Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

[Tidewater]

The embedded link in the article provides a bit more detail:

Ukraine charges seven in $100 million energy graft scandal

Ukrainian authorities charged seven individuals on Tuesday in relation to an alleged $100 million kickback scheme involving senior energy officials that has caused public anger and focused attention on Kyiv's battle against corruption.

www.reuters.com

It would be nice to have more.
The second article says there was an "alleged $100 million kickback scheme "
"Who was paying whom to do what?" would be an obvious question, if I was a journalist investigating this story.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Poland blames sabotage for railway blast on Ukraine delivery line

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk says an explosion on a railway line linking Warsaw to southeastern Poland was an "act of unprecedented sabotage."

apnews.com

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Monday that an explosion on a section of railway line used for deliveries to Ukraine was an “unprecedented act of sabotage.”

A Polish security source told The Associated Press that authorities are investigating whether the blast on Sunday on the line linking Warsaw to southeastern Poland is connected to Russia, Belarus or their proxies.

Tusk has vowed that Poland will catch the perpetrators, “whoever they are.”

Poland in 'pre-war' period amid increased Russian sabotage efforts, top Polish general says

Russia has begun preparing for war with Poland as Moscow continues to escale its cyberattack and acts of sabotage on Polish soil, the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wieslaw Kukula said on Nov. 17.

kyivindependent.com

Russia has begun preparing for war with Poland as Moscow continues to escalate its cyberattacks and acts of sabotage on Polish soil, the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wieslaw Kukula said on Nov. 17.

"(Russia) has begun the period of preparing for war. They are building an environment here intended to create conditions favourable for potential aggression on Polish territory," Kukula told Polskie Radio, Poland's public broadcast radio.

Kukula's comments came just hours before Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that a railway track between Warsaw and Lublin was blown up in an "unprecedented act of sabotage." The railway serves as a means to connect Ukraine with vital Western aid shipments.

To quote Han Solo, "I've got a baaaaaad feeling about this." I'm having a hard time believing that Russia thinks this is actually a good idea.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Poland blames sabotage for railway blast on Ukraine delivery line

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk says an explosion on a railway line linking Warsaw to southeastern Poland was an "act of unprecedented sabotage."

apnews.com

Poland in 'pre-war' period amid increased Russian sabotage efforts, top Polish general says

Russia has begun preparing for war with Poland as Moscow continues to escale its cyberattack and acts of sabotage on Polish soil, the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wieslaw Kukula said on Nov. 17.

kyivindependent.com

To quote Han Solo, "I've got a baaaaaad feeling about this." I'm having a hard time believing that Russia thinks this is actually a good idea.

The problem is that all that matters is the opinion of Putin. Invading Ukraine was a spectacularly bad idea, for many reasons. That's one of the few things Tidewater and I have divided on, because he thought Putin would recognize it as such a bad idea. OTOH, I felt he went so far, he had to save face. I just hope he doesn't get backed into a corner on Poland...

 

[CrimsonJazz]

The problem is that all that matters is the opinion of Putin. Invading Ukraine was a spectacularly bad idea, for many reasons. That's one of the few things Tidewater and I have divided on, because he thought Putin would recognize it as such a bad idea. OTOH, I felt he went so far, he had to save face. I just hope he doesn't get backed into a corner on Poland...

I'm with you on that. One of my personal fears is that NATO is nowhere near as strong as it looks and if Putin has reason to believe that, it would definitely impact his thinking on the matter. The thing I can't seem to let go of is: what if Russia had nothing whatsoever to do with this? Who did? And why? Don't get me wrong; I trust Putin about as far as I could throw him, but I can't bring myself to automatically assume he would take a risk this enormous. I'm not trying to spin a conspiracy theory out of this, but something about it stinks to high heaven.

 

[Tidewater]

Poland blames sabotage for railway blast on Ukraine delivery line

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk says an explosion on a railway line linking Warsaw to southeastern Poland was an "act of unprecedented sabotage."

apnews.com

Poland in 'pre-war' period amid increased Russian sabotage efforts, top Polish general says

Russia has begun preparing for war with Poland as Moscow continues to escale its cyberattack and acts of sabotage on Polish soil, the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wieslaw Kukula said on Nov. 17.

kyivindependent.com

To quote Han Solo, "I've got a baaaaaad feeling about this." I'm having a hard time believing that Russia thinks this is actually a good idea.

That has the marks of a GRU op. One of those, "We didn't do it. At least, you cannot prove we did it."
That is also quite the escalation.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

That has the marks of a GRU op. One of those, "We didn't do it. At least, you cannot prove we did it."
That is also quite the escalation.

Agreed, my automatic reaction is that this was some sort of intel op…..but that doesn’t narrow it down a whole lot. Regardless of the agency responsible, this is very much an escalation.

