might have the potential to mobilize and send more people to the fighting than the West. Yes, I know that EU's population is approximately three times that of Russia, but Europe is most likely unable to mobilize the vast majority of them.

If they understand what is at stake, sure. Estonians and Lithuanians especially so. They know that if they get overrun again, Estonia as a nationality might be completely wiped out this time. I would expect Estonians to fight like Spartans against a Russian invasion.

Estonia / Latvia / Lithuania have two issues:
- small armies
- a small amount of land that won’t allow them to buy time and mobilize

Not in the current state, but given a few years to recover after the Ukrainian war (and assuming a “win” for Putin), I am afraid that Russian forces could overrun one or two Baltic countries before the rest of NATO armies could arrive for help.

 

[Tidewater]

Russia currently has something that nobody else in the world has - “cheap” infantry. In theory, China, India, and other populous countries might have it as well, but it has not been battle-tested yet.
In your examples, you are comparing infantry battalions of the same size; however, Russia might have the potential to mobilize and send more people to the fighting than the West. Yes, I know that EU's population is approximately three times that of Russia, but Europe is most likely unable to mobilize the vast majority of them.

Russia might be marginally better at scraping up personnel than western nations, but the population disparity is pretty stark. The question with western populations would be prying the game controller and the weed pipe out of young people's hands and convincing them that their country is worth sticking their neck out for.
The Russian operational concept has already adapted to untrained and unmotivated soldiers. (The Kremlin does not care if they die in massive numbers).

Estonia / Latvia / Lithuania have two issues:
- small armies
- a small amount of land that won’t allow them to buy time and mobilize

Fair point. in 2015, RAND did a wargame which demonstrated that Russia, from a "cold start" (i.e. no pre-conflict build up of forces but launching an invasion from where Russian forces were based at the time). Russians forces could get to the outskirts of Tallinn and Riga before NATO could react. Seize all or some of Tallinn and Riga and dare NATO to respond.

Not in the current state, but given a few years to recover after the Ukrainian war (and assuming a “win” for Putin), I am afraid that Russian forces could overrun one or two Baltic countries before the rest of NATO armies could arrive for help.

The RAND study was the impetus of NATO Enhanced Forward Presence deployments in 2017 which placed multinational battalion battle groups in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland,


since expanded to include Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria.


Assuming Russia "wins" in Ukraine and goes back to antebellum basing, they would have the same forces, but NATO is on a better readiness posture and the Baltic States have organized and trained their military auxiliary forces that will either assist the regular army or go to ground and resist Russian occupation from behind Russian lines.
Bottom line, NATO is probably in a better position now to resist a Russian invasion than it was ten years ago.

 

[Its On A Slab]

In Berlin today, you can tell where the Wall used to be. All the architecture east of it is new (built after 1991).
The last rubble was removed from East Berlin in 1977.

We met up with a Polish expat friend before we booked our tickets to Europe. I mentioned that Warsaw and he said Warsaw was almost completely destroyed after WW2.....Krakau was the place to see since it was spared a good bit. I didn't we Warsaw, but Krakau was a lovely city. Almost as scenic as Prague.

 

[arthurdawg]

We spent a week in Prague a couple of years back. Had a lovely time! We mainly just walked the city and stopped for coffee as needed for a break. We hired a private driver who took us around and outside to some of the outlying areas as well.

 

[Tidewater]

We met up with a Polish expat friend before we booked our tickets to Europe. I mentioned that Warsaw and he said Warsaw was almost completely destroyed after WW2.....Krakau was the place to see since it was spared a good bit. I didn't we Warsaw, but Krakau was a lovely city. Almost as scenic as Prague.

I've been to Krakow several times and like it a lot. I also like working with Poles. I find them professional and competent and they also know when to have a laugh.
Of course, during my first visit, I went to Auschwitz to pay my respects. A very sad somber place.

 

[Its On A Slab]

I've been to Krakow several times and like it a lot. I also like working with Poles. I find them professional and competent and they also know when to have a laugh.
Of course, during my first visit, I went to Auschwitz to pay my respects. A very sad somber place.

We spent a day @ Auschwitz. I don't think it's possible to tour that place without feeling it in your gut. Although I wanted to slap a group of German teens who were laughing and being quite merry.

