Hamas attacks Israel - Part 2

[crimsonaudio]

Hamas may neither respect nor comply with LOAC, but retaliation needs to be limited and controlled or this will spiral out of control.

I 100% agree, I'm just saying, I'm not upset about it.

Hamas played a stupid game and is finding out. Fair or not, by the rules or not, it is what it is. I don't have to like it to understand why it's happening - vigilante justice is generally considered to be bad, yet I completely understand when a dad murders the guy who molested his kid.

As I said above - if you want your opponent to follow the rules, you should consider doing the same.

 

[Tidewater]

There is a procedure to follow for retaliation, I think.
Notify the offending party that they have violated the LOAC, and that your side will retaliate in a limited and reciprocal manner and once the retaliation is done, then your side will resume compliance with the LOAC unless the other side continues its violations.

Best example I can think of from history came near where I live. John Singleton Mosby's 34th Virginia Cavalry gave Sheridan's forces in the Shenandoah Valley fits, ambushing wagon trains, picking off isolated units and soldiers, etc. Sheridan had no answer. Out of frustration, when Custer captured six of Mosby's men (in uniform) and hanged them near Front Royal. He later hanged another. Mosby (having consulted his superiors) selected seven of Sheridan's men for execution. Five were eventually executed. (two eventually got away). Mosby communicated to Sheridan what he had done and why, and concluded: "Hereafter, any prisoners falling into my hands will be treated with the kindness due to their condition, unless some new act of barbarity shall compel me, reluctantly to adopt a line of policy repugnant to humanity.”

The murder of defenseless prisoners stopped.

Hamas may neither respect nor comply with LOAC, but retaliation needs to be limited and controlled or this will spiral out of control.

Of course, there have been two Geneva Conventions, a Hague Convention, and trials of Nazis for War Crimes since 1864, but Mosby, I think laid out how limited retaliation is done.

 

[Bazza]

This was from a week ago....thought it was worth sharing.

Who would have thought the UN....that bastion of global security......would be involved in the armed attack on Israel.....

 

[Tidewater]

Gazans becoming reconciled to Israeli presence in Gaza after the war.
Palestinians in Gaza Grapple With Prospect of Israeli Presence Postwar
Not sure how significant this is. It is dangerous to tell a journalist that they are willing to have an Israeli presence in Gaza if that it what it takes to end the war. It would not surprise me if Hamas killed these folks as "defeatists" once the story was published.
On the other hand, imagine a German near the end of World War II saying, "I will not tolerate an Allied presence on German soil after the war ends." Most Allied soldiers would reply, "After what you guys have done, better to get used to the idea because we're staying."
No sane person would expect the Allies to leave in 1945 just like no sane person can expect the Israeli military to withdraw from Gaza.
I would expect combat outposts in Gaza, Israeli checkpoints, patrols along the Gaza-Egypt border for the indefinite future, and a significant HUMINT and SIGINT presence inside Gaza. And Hamas better get used to periodic Israeli raids to kill or capture Hamas leadership when the Israelis find where they are hiding.

 

[Its On A Slab]

Gazans becoming reconciled to Israeli presence in Gaza after the war.
Palestinians in Gaza Grapple With Prospect of Israeli Presence Postwar
Not sure how significant this is. It is dangerous to tell a journalist that they are willing to have an Israeli presence in Gaza if that it what it takes to end the war. It would not surprise me if Hamas killed these folks as "defeatists" once the story was published.
On the other hand, imagine a German near the end of World War II saying, "I will not tolerate an Allied presence on German soil after the war ends." Most Allied soldiers would reply, "After what you guys have done, better to get used to the idea because we're staying."
No sane person would expect the Allies to leave in 1945 just like no sane person can expect the Israeli military to withdraw from Gaza.
I would expect combat outposts in Gaza, Israeli checkpoints, patrols along the Gaza-Egypt border for the indefinite future, and a significant HUMINT and SIGINT presence inside Gaza. And Hamas better get used to periodic Israeli raids to kill or capture Hamas leadership when the Israelis find where they are hiding.