 

[Tidewater]

Agreed, my automatic reaction is that this was some sort of intel op…..but that doesn’t narrow it down a whole lot. Regardless of the agency responsible, this is very much an escalation.

If "feels" like the GRU. Could be FSB, but they are the internal security agency. Interestingly, the FSB was responsible for ops in Ukraine before the 2022 invasion, which indicates that the Kremlin saw Ukraine as an "internal" problem, i.e. Ukraine was part of Russia.
It could have been the SVR (Служба внешней разведки Российской Федерации, foreign intel agency), but they tend to be collectors, not one that engage in a lot of active measures (активные мероприятия).
All of them compete against each other to impress The Boss and gain his favor.

 

[crimsonaudio]

If "feels" like the GRU. Could be FSB, but they are the internal security agency. Interestingly, the FSB was responsible for ops in Ukraine before the 2022 invasion, which indicates that the Kremlin saw Ukraine as an "internal" problem, i.e. Ukraine was part of Russia.
It could have been the SVR (Служба внешней разведки Российской Федерации, foreign intel agency), but they tend to be collectors, not one that engage in a lot of active measures (активные мероприятия).
All of them compete against each other to impress The Boss and gain his favor.

I hate the oligarchs...

 

[JDCrimson]

The problem is that all that matters is the opinion of Putin. Invading Ukraine was a spectacularly bad idea, for many reasons. That's one of the few things Tidewater and I have divided on, because he thought Putin would recognize it as such a bad idea. OTOH, I felt he went so far, he had to save face. I just hope he doesn't get backed into a corner on Poland...

Its one thing to invade Ukraine. Even without NATO support, it's doubling down on stupid to invade Poland who foams at the mouth to engage with Russia. Imo (and hope), Poland would end whats left of Russia.

 

[Tidewater]

I hate the oligarchs...

I'm none too fond, but this is the Russian state setting off bombs..

 

[crimsonaudio]

I'm none too fond, but this is the Russian state setting off bombs..

You don’t consider Russia an oligarchy?

 

[Its On A Slab]

You don’t consider Russia an oligarchy?

More apt: A Russian state run by oligarchs. Well, at least those who are left who haven't been shoved out a window, off a roof, down a flight of stairs.

 

[Tidewater]

You don’t consider Russia an oligarchy?

Sure. I thought you were making the argument that a particular Russian oligarch or oligarchs were sabotaging Polish rail lines. That I believe is unlikely.
This was the Russian state (regardless of whether it was GRU, SVR, or FSB).

 

[crimsonaudio]

More Russian war crimes.

Russian attack on Ternopil kills 25 in one of deadliest strikes on western Ukraine

Two blocks of flats were destroyed by cruise missiles in the city of Ternopil, Ukraine's air force says.

www.bbc.com

 

[Huckleberry]

Ukraine would cede territory to Russia in draft of Trump peace plan obtained by AP

President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede territory to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft proposal obtained by The Associated Press.

apnews.com

Ukraine would cede territory to Russia in draft of Trump peace plan obtained by AP​

President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.

...

Trump’s push to end the war could drive a wedge between himself and European leaders, who are likely to oppose any agreement that could be seen as rewarding Russian President Vladimir Putin for his aggression, leaving him emboldened rather than defeated.

For example, the proposal would not only bar Ukraine from joining NATO but would also prevent the alliance’s future expansion. Such a step would be a significant victory for Moscow, which views NATO as a threat.

Putin would also gain ground he has been unable to win on the battlefield. Under the draft, Moscow would hold all the eastern Donbas region, even though approximately 14% still remains in Ukrainian hands. Ukraine’s military, currently at roughly 880,000 troops, would be reduced to 600,000.

The proposal opens the door to lifting sanctions on Russia and returning it to what was formerly known as the Group of Eight, which includes many of the world’s biggest economies. Russia was suspended from the annual gathering in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea, a strategically important peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea that is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine.

 

[arthurdawg]

I'm with you on that. One of my personal fears is that NATO is nowhere near as strong as it looks and if Putin has reason to believe that, it would definitely impact his thinking on the matter. The thing I can't seem to let go of is: what if Russia had nothing whatsoever to do with this? Who did? And why? Don't get me wrong; I trust Putin about as far as I could throw him, but I can't bring myself to automatically assume he would take a risk this enormous. I'm not trying to spin a conspiracy theory out of this, but something about it stinks to high heaven.

With Trump not supporting NATO and mostly looking to appease Putin and turn over so many unnecessary concessions on Ukraine... You are spot on.

 

[81usaf92]

You don’t consider Russia an oligarchy?