The surreal thing about Aushwitz is that, despite the horrors that occurred there, everything outside the camp was sunny, pleasant. Bike trails, smiling people. There is even a huge theme park within minutes from it. I almost got the impression that Austria had moved on, and just kept the place open for tourists.

We watched Zone Of Interest a few weeks after we got back. And I remembered the tour guide pointing out Höss's house adjacent to the camp when we were there.

Auschwitz May 2024 · Wednesday, May 1, 2024 📸

Shared album · Tap to view!

photos.app.goo.gl

 

[arthurdawg]

Our driver in Prague does a trip to Auschwitz, but he suggested we wait because it is 18 hours! A very long day.

My daughter went there in the spring, very moving.

 

[Tidewater]

Our driver in Prague does a trip to Auschwitz, but he suggested we wait because it is 18 hours! A very long day.

My daughter went there in the spring, very moving.

I went in the spring. Just a monumentally sad experience.

At the entrance, there is a sign telling visitors that bikinis are not allowed in Auschwitz and neither is playing guitar and singing.
Sadly, I am sure that this sign is there because somebody (amazingly) tried to do just that.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I haven't been to Auschwitz, but did go to Dachau in May of 2024. I can't say it's enjoyable, but it is time well spent. Everyone should see it first-hand.

It's one thing to hear the phrase, "Death on an industrial scale." It's entirely another to actually walk down the production line.

From the point where the victims entered the building to the point that the ashes were hauled away is maybe a couple hundred feet. Might be less. The victims progressed from one room to the next, the floorplan being a lot like a really big New Orleans shotgun house.

Entry room, disrobing room, "shower room" (gas chamber), prep room (where they pulled out all gold teeth and anything else of value), crematory, trash bin.

I asked how long it took to go from entering the building to literally being hauled off in a cart of ashes. I was told it took about 45 minutes. Sometimes less.

Interesting side point. Dachau the camp is on the outskirts of Dachau the city. It started out as a model to the world of how the Nazis were going to treat Jews. No secret. No way for townspeople to deny knowledge. Initially, it was billed as something like summer camp. Obviously, that didn't last.

After the war, the townspeople had a big debate as to whether to change the name of the city. For reasons I don't understand, they stayed with the old name.

German car tags have the name of the city in which the car is registered. Even today, a lot of the citizenry have their cars registered elsewhere to avoid having "Dachau" on their tag. Same with birth records. A lot of parents go to another city to give birth...so the name Dachau isn't on the birth certificate.

 

[Tidewater]

The Center for a New American Security (DC think-tank) has produced a paper on countering the drone threat.
COUNTERING THE SWARM: Protecting the Joint Force in the Drone Age
As an aside, one thing that struck me and is an indicator at how lethargic the Pentagon is, it mentions that Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) is still in existence. Now, in 2005, such an organization was needed, because mines and roadside bombs were killing a lot of soldiers. The organization largely accomplished its mission, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ended, but the JIEDDO lives on, long after it was no longer needed, sucking up resources (money and manpower, especially).
Hopefully somebody over there deactivates that unit. Not because they are bad people, but their services in this organization are no longer needed. Those people can go on to other assignments and tackle other tasks.
At any rate, the report is interesting and current.

 

[arthurdawg]

I haven't been to Auschwitz, but did go to Dachau in May of 2024. I can't say it's enjoyable, but it is time well spent. Everyone should see it first-hand.

It's one thing to hear the phrase, "Death on an industrial scale." It's entirely another to actually walk down the assembly line.

From the point where the victims entered the building to the point that the ashes were hauled away is maybe a couple hundred feet. Might be less. The victims progressed from one room to the next, the floorplan being a lot like a really big New Orleans shotgun house.

Entry room, disrobing room, "shower room" (gas chamber), prep room (where they pulled out all gold teeth and anything else of value), crematory, trash bin.

I asked how long it took to go from entering the building to literally being hauled off in a cart of ashes. I was told it took about 45 minutes. Sometimes less.

Interesting side point. Dachau the camp is on the outskirts of Dachau the city. It started out as a model to the world of how the Nazis were going to treat Jews. No secret. No way for townspeople to deny knowledge. Initially, it was billed as something like summer camp. Obviously, that didn't last.

After the war, the townspeople had a big debate as to whether to change the name of the city. For reasons I don't understand, they stayed with the old name.