Israel will revisit what the UK endured in their military presence during The Troubles. I am quite sure there will be a slow burn resistance from Hamas. Snipers, IEDs. Anything to worry the heck out of the policing forces.

In such an environment, the aim isn't to win. It's to make things so unpleasant that you leave. Vietnam, Afghanistan (Russian misadventure, ours/allies).

 

[Tidewater]

Israel will revisit what the UK endured in their military presence during The Troubles. I am quite sure there will be a slow burn resistance from Hamas. Snipers, IEDs. Anything to worry the heck out of the policing forces.

In such an environment, the aim isn't to win. It's to make things so unpleasant that you leave. Vietnam, Afghanistan (Russian misadventure, ours/allies).

True, but the critical weakness of counterinsurgency efforts is trying to govern the place. If you do not care how its governed, you kill (pre-emptively) those planning on killing Israelis, things might be easier.
Given how effective I believe information operations can be in shaping peoples' perceptions (and through perceptions their behavior), I am surprised the Israelis have not bombarded the Palestinians with propaganda. Themes I would hit (hard):
1. Hamas leaders live in luxury in Dubai off of the donations of Arab states while Gazans live in squalor.
2. Life after Hamas can be so much better for average Gazans, once Hamas stops siphoning off the aid money and stops using the money to build rockets, but instead Gazans use it to build hospitals and schools and apartment blocks.
3. Hamas is never going to win back the land inside Israel and the longer they drag out the conflict, the more Israeli settlements there will be in the West Bank and maybe inside Gaza again.
4. When Hamas has been arrested/killed/driven out of Gaza, Gazans will be able to chose their own leadership and actually start developing Gaza into someplace worth living in.
5. Hamas is the source of all the death, pain, and misery the Gazans have lived through since 2007. Time to put that mistake behind the people of Gaza.

 

[Its On A Slab]

True, but the critical weakness of counterinsurgency efforts is trying to govern the place. If you do not care how its governed, you kill (pre-emptively) those planning on killing Israelis, things might be easier.
Given how effective I believe information operations can be in shaping peoples' perceptions (and through perceptions their behavior), I am surprised the Israelis have not bombarded the Palestinians with propaganda. Themes I would hit (hard):
1. Hamas leaders live in luxury in Dubai off of the donations of Arab states while Gazans live in squalor.
2. Life after Hamas can be so much better for average Gazans, once Hamas stops siphoning off the aid money and stops using the money to build rockets, but instead Gazans use it to build hospitals and schools and apartment blocks.
3. Hamas is never going to win back the land inside Israel and the longer they drag out the conflict, the more Israeli settlements there will be in the West Bank and maybe inside Gaza again.
4. When Hamas has been arrested/killed/driven out of Gaza, Gazans will be able to chose their own leadership and actually start developing Gaza into someplace worth living in.
5. Hamas is the source of all the death, pain, and misery the Gazans have lived through since 2007. Time to put that mistake behind the people of Gaza.

The average Gazan is in a no-win situation. It's so easy to say, "Why don't you resist Hamas?" That is sort of like asking the average German to stand up to the Nazis. Sure, it's an ideal, but you are likely going to be killed if you resist.

Meanwhile, here comes the Israeli Air Force and tanks/bulldozers.

I have friends who have relatives living in Gaza right now. Life there is terrible. And there isn't an easy way out for civilians caught in the crossfire.

 

[NationalTitles18]

It's so easy to say, "Why don't you resist Hamas?"

Most saying it can't even resist Trump and have no credibility as a result.

 

[Tidewater]

The average Gazan is in a no-win situation. It's so easy to say, "Why don't you resist Hamas?" That is sort of like asking the average German to stand up to the Nazis. Sure, it's an ideal, but you are likely going to be killed if you resist.

Meanwhile, here comes the Israeli Air Force and tanks/bulldozers.

I have friends who have relatives living in Gaza right now. Life there is terrible. And there isn't an easy way out for civilians caught in the crossfire.

