Russia Invades Ukraine IX

[TIDE-HSV]

Here's another Tom Cooper installment, once again in mind-numbing detail...

Tom Cooper

 

[Tidewater]

I've come to the reluctant conclusion that the Ukrainians will lose. IDK know how much - I don't think they'll lose the entire country - but they'll lose. IDK if we could have gotten more weapons, and especially ammo, to them or we hedged our bets too long, but they don't have enough weapons nor ammo, particularly for artillery. The other side of the coin is learning curve. In too many cases, they just don't know yet how to use what they have. It's a sad situation...

I'm afraid you will end up being correct.
The partisan effect can be a very useful adjunct, but partisans alone probably cannot retake ground. French partisans helped against the Germans in 1944. Soviet partisans helped the Red Army in Russia. Without that ground force capable of assuming the offensive, the partisans are a nuisance.
Plus, partisans require a local population which can sustain them with food, shelter, and intel. I have no idea how much of the population in Russian-occupied Ukrainian land has left, gone to ground, favors Kyiv or the Kremlin. My suspicion is that just like in the LPR-DPR 2014-2022, the Russians killed or ejected the pro-Kyiv elements.
At this point, I foresee a stalemate along new confrontation lines, with artillery duel as ammo becomes available, until the Europeans urge Ukraine to make a deal.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I'm afraid you will end up being correct.
The partisan effect can be a very useful adjunct, but partisans alone probably cannot retake ground. French partisans helped against the Germans in 1944. Soviet partisans helped the Red Army in Russia. Without that ground force capable of assuming the offensive, the partisans are a nuisance.
Plus, partisans require a local population which can sustain them with food, shelter, and intel. I have no idea how much of the population in Russian-occupied Ukrainian land has left, gone to ground, favors Kyiv or the Kremlin. My suspicion is that just like in the LPR-DPR 2014-2022, the Russians killed or ejected the pro-Kyiv elements.
At this point, I foresee a stalemate along new confrontation lines, with artillery duel as ammo becomes available, until the Europeans urge Ukraine to make a deal.

I read recently that it's almost all of them. I know I would flee if I could...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Interesting comment by a CNN correspondent in Ukraine this morning. Paraphrasing, he said that Ukraine doesn't have a manpower problem. They have an enormous pool of men ready to go to war. He continued that Russia had much more of a problem in that area. He's a Brit who's been there on the ground, near the front from the beginning. I thought it interesting, in view of our demographic discussions...

 

[92tide]

i really do hope that one day we can do one of these visualizations for putin

 

[Tidewater]

i really do hope that one day we can do one of these visualizations for putin

Given the ossified nature of Putin's regime, I think you will see the system will work until it doesn't, then it will snap suddenly. Currently, anyone who voices opposition to the war gets arrested, so the lack of opposition inside Russia does not really mean much.
Mark Galeotti, a Brit I listen to, says mid-range bureaucrats will keep quiet ad support the regime until it does not make sense to continue that policy. When the winds change, they will change suddenly and decisively.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Given the ossified nature of Putin's regime, I think you will see the system will work until it doesn't, then it will snap suddenly. Currently, anyone who voices opposition to the war gets arrested, so the lack of opposition inside Russia does not really mean much.
Mark Galeotti, a Brit I listen to, says mid-range bureaucrats will keep quiet ad support the regime until it does not make sense to continue that policy. When the winds change, they will change suddenly and decisively.

It makes sense that it would work that way. It's pretty much the Russian way, after all. The way the Russians are fighting the war right now drags their manpower problem out into broad daylight. Sooner or later, their demographic problem has to start stretching their social fabric...

 

[Tidewater]

My guess is that the front lines will resolidify, both sides will dig trenches and go to lobbing the occasional arty shell at the other side.
Once that happens, prying the Russians out of their territorial gains will be exceedingly difficult and costly. Unless there is a substantial anti-Russian partisan population in the Russian rear, the costs to the Russians of holding the land they have gained will drop sharply. With the drop in the Russian casualty rates, the Russian homefront will stabilize.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

My guess is that the front lines will resolidify, both sides will dig trenches and go to lobbing the occasional arty shell at the other side.
Once that happens, prying the Russians out of their territorial gains will be exceedingly difficult and costly. Unless there is a substantial anti-Russian partisan population in the Russian rear, the costs to the Russians of holding the land they have gained will drop sharply. With the drop in the Russian casualty rates, the Russian homefront will stabilize.

