Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

[arthurdawg]

Germany shutting down all of their reactors and making a full play on Russian fossil fuels did not seem like wisest of courses.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Germany shutting down all of their reactors and making a full play on Russian fossil fuels did not seem like wisest of courses.

And they literally laughed a Trump when he told them this during his first term.

Blind squirrel, broken clock - this seemed obvious to anyone not drunk on the green koolaid...

 

[Huckleberry]

And they literally laughed a Trump when he told them this during his first term.

Blind squirrel, broken clock - this seemed obvious to anyone not drunk on the green koolaid...

Yep. Closing nuclear facilities before fully securing alternative supplies (while deepening ties with Russia) was a strategic blunder. But it fit Germany’s domestic political climate at the time.

 

[arthurdawg]

And they literally laughed a Trump when he told them this during his first term.

Blind squirrel, broken clock - this seemed obvious to anyone not drunk on the green koolaid...

Agreed.

 

[Huckleberry]

https://www.reuters.com/world/drone-breaches-romanian-airspace-during-russian-attack-neighboring-ukraine-2025-09-13/

Drone breaches Romanian airspace during Russian attack on neighboring Ukraine

Romania scrambled fighter jets on Saturday when a drone breached the country's airspace during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure near the border, the defense ministry said.

Defense Minister Ionut Mosteanu said the F-16 pilots came close to taking down the drone as it was flying very low before it left national airspace toward Ukraine.

A threat of drone strikes also prompted Poland to deploy aircraft and close an airport in the eastern city of Lublin on Saturday, three days after it shot down Russian drones in its airspace with the backing of aircraft from its NATO allies.

 

[arthurdawg]

We need another strongly worded remonstration on Truth Social to put an end to these belligerent incursions.

 

[Bamaro]

Ukrainian drones strike one of Russia's top oil refineries, sparking fire

Ukrainian drones overnight struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, sparking a fire, according to Russian officials and Ukraine’s military.

The strike on the Kirishi refinery, in Russia's northwestern Leningrad region, follows weeks of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure that Kyiv says fuels Moscow’s war effort. The facility, operated by Russian oil major Surgutneftegas, produces close to 17.7 million metric tons per year (355,000 barrels per day) of crude, and is one of Russia's top three by output.

We need to see a lot more of this and should provide Ukraine with what they need to accomplish it.

 

[Tidewater]

A friend suggested that this is a great opportunity for NATO to extend it's air defense umbrella into Ukraine and start shooting down Russian drones in Ukrainian airspace.

 

[Tidewater]

We need another strongly worded remonstration on Truth Social to put an end to these belligerent incursions.

Where is Hans Brix when you need him?

 

[UAH]

A friend suggested that this is a great opportunity for NATO to extend it's air defense umbrella into Ukraine and start shooting down Russian drones in Ukrainian airspace.

The fact that Putin has hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads has been enough to keep the European sheep in order for as long as I recall. That along with Trump being such a huge question mark has me believing that Europe will debate and debate until they are directly attacked. Do we believe they would even come to the aid of the NATO countries on the border of Russia or is NATO more likely to come completely apart?

 

[Tidewater]

Any word on the composition of those troops? And that there were 40,000 of them for sure?

And one more consideration: the quality of those troops might be quite poor, but who's going to know?
You can always hide a drop in quality easier than a drop in quantity.

 

[some_al_fan]

And one more consideration: the quality of those troops might be quite poor, but who's going to know?
You can always hide a drop in quality easier than a drop in quantity.

And how do you measure quality?
With all its problems, one thing that we’ve consistently seen from the russian soldiers is the ability to march forward and die. Sure, that is because they are more afraid of their own than of Ukrainians, and it is a ruthless tactic, but it is a tactic nevertheless.
It remains to be seen if any of the NATO armies are willing to take similar sacrifices if attacked by Russia.

P.S. Famous Patton’s quote does not always apply if you have superior numbers

 

[Tidewater]

The fact that Putin has hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads has been enough to keep the European sheep in order for as long as I recall. That along with Trump being such a huge question mark has me believing that Europe will debate and debate until they are directly attacked. Do we believe they would even come to the aid of the NATO countries on the border of Russia or is NATO more likely to come completely apart?