“What is Caesar, if not the state itself?” Ovid

Basically it is an oligarchy only in formation just like Rome was a Republic under Augustus in formation. The fact that the war has gone on this long, the oligarchs have lost billions of dollars, and there was a near coup points to an uneasy revelation about Putin… he has far more control than anyone actually believed. Alot of people believed that he had a check to his power in the form of the oligarchs but it appears that he doesn’t. This is far more a Stalinist regime than a true oligarchy.

 

[Tidewater]

“What is Caesar, if not the state itself?” Ovid

Basically it is an oligarchy only in formation just like Rome was a Republic under Augustus in formation. The fact that the war has gone on this long, the oligarchs have lost billions of dollars, and there was a near coup points to an uneasy revelation about Putin… he has far more control than anyone actually believed. Alot of people believed that he had a check to his power in the form of the oligarchs but it appears that he doesn’t. This is far more a Stalinist regime than a true oligarchy.

The nature of the Russian state is a spectrum between dictatorship and oligarchy. Some leaders like Stalin and Ivan Grozny achieved dictator status, virtually absolute control, by instilling terror in the heart of every Russian and snuffing out attempts to overthrow the dictator.
Others ruled more collegially. Brezhnev comes to mind. Krushchev was eventually overthrown by the oligarchs in the Politburo.
Putin started out in the Brezhnev territory (the primus inter pares) but over the decades, he is now getting close to Stalin/Ivan Grozny area. He can have almost anyone killed that he wants dead.

The Grim Reaper gets them all in the end, though.

 

[Bamaro]

Ukraine would cede territory to Russia in draft of Trump peace plan obtained by AP

President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede territory to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft proposal obtained by The Associated Press.

apnews.com

Ukraine would cede territory to Russia in draft of Trump peace plan obtained by AP​

President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.

...

Trump’s push to end the war could drive a wedge between himself and European leaders, who are likely to oppose any agreement that could be seen as rewarding Russian President Vladimir Putin for his aggression, leaving him emboldened rather than defeated.

For example, the proposal would not only bar Ukraine from joining NATO but would also prevent the alliance’s future expansion. Such a step would be a significant victory for Moscow, which views NATO as a threat.

Putin would also gain ground he has been unable to win on the battlefield. Under the draft, Moscow would hold all the eastern Donbas region, even though approximately 14% still remains in Ukrainian hands. Ukraine’s military, currently at roughly 880,000 troops, would be reduced to 600,000.

The proposal opens the door to lifting sanctions on Russia and returning it to what was formerly known as the Group of Eight, which includes many of the world’s biggest economies. Russia was suspended from the annual gathering in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea, a strategically important peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea that is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine.

This 'peace' plan is horrendous and has little to no chance of being accepted by Ukraine. Its a disgrace that trump was part of this plan. Makes you wonder again what Putin holds over trump.

 

[Tidewater]

Ukraine would cede territory to Russia in draft of Trump peace plan obtained by AP

President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede territory to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft proposal obtained by The Associated Press.

apnews.com

Ukraine would cede territory to Russia in draft of Trump peace plan obtained by AP​

President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.

...

Trump’s push to end the war could drive a wedge between himself and European leaders, who are likely to oppose any agreement that could be seen as rewarding Russian President Vladimir Putin for his aggression, leaving him emboldened rather than defeated.

For example, the proposal would not only bar Ukraine from joining NATO but would also prevent the alliance’s future expansion. Such a step would be a significant victory for Moscow, which views NATO as a threat.

Putin would also gain ground he has been unable to win on the battlefield. Under the draft, Moscow would hold all the eastern Donbas region, even though approximately 14% still remains in Ukrainian hands. Ukraine’s military, currently at roughly 880,000 troops, would be reduced to 600,000.

The proposal opens the door to lifting sanctions on Russia and returning it to what was formerly known as the Group of Eight, which includes many of the world’s biggest economies. Russia was suspended from the annual gathering in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea, a strategically important peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea that is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine.

One thing that strikes me as odd is the apparent Russian fixation on gaining control over all of the land in Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Why not just redraw the boundaries of the oblasts to coincide with what Russia now holds? Why is this 14% left in Ukrainian hands so important to the Russians? It might be only as a humiliation ritual for the Ukrainians.

As for limits on Ukraine military and limits on NATO expansion, I do not think those would be worth the paper they are printed on. Ukraine, by a clever manipulation of units on active duty and reserve status could easily make up the difference between 600,000 and 880,000. As for NATO expansion, in four years, if Georgia were to formally ask for NATO membership, and Russia were to point to this Ukraine Peace Deal and say, "No. Not allowed." Georgia could easily say, "We were not parties to any peace deal. It does not restrict us."