Pretty much what I figure. The question is where that front will solidify. Here's an article which goes deeply into Russia's dilemma, and he doesn't even pull in the factor of emigration...

Russia is dissolving

 

[Tidewater]

Pretty much what I figure. The question is where that front will solidify. Here's an article which goes deeply into Russia's dilemma, and he doesn't even pull in the factor of emigration...

Russia is dissolving

The famous quote in which Putin decries the collapse of the USSR was not about him lamenting the end of Soviet socialism, but the stranding of ethnic Russians beyond the borders of the Russian Federation.
“The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” Putin said. “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory. ... The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself,” specifically Chechnya. That is why Putin went hog-wild on Grozny. Not because he really valued having Chechens in the RF (Putin would probably have been just as happy if every single Chechen had died in the Second Chechen War), but he was not going to let one province secede only to be followed another and another.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The famous quote in which Putin decries the collapse of the USSR was not about him lamenting the end of Soviet socialism, but the stranding of ethnic Russians beyond the borders of the Russian Federation.
“The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” Putin said. “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory. ... The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself,” specifically Chechnya. That is why Putin went hog-wild on Grozny. Not because he really valued having Chechens in the RF (Putin would probably have been just as happy if every single Chechen had died in the Second Chechen War), but he was not going to let one province secede only to be followed another and another.

It's clear that's what he regards Ukraine's independence as - a secession...

 

[Tidewater]

Pretty much what I figure. The question is where that front will solidify. Here's an article which goes deeply into Russia's dilemma, and he doesn't even pull in the factor of emigration...

Russia is dissolving

Good take, except the peoples of Kievan Rus did not call their country "Krajina." "Krajina" in old Church Slavonic means "frontier" or "borderlands." They were not the 'border" of anything. They were a principate, centered on Kiev, the capital.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Good take, except the peoples of Kievan Rus did not call their country "Krajina." "Krajina" in old Church Slavonic means "frontier" or "borderlands." They were not the 'border" of anything. They were a principate, centered on Kiev, the capital.

Thanks for the clarification. Wiki pretty much defined it the same way, with the addition of "edge," with the connotation that it was far from the "metropole." I found that amusing, given the history of the Rus and a surprising error for him to make. If there were a frontier, it was the Moscow area...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Thread:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536369901124079617

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Wish there were some way to translate that. Where's Tidewater when you need him...

 

[Tidewater]

Wish there were some way to translate that. Where's Tidewater when you need him...

My Ukrainian is quote poor, but Twitter to the rescue...
"There is a problem around Kharkiv and in the oblast that does not depend on us and will not disappear in the near future. And we will not be able to solve it. Yet. These are artillery shelling from the territory of neighbors."
"Part of our territory, which is doomed to be a gray zone, is under fire from enemy artillery. Because whatever the heroic actions of the infantry, when they approach the border, they come under fire from Russia."
"In addition, enemy artillery is trying to take out the nearby rear, and cut off the logistics with shelling. But the enemy cannot have a permanent foothold there. Therefore, unfortunately, we will have repeated transitions of some settlements from 'hand to hand.'"
"So far, we don't have resources to cover all areas with long-range artillery. And perhaps there are matters more important today for 777 than counter-battery work on the border with Russia. I am sure that as soon as there is something to solve this issue, it will be solved."
"And for now, unfortunately, it is how it is. It is pointless to keep infantry under constant artillery fire indefinitely without any result, just to 'destroy' the destroyed settlement."
"We can save people, and temporarily leave this area a gray zone, not allowing the occupiers to gain a foothold and dig. Weapons will be suitable, the issue will be resolved. And now it is simple to understand that one or another settlement changes its status."
"Unfortunately, almost nothing depends on us there yet. There is nothing [to solve the issue]. Yet."

 

[Tidewater]

Apparently, the Russians are plastering Ukraine from Russian territory (which they have been doing since 2014).
Pragmatically, the Ukrainians are declining to move infantry within range, so, for now, the area will be subject to periodic bombardment from Russia.
Every round fired into the Kharkiv border region, however, is one less Russian arty round to be fired elsewhere.
Russians are coming close to Nazi territory with this behavior, which, given Putler's stated objectives, is ironic.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Wish there were some way to translate that. Where's Tidewater when you need him...

The twitter thread is a translation.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The twitter thread is a translation.

I didn't see it. I'm wrestling with a typical Monday AM...

 

[Tidewater]

I didn't see it. I'm wrestling with a typical Monday AM...

My posts above are the translation.