I think so. When presented with the stark alternatives of defending a NATO Ally and risking a wider war or letting collective security fall apart and face all current and future threats alone, the Europeans will act to save the Alliance.
On the other hand, what does "NATO" stand for? No Action Talk Only.
I sincerely believe, however that if a NATO member is overtly invaded by Russia, even by a nuclear-armed Russia, Europe will act to protect that ally.

 

[arthurdawg]

I think so. When presented with the stark alternatives of defending a NATO Ally and risking a wider war or letting collective security fall apart and face all current and future threats alone, the Europeans will act to save the Alliance.
On the other hand, what does "NATO" stand for? No Action Talk Only.
I sincerely believe, however that if a NATO member is overtly invaded by Russia, even by a nuclear-armed Russia, Europe will act to protect that ally.

And hopefully the principle of MAD still holds and the nuclear armaments won't be deployed...

 

[Tidewater]

And how do you measure quality?

A perennial question. I can tell you, knowing very little about the two units, that a Ranger Battalion, and a National Guard infantry battalion are not going to be equal in a battle. Both are volunteer units (you have to volunteer to get in), but they will have wildly disparate combat effectiveness.

With all its problems, one thing that we’ve consistently seen from the russian soldiers is the ability to march forward and die. Sure, that is because they are more afraid of their own than of Ukrainians, and it is a ruthless tactic, but it is a tactic nevertheless.And how do you measure quality?

There are some objective qualifiers (physical fitness test scores, rifle marksmanship scores, but generally, it is the intangibles, the strength of will to resist, will to win. In the film Gettysburg, Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain tells his men, "Today, we are going to have to be stubborn." That hints at the existence of some intangible quality.
Look at most Italian army units in the Second World War. Famous for not having that quality. Look at Iraqi army units in Desert Storm. Fell all over themselves in the rush to surrender to anybody who would accept their surrender. In these two cases, the regime they were defending was awful and treated its soldiers poorly.
Look at Spartans at Thermopylae. They had that intangible quality.
That intangible quality is both precious and susceptible to being undermined.

It remains to be seen if any of the NATO armies are willing to take similar sacrifices if attacked by Russia.

If they understand what is at stake, sure. Estonians and Lithuanians especially so. They know that if they get overrun again, Estonia as a nationality might be completely wiped out this time. I would expect Estonians to fight like Spartans against a Russian invasion.

P.S. Famous Patton’s quote does not always apply if you have superior numbers

Not sure which quote you are referring to.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

It seems to me that Russia has all it can do to fight Ukraine to essentially a stalemate.

I just don't see how they can expand this, and really don't understand why they're poking the bear with clearly intentional incursions into the airspace of non-combatant countries.

 

[some_al_fan]

It seems to me that Russia has all it can do to fight Ukraine to essentially a stalemate.

I just don't see how they can expand this, and really don't understand why they're poking the bear with clearly intentional incursions into the airspace of non-combatant countries.

Russia has multiple benefits with these intentional incursions:
- they are testing and seeing NATO non-response. That is really how they have taken parts of Ukraine, i.e. piece-by-piece and claiming that it is not them. Sort of like moving an Overton window. ( https://tvpworld.com/88852056/russia-denies-drone-attack-as-poland-nato-condemn-airspace-violation )

- they are forcing Poland and other NATO countries to divert resources away from helping Ukraine.

- they are testing Trump's reaction.

In other words, all positives and no negatives so far.
They also seem to be using more Gerberas (really cheap) in order to avoid excessive casualties, but cause significant usage of Patriot and AIM missiles, costing 1-2 million dollar a piece, to shoot them down

 

[Bamaro]

It seems to me that Russia has all it can do to fight Ukraine to essentially a stalemate.

I just don't see how they can expand this, and really don't understand why they're poking the bear with clearly intentional incursions into the airspace of non-combatant countries.

Russia is facing what we faced in Vietnam

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Russia is facing what we faced in Vietnam

Hmmm….I’m not sure I see the commonality. Could you elaborate?

 

[Bamaro]

Hmmm….I’m not sure I see the commonality. Could you elaborate?

Being the greater outside power facing a weaker local power.