German car tags have the name of the city in which the car is registered. Even today, a lot of the citizenry have their cars registered elsewhere to avoid having "Dachau" on their tag. Same with birth records. A lot of parents go to another city to give birth...so the name Dachau isn't on the birth certificate.

The Germans seem to have generally had a pretty good perspective on what they did in WW II in many respects. Not always, but more so than many.

We went to Terezin when we were in Prague. It wasn't a death camp, but a transportation camp. None the less, thousands still died from disease, malnutrition, and brutal conditions. It was also the facility where Gavrilo Princip was held until his death from malnutrition and TB in 1918. I was very surprised to find out that he wasn't tossed up against a convenient wall and shot!

 

[Its On A Slab]

The Germans seem to have generally had a pretty good perspective on what they did in WW II in many respects. Not always, but more so than many.

We went to Terezin when we were in Prague. It wasn't a death camp, but a transportation camp. None the less, thousands still died from disease, malnutrition, and brutal conditions. It was also the facility where Gavrilo Princip was held until his death from malnutrition and TB in 1918. I was very surprised to find out that he wasn't tossed up against a convenient wall and shot!

I'm a 1960s era history nerd. There was a tour in Prague focusing on the '68 Warsaw Pact invasion/Prague Spring. I really wanted to go on that tour but time wouldn't permit.

One of my college professors was there during the uprising. He got hit in the head by a police truncheon.

 

[Tidewater]

I'm a 1960s era history nerd. There was a tour in Prague focusing on the '68 Warsaw Pact invasion/Prague Spring. I really wanted to go on that tour but time wouldn't permit.

One of my college professors was there during the uprising. He got hit in the head by a police truncheon.

The film The Bridge at Remagen was filmed in Czechoslovakia in 1968. The director wanted to blow up a big hunk of a town, and the Czechoslovakians were going to demolish village to make way for some public works. The Czechoslovakians said, "Wait, you're going to pay us to blow up the village? We don't have to provide anything but a village? Deal!"
The last day of filming was the day the Soviets invaded.
Director: "Cut! Okay, let's get out of here!"

 

[crimsonaudio]

BREAKING: Three Russian MiG-31 fighters flew into Estonian airspace and headed toward the capital, Tallinn, according to Politico. The jets circled for about 12 minutes before NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to repel them.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969048847277076975

 

[some_al_fan]

BREAKING: Three Russian MiG-31 fighters flew into Estonian airspace and headed toward the capital, Tallinn, according to Politico. The jets circled for about 12 minutes before NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to repel them.

Russia will push the boundaries until it is stopped.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Russia laying groundwork for aggression against Finland According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is conducting a coordinated information campaign against Finland, echoing the rhetoric that preceded the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The campaign's goal is to discredit the Finnish government and paint a picture of internal instability. Just yesterday, several Russian officials issued sharp statements: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Finland had supposedly lost its "neutral gloss" and was in a state of revanchism, while Putin's special envoy Sergey Ivanov declared that relations with Helsinki have been effectively destroyed due to NATO membership.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968963598358646790

 

[Huckleberry]

Russia laying groundwork for aggression against Finland According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is conducting a coordinated information campaign against Finland, echoing the rhetoric that preceded the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The campaign's goal is to discredit the Finnish government and paint a picture of internal instability. Just yesterday, several Russian officials issued sharp statements: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Finland had supposedly lost its "neutral gloss" and was in a state of revanchism, while Putin's special envoy Sergey Ivanov declared that relations with Helsinki have been effectively destroyed due to NATO membership.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968963598358646790

@Tidewater What do you think of this report?

 

[crimsonaudio]

I think this makes the third time NATO's Article IV has been invoked since Russia invaded Ukraine - which has only been done 10 time since 1949...

BREAKING: Estonia officially announces that it’s invoking NATO Article 4 after today’s 12-minute long violation of Estonia’s airspace by three Russian fighter jets

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969111146004181188

 

[crimsonaudio]

The Polish Border Guard is reporting that a pair of Russian fighter jets are performing low passes over Poland’s Lotos Petrobaltic Oil Platform in the Baltic Sea.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969088135150633122

 

[JDCrimson]

Shoot. Them. Down. We should stop screwing around with Russia...