I would say this, Gazans do not have to resist Hamas themselves. They just have to enable the Israelis to do it.
Once the Israelis have established control over the Gaza-Egypt border, set up combat outposts throughout Gaza, and the ability to conduct raids when they have the intel, Gazans who want to be relieved of Hamas will have to avail themselves of Israel's anonymous tip lines as to who in Hamas is where, so the Israelis can clean out that nest of vipers.
Until Gazans do this on a widespread and persistent basis, Gaza is going to continue to suffer from the presence of Hamas and Gazans are going to have to get used to living in rubble because nobody is going to rebuild anything inside Gaza.

 

[Bamaro]

The average Gazan is in a no-win situation. It's so easy to say, "Why don't you resist Hamas?" That is sort of like asking the average German to stand up to the Nazis. Sure, it's an ideal, but you are likely going to be killed if you resist.

Meanwhile, here comes the Israeli Air Force and tanks/bulldozers.

I have friends who have relatives living in Gaza right now. Life there is terrible. And there isn't an easy way out for civilians caught in the crossfire.

Most support Hamas.

Edit - and hate Israel

 

[Its On A Slab]

Most support Hamas.

I am sure in Saddam's Iraq, most "supported" him. Because to be seen as NOT supporting the tyrant doesn't bode well for your continued existence.

 

[Tidewater]

Most support Hamas.

True, but that is not a permanent opinion. Most Germans supported the Nazi party until the Nazis got their country crushed and occupied. Nowadays, almost nobody in Germany supports Nazis. Even the AfD guys will disavow the Nazis.
Heck, within these United States, we went from "Joe Biden's mental acuity is fine but Kamala is so bad, she should step aside for the good of the country" to "Joe is so senile he has to step aside and Harris is a joyful statesman best suited to lead the country." Public relations/propaganda did that. Within a month.
Israel needs to make the case to Gazans that Hamas has to go, and Israel should make this argument like Israel's future depends on it, because it might.

 

[92tide]

True, but that is not a permanent opinion. Most Germans supported the Nazi party until the Nazis got their country crushed and occupied. Nowadays, almost nobody in Germany supports Nazis. Even the AfD guys will disavow the Nazis.
Heck, within these United States, we went from "Joe Biden's mental acuity is fine but Kamala is so bad, she should step aside for the good of the country" to "Joe is so senile he has to step aside and Harris is a joyful statesman best suited to lead the country." Public relations/propaganda did that. Within a month.
Israel needs to make the case to Gazans that Hamas has to go, and Israel should make this argument like Israel's future depends on it, because it might.

who is we in the second paragraph?

i doubt that kathleen parker's hot take this spring/summer about harris being replaced by hillary got much traction and she is now not coming anywhere close to saying "Joe is so senile he has to step aside and Harris is a joyful statesman best suited to lead the country."

Biden should replace Kamala Harris with Hillary Clinton, Washington Post columnist suggests

President Biden would ease concerns about his advanced age by kicking unpopular VP Kamala Harris off the ticket and replacing her with Hillary Clinton, Kathleen Parker writes.

nypost.com

Opinion | News flash: Kamala Harris is not a remake of Barack Obama

Lacking the former president’s eloquence, Harris is no shoo-in for the Oval Office.

web.archive.org

 

[Tidewater]

who is we in the second paragraph?

i doubt that kathleen parker's hot take this spring/summer about harris being replaced by hillary got much traction and she is now not coming anywhere close to saying "Joe is so senile he has to step aside and Harris is a joyful statesman best suited to lead the country."

Biden should replace Kamala Harris with Hillary Clinton, Washington Post columnist suggests

President Biden would ease concerns about his advanced age by kicking unpopular VP Kamala Harris off the ticket and replacing her with Hillary Clinton, Kathleen Parker writes.

nypost.com

Opinion | News flash: Kamala Harris is not a remake of Barack Obama

Lacking the former president’s eloquence, Harris is no shoo-in for the Oval Office.

web.archive.org

The royal we? Or, we as in Americans.
I went back and checked. Kamala Harris' approval ratings on 21 July went from a disapproval rate of 51.4% versus a 38.3% approval rate or -13.1% . The most recent polling (5 Sep) shows she closed that gap to 48.2 disapprove to 44.0% approve or just -4.2%. Part of that is convention bump, the rest is public relations/propaganda/influence operations.
All I'm saying is that with the right PR campaign/influence ops, you can convince people of a lot. The Israelis should use their dominant position to convince the people of Gaza that Hamas are leeches and causing a lot of Gazans to suffer and that Gazans would be better off without them. It is really in Israel's interest, and that of the Gazans themselves, to convince them of that. Everybody will be better off when Hamas are all dead, in prison, or sincerely penitent.

 

[92tide]

The royal we? Or, we as in Americans.
Part of that is convention bump, the rest is public relations/propaganda/influence operations.

i also think a lot of it is folks actually getting to see her and make their own judgements rather than hear others tell them what harris is all about.

 

[Tidewater]

i also think a lot of it is folks actually getting to see her and make their own judgements rather than hear others tell them what harris is all about.

There is doubtless some of that as well. If you go to the link, here disapproval was steady at a over 50%. In fact, here disapproval rate was over 50% every day since 8 NOV 2021.
Some of her rise is people giving her another look and liking what they see. Some of it is explicit, "I'm a Democrat so I'm going to support whoever the Democrats nominate" and some of it is an implicit or unstated, "Well, the Democrats have nominated her and I'm a Democrat, so she must be alright."

Influence ops/PR/propaganda will be particularly effective at the latter group.

Look at the other side. Trump is not a particularly intelligent guy. He is not a very ethical person. Some loyal Republicans support him simply because he now has an (R) after his name. Some fall for the "Trump hugging the flag" propaganda.

Drive around the Shenandoah Valley you you will see rural homes with Trump signs. What on earth do rural Valley inhabitants have in common with a New York real estate mogul? Why this level of connection? That is the power of propaganda.

Anyway, I think the Israelis should turn that power towards doing some good for themselves and the Palestinians.

 

[UAH]

i also think a lot of it is folks actually getting to see her and make their own judgements rather than hear others tell them what harris is all about.

Our impression here is that she has gained a significant amout of experience as VP and has grown very noticeable in terms of her stage presence and presenting herself more confidently than at the Pence debate last time around. She appears to me to be able to present her position on some highly complex issues such as Israel-Gaza.

I know you have been an advocate for her throughout but we had our doubts. We are all in now!

 

[TIDE-HSV]

There is doubtless some of that as well. If you go to the link, here disapproval was steady at a over 50%. In fact, here disapproval rate was over 50% every day since 8 NOV 2021.
Some of her rise is people giving her another look and liking what they see. Some of it is explicit, "I'm a Democrat so I'm going to support whoever the Democrats nominate" and some of it is an implicit or unstated, "Well, the Democrats have nominated her and I'm a Democrat, so she must be alright."

Influence ops/PR/propaganda will be particularly effective at the latter group.

Look at the other side. Trump is not a particularly intelligent guy. He is not a very ethical person. Some loyal Republicans support him simply because he now has an (R) after his name. Some fall for the "Trump hugging the flag" propaganda.
View attachment 45425
Drive around the Shenandoah Valley you you will see rural homes with Trump signs. What on earth do rural Valley inhabitants have in common with a New York real estate mogul? Why this level of connection? That is the power of propaganda.

Anyway, I think the Israelis should turn that power towards doing some good for themselves and the Palestinians.

The problem is that Israel's leader likely goes to prison, if there's anything approaching peace, maybe even a ceasefire. He's cynically killing the present proposal, all the while blaming Hamas. Bibi needs this war, even if it costs the life of the very last hostage. (And it likely will.)

 

[Tidewater]

The problem is that Israel's leader likely goes to prison, if there's anything approaching peace, maybe even a ceasefire. He's cynically killing the present proposal, all the while blaming Hamas. Bibi needs this war, even if it costs the life of the very last hostage. (And it likely will.)

The easiest thing in the world is keeping a Middle East conflict going. (All it takes is one refusenik)
The hard part getting one to stop.

 

[Bamaro]

What people need to realize, this is not a political issue, it is nearly entirely religious and